Email: Thu, Aug 21, 2014 at 10:29 AM 8/21/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 965 Los Angeles Angels* -123 vs Boston Red Sox M Shoemaker - R Listed R De La Rosa - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.81 (WINNER) 8/21/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 965 Los Angeles Angels* -1½ +140 vs Boston Red Sox M Shoemaker - R Listed R De La Rosa - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.40 (WINNER) This is one of those games in sports where a team is likely going to step up and play a game with added motivation. The Angels lost Richards to a gruesome knee injury in the 2nd inning last night. I am willing to bet that Manager Mike Scioscia is going to use the injury as extra motivation to keep his team focused and get a big win for Garret tonight. To add to the motivation factor the Angels are clearly a more dominant team and Boston is struggling at home right now. They are 3-7 for the month of August at home and they haven't looked good at the plate all series long vs the Angels. The pitching matchup is pretty even with Shoemaker ERA 3.84 and De La Rosa at 3.79, the big difference here is the motivation factor that the Angels will have to get the win for Richards. Lets Get It Rob
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Email: Wed, Aug 20, 2014 at 11:52 AM 8/20/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 915 Los Angeles Angels* -136 vs Boston Red Sox for 1st 5 Innings G Richards - R Listed C Buchholz - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.47 (WINNER) 8/20/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 915 Los Angeles Angels* -1½ +120 vs Boston Red Sox G Richards - R Listed C Buchholz- R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.20 (WINNER) The Red Sox have lost 5 in a row with Clay Bucholz starting, he is struggling with a 5.79 ERA and he is up against one of the best in the business tonight in Garrett Richards. Richards is pitching to a 2.52 ERA. The Angels have won all 3 of Richards starts in August and he looks like the type of guy to perform well down the stretch. The huge ERA gap should give the Angels ample opportunity to get a lead by the 5 inning mark Especially with Trout hitting .444 at Fenway park, and I am going with an additional unit for the defense to clean things up and hold on for a multi run win tonight. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Aug 19, 2014 at 10:29 AM 8/19/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 953 Arizona Diamondbacks* +1½ -109 vs Washington Nationals C Anderson - R Listed S Strasburg - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.92 (Loss) 8/19/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 953 Arizona Diamondbacks* +215 vs Washington Nationals C Anderson - R Listed S Strasburg - R Listed Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 2.15 (Loss) I am going with Arizona on both the + Run line and the ML today. This is a road dog system play. We are getting a pitcher with a better record in Anderson at 7-4 on the year ERA 3.16 and Arizona has won 9 of his 15 starts this year, compared to Strasburg who comes in at 9-10 on the year ERA 3.53. Strasburg has lost 4 of his last 6 starts on top of that. While the D-Backs have won 4 of Andersons last 6 starts. If we look at the ML wins and losses Anderson is up +487 and Strasburg is -615 on the year. I don't normally take +1.5 run lines but looking at the recent performance makes this a safer play. 7 of Arizona's last 8 games have been decided by 1 run. Washington has been on a win streak, but it hasn't been convincing they have won 5 of their last 6 games by 1 run. I actually like Arizona to win this one tonight, and with the added bonus of getting the +1.5 for basically even money we are taking both lines. 8/19/2014 10:05 PM Reduced Baseball 980 Oakland Athletics* -1½ +105 vs New York Mets D Gee - R Listed S Kazmir - L Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 2.10 (WINNER) I like a return home and a day off to be just what Oakland needs to break out of this funk. Looking at this year they have covered the run line in 10 of 15 games after returning home with a day off after a loss. They are also starting their Ace in Kazmir who hasn't lost 2 straight games since June. Looking at recent team stats even with the losing streak Oakland is clearly the dominate scoring team. Since the All Star break Oakland is averaging 4.52 runs per game, good for 5th overall. Compare that to the Mets who are dead last in the MLB at 2.96 runs per game. Give me the plus money on the highest scoring team in baseball tonight. Lets Get It Rob Email: Mon, Aug 18, 2014 