11/14/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 54 Philadelphia Flyers* -1½ +150 vs Columbus Blue Jacket
Risking 2.00 To Win 3.00 (Loss)
I really like this play as Philly has been a fantastic team to take at home both last year and so far this year. They are a different team on home ice, looking at their goals for at home they average 3.6 while on the road they only average 2.6. Combine that with how bad Columbus has been overall and especially on the road and we have a very solid puck line system play here. Columbus has been just destroyed by injuries and they have lost 9 straight games, and lost 7 of those 9 by 2 or more goals.
This play only needs to win 40% of the time to break even with a payout of +150. If we look at columbus' last 10 games they have lost by 2 or more 7 times. This includes losing to teams like Carolina who are no where near as good as the Flyers. Philly has won 5 straight at home and covered the puck line in 3 of those wins. They have played teams like Edmonton and Florida who I put about on par with Columbus right now, and covered the puck line with no trouble.
Overall I give this play an over 60% chance of winning which means this is a very profitable long run play.
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Author - Rob Holiday
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