at 1:06 PM 8/18/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 432 Washington Redskins* -2 -108 vs Cleveland Browns Risking 2.00 To Win 1.85 (Loss) 8/18/2014 8:00 PM NFL Football 432 Washington Redskins* -3½ +145 vs Cleveland Browns Risking 1.00 To Win 1.45 (Loss) Today I am going with Washington to cover the spread at -2 and also another 1 unit on Washington to win by 4 or more. Washington has far more experience at the QB position and has performed excellently in preseason play for the past few years. They won all 4 games in 2013 and crushed New England in game 1 of their 2014 campaign. The reason they are doing so well is that Washington has one of the toughest QB battles going on this pre-season and they have starting QB talent in for basically the entire game., all three looked great in game 1. Cousins went 9 of 13 for 103 yards, Girffin didn't play much but went 2 of 4 and the biggest surprise was Mccoy who went 8 of 9 for 102 yards. I expect more of this kind of play tonight. On the other hand we have Cleveland, there has been a lot of hype this year around Johnny Football but thus far things haven't really materialized, in his first game he went 7 for 11 for 63 yards while adding 27 yards on six carries. Brian Hoyer has the starting job at the moment but he was also not to impressive in his first game going 6 for 14 for 92 yards. Looks like the 3rd string backup for Cleveland will be Rex Grossman tonight, and if things are close down the stretch I'll take the Redskins and McCoy to get over Grossman anytime. 8/18/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 915 Seattle Mariners* -1½ +115 vs Philadelphia Phillies R Elias - L Listed J Williams - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.15 (Loss) Seattle has been on fire lately. They have won 10 of their last 12 games and covered the run line in every single one of the wins. Elias has pitched well his last 4 outings where he has earned 2 wins, 1 loss and 1 no decision. He hasn't allowed more than 2 runs in any one of those 4 games. Williams comes into this game at 2-5 on the year. He picked up a no decision in his first game for the Phillies on Tuesday where he pitched 5.1 innings allowed 5 hits and 2 runs, however he comes into this game with an ERA of 6.43 on the year. Over all I give the slight pitching advantage to the Mariners here, and a HUGE momentum advantage to the Mariners as the Phillies have won just 3 of their last 10 games. There isn't enough value in the Mariners at -154 on the ML. So I am sticking with a 1 unit play on the run line, looking at their recent play, if they win, they should win by 2 or more, and facing Williams I think that is a high percentage probability of a multi-run win. Lets Get It Rob Email: Sun, Aug 17, 2014 at 10:40 AM 8/17/2014 2:15 PM Reduced Baseball 955 San Diego Padres/St. Louis Cardinals* Under 7 -108 O Despaigne - R Listed A Wainwright - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.39 (Loss) Both of these teams have been cashing the under consistently. The total has gone under in 7 of Wainwrights last 10 starts, San Diego has been cashing the under regularly, 9 of their last 13 games have totaled 7 or fewer runs. 8/17/2014 5:05 PM Reduced Baseball 963 Pittsburgh Pirates/Washington Nationals* Under 7½ -110 E Volquez - R Listed D Fister - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (Loss) This one looks like a pitcher duel to me. Both Fister and Volquez have been very consistent lately and holding teams to very low numbers. Volquez comes with the Pitates winning 8 of his last 10 starts, the Nationals have won 7 of Fisters last 10 and he has held the last 6 teams to 2 or fewer runs in each game. Play the under here. Lets Get It Rob Email: Sat, Aug 16, 2014 at 8:04 AM 8/16/2014 9:10 PM MLB Baseball 914 Los Angeles Dodgers* -1½ +125 vs Milwaukee Brewers Y Gallardo - R Listed C Kershaw - L Listed Risking 2.00 to win 2.50 (Loss) Going with Kershaw today. The main reason is that the brewers have been struggling to put up runs and Kershaw hasnt been giving any up. I like the Dodgers to get at least 4 or 5 today on Gillardo. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Aug 15, 2014 at 8:16 AM 8/15/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 967 Baltimore Orioles* +148 vs Cleveland Indians W Chen - L Listed C Kluber - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.48 (Loss) Chen had a bad game last time we took him vs the Jays, I expect him to bounce back strong today and with the best bullpen in MLB if this one is close down the stretch I like our chances of the Orioles. 8/15/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 971 Houston Astros* +140 vs Boston Red Sox D Keuchel - L Listed C Buchholz - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.40 (WINNER) Neither team has been great since the all-star break, but tonight we are taking the better pitcher with Plus money odds. I like Houston's chances to even the series tonight. 8/15/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 973 Los Angeles Angels* -1½ -125 vs Texas Rangers G Richards - R Listed N Martinez - R Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.60 (Loss) 8/15/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 973 Los Angeles Angels* -3½ +210 vs Texas Rangers G Richards - R Listed N Martinez - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 1.05 (Loss) We are continuing to fade the Rangers tonight. They are just not scoring runs, and tonight doesn't get any easier with this pitching matchup. The Angels are starting one of the best in the business in Richards. I expect this one to be in the 6-2 neighborhood like last night's game vs the Rays. The Angels are 2nd for runs this year, but haven't been as strong since the All Star break, I expect them to get back on track tonight against a struggling texas team Starting Martinez who is ERA 5.22 and 2-8 on the year. A team like the Angels should feast on this team tonight. Lets Get It Rob Email: Thu, Aug 14, 2014 at 8:32 AM 8/14/2014 8:05 PM MLB Baseball 917 Tampa Bay Rays* -125 vs Texas Rangers J Odorizzi - R Listed R Ross - L Listed Risking 2.00 To Win 1.60 (WINNER) 8/14/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 917 Tampa Bay Rays* -1½ +125 vs Texas Rangers J Odorizzi - R Listed R Ross - L Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.25 (WINNER) This game was badly misprices from the beginning. That's why most sports books didn't open it until 10am this morning. The overnight line was posted at +120 for the Rays!!! Ridiculous considering they are out batting and out pitching the Rangers by over a 2 to 1 margin. Looking at the month of August the Rays have scored 56 runs in 12 games good for 4.67 runs per game on avg. The Rangers are at 43 on 12 games good for 3.58 and again this is inflated by the 16-0 win over the White Sox on Aug 4th, take that out and we are looking at 2.45 runs per game in the month of Aug. Just look at this series... the Rays have outscored the Rangers 19-4!!! Looking at Tampa they are 4-1 in Odorizzi's last 5 starts, including run line covers. Odorizzi comes into the game at 8-9 with a 3.89 ERA and a WHIP 1.30 he shut the Cubs out for 6 innings in his last outing. Texas hands the ball to Ross who has been working out of the bullpen for the most part... if you call what he's been doing work, his stats are an absolute dogs breakfast. I would say he is the soft underbelly of the Rangers bullpen that most teams are salivating to get to. It's dinnertime and the Rays should have a feast tonight. Note this line has already moved from -125 when I sent the play out at about 10am to it to -134 on 5Dimes. (FYI this is one of the was you can tell the models are working, if the model predicts a higher line and the public moves towards it on a NON-major market game, we have an accurate model) 8/14/2014 2:20 PM MLB Baseball 903 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs* Under 7.5 -120 M Fiers - R Listed E Jackson - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.25 (Loss) 8/14/2014 2:20 PM MLB Baseball 903 Milwaukee Brewers* -130 vs Chicago Cubs M Fiers - R Listed E Jackson - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.77 (WINNER) This is my 2nd play of the day. Neither one of these teams has been lighting up the score board, in fact the total for Milwaukee games has gone 7 or under in 5 straight and in 18 of 25 games since the All Star break, Chicago has gone under 7 runs or under in 6 straight and 13 of 25 since the All Star break. Looking at those stats alone we have a 62% chance of the total being 7 or less which gives us true value odds of (-163) (not factoring in starters) and we are getting this game at -120 on the under 7.5 line. When we factor in the starters I like Milwaukee to get another quality start out of Fiers. He went 8 innings in his last start vs a very good LA Dodgers team and only allowed 1 run. The risk with the under comes from the Cubs who are starting Jackson who comes into this game with a 5.61 ERA at 6-12 on the year with a WHIP of 1.56. So the play here becomes take the under 7.5 for 1.5 units and play on Milwaukee for 1 unit as they should win this game and may end up blowing the Cubs out. Lets Get It Rob Email: Wed, Aug 13, 2014 at 2:03 PM 8/13/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 963 New York Yankees/Baltimore Orioles* Under 7 +155 M Pineda - R Listed C Tillman - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.55 (Loss) I am taking the alternate under line here. The line at under 7 provides great value at +155 in a game that should be a pitchers duel . Tillman has looked great lately including his last 2 outings where he has only allowed 8 hits and 2 runs over the last 13.2 innings of work, this includes a shutout of Seattle. Baltimore has been putting up some big batting numbers lately but it has mostly been against struggling pitchers. Assuming Pineda is fully recovered to make his return from the 60 Day DL, I like this to be a low scoring game. I am making a conservative play with only 1 unit with a great plus money payout at +155. 8/13/2014 8:05 PM MLB Baseball 965 Tampa Bay Rays* -½ -110 vs Texas Rangers for 1st 5 Innings C Archer - R Listed M Mikolas - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.36 (WINNER) I really like the Rays to bounce back tonight after the bullpen blew it for them last night. That being said, I have more faith in Chris Archer than I do the bullpen. Archer is undefeated in his last 4 starts and has a sub 2 ERA at 1.95. The Rays have been fantastic at limiting early runs. They haven't allowed one in the first half of any one of their last 4 games. Texas is starting Mikolas who has only 1 win in 7 games played for the Rangers with an ERA of 6.57. The Rays are also putting up more runs than the Rangers and doing it more consistently. Since the AS break the Rangers are averaging 3.66 runs per game and that includes the 16-0 win vs the White Sox, take that game out and the average drops to 3.13. The Rays have been more consistent and are averaging 4.09 since the AS break. Go with the better pitching and better batting to get an early lead here. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Aug 12, 2014 at 11:32 AM 8/12/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 903 Washington Nationals* -1½ +120 vs New York Mets D Fister - R Listed R Montero - R Listed Risking 2.50 To Win 3.00 (WINNER) This one should be a fairly straight forward game for Washington. They are starting one of their Aces in Doug Fister who comes into this game at 11-3 on the year ERA at 2.49 and WHIP at 1.07. He is fresh off a 7-1 win over the Mets last outing where he pitched 7.1 innings of 1 run ball. The Nationals have won 5 of his last 6 starts, and they have won 4 of them by 2 or more runs. The one loss was a 1-2 loss to Philly. Fister's ERA is down at 1.97 over his last 6 games. The Mets are starting Montero who they recalled in place of Degrom. So far Montero hasn't looked good in his 4 starts earlier this season. He has a 5.40 ERA. Reading the reviews I expect the problem with Montero will be pitch control and walks which usually leads to losses. To make things more one sided the Nationals have 98 runs over 23 games since the All Star break good for 4.26 per game, compare that to the Mets at 77 over 24 games they are averaging only 3.20 per game. With a full run extra per game and a much better pitcher I expect this will be a decisive win for the Nationals. My math suggests this line should be closer to -105 or -115 on the Run line here, which means we are getting 25-35% on our money. 8/12/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 923 Arizona Diamondbacks* +172 vs Cleveland Indians J Collmenter - R Listed T House - L Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 2.58 (Postponed) This is a great underdog value play, Arizona is starting Collmenter who seems to be one of their best team pitchers. Meaning they win when he starts, they have won 7 of his last 10 starts which is fantastic for a team that seems to lose as many games as Arizona. They are 13-7 behind him for the season as a starter for a ML win of +729. When we look at Arizona's performance since the All Star break they are 11-11 but have played very well, their batting average is at .261 good for 7th overall in the MLB and they have scored 100 runs in 22 games good for 4.54 runs per game which is better than Cleveland at 4.37. Arizona also bats slightly better against lefties, which should work for tonight's game vs Cleveland, starting TJ House ERA 4.13 and 1-3 on the season in games he received a decision in and Cleveland is 6-5 on the year overall in games he started in. Bottom line with this play is that in my opinion it's basically a coin flip, I would even say a 5-4 edge for Arizona, but when we look at the odds we are getting +172 this becomes an amazing value play for Arizona. Lets Get It Rob |
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