Sat, Oct 18, 2014 at 8:05 AM
10/18/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 325 Baylor/West Virginia* Over 81 -110
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (Loss)
I normally shy away from totals this high, but in this case I have to make a play. Baylor loves getting into Shootouts, and historically this game has always been a shootout. I like WVU to keep this one close, but I really think Baylor will pull away late. With all of the quick strike offense I like Baylor in the 50s and WVU in the 40s, which will push this total of 81 over.
10/18/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 351 Cincinnati U/SMU* Over 63 -105
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss)
We already have a play going on Cincinnati in this game, I am adding a play on the over. These two teams are both terrible on defense, and I like this game to showcase a lot of offense. We know that Cinci can put up points, and I think SMU will take some momentum from their last game and score a few TDs to push this one over.
Mon, Oct 13, 2014 at 1:36 PM
10/18/2014 3:30 PM College Football 351 Cincinnati U* -13.5 -116 vs SMU
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.72 - Buy a half point (WINNER)
Lock in an early play here again as I could see this line moving too. The public hates SMU so I expect there to be a lot of action coming in on Cincinnati. After starting out with 2 solid wins the Bearcats have struggled the last few weeks, losing to some quality opponents. This week should be an opportunity to take out some frustrations on a much weaker SMU team. SMU got their first cover of the year a couple weeks ago when they finally scored their first TD of the year... in week 5! I think this one is going to be a very high scoring game, as neither team plays much defense, SMU is dead last at 128th in points allowed at 49.4 points allowed per game, Cincinnati comes in just behind at 124th allowing 40.8 points per game. I will probably be making a play on the over in this game too once it comes out, but for now we can lock in the spread play at -13.5. Make sure you buy the half point to get it below 14.
10/18/2014 2:00 PM College Football 319 Akron* -3 -110 vs Ohio
Risking 3.00 To Win 2.73 (Loss)
This line just opened up on 5Dimes. It looked like it was going to open at about -5 but came out at -3. I really like this at only a field goal. The books have been holding this line back to wait for the announcement on Kyle Pohl’s injury, I am pulling the trigger now because I don’t think it makes any difference.
Pohl has been good, but Akron is a very well balanced team with the run and pass. Looking at last week they did just fine after he went out just before half time. Tommy Woodson stepped in and completed 7/14 for 64 yards. The Zips scored 2 more TDs behind Woodson in the 2nd half and didn’t seem to miss a beat. So I am going with 3 units on this play. Akron has a quality win over Pittsburgh, and have played some very solid defense. Their only losses are to Penn State and Marshall both power teams. Looking at this matchup, Akron comes in with a +6.3 points per game differential whereas Ohio is -7.6. Ohio can play some defense, but they haven’t been able to move the ball on offense. Akron is only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, so I think they are getting some additional padding from the book here. History between these two also doesn’t favor Akron as they have struggled in the past vs Ohio, losing their last 5 games. This is a much improved team and I think we are getting a lower line due to the pending injury report, but I love the value on Akron with or without Pohl. They will get it done on defense and score enough on offense to cover the 3 points. We may also get a bump on the line if the report comes out the Pohl will be playing, but again thats just gravy on top.
10/18/2014 6:00 PM College Football 313 Marshall* -21 -120 vs Florida International
Risking 3.00 To Win 2.50 (WINNER)
Marshall has been rolling teams all year long, they are winning their games by an average of 30.67 points. They showed last week that they have no intentions of taking a foot off the gas with a lead. They are 2nd in the nation on points scored at 47.8 and rank 8th in points allowed at 17.2. This week they are up against FIU who on paper look decent, but when you step back and look at who they have played the picture looks much worse. They come into this game allowing only 19.9 points per game, but the only 2 quality opponents they have played were Louisville who beat them 34-3, and Pittsburgh who beat them 42-25. Marshall is scoring way more points than either Louisville or Pittsburgh and they seem to be just as good on defense. I think this one ends up being another blowout for the Thundering Herd, at around 42-13. NOTE there is currently 80 of the public on Marshall, this line will likely move up, so lock it in now at -21.
10/18/2014 8:00 PM College Football 361 Washington U* +21 -110 vs Oregon
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (Loss)
This is an interesting one, the line opened at 19.5 and jumped to 21 on an early week reverse line move, it leads me to believe there is some big money coming in on Oregon at under 3 tds, but now that we have reached a key number at 21 I don't think it will move much more and I really don't think we should be getting this many points on Washington. The Huskies have a very solid defense as we saw last week when they shut down Cal. They come into this game at 5-1 on the year, and haven't allowed over 20 points since week 1. I don't expect them to win this one, but I'll take the 21 points. Oregon bounced back from their loss vs Arizona, but I am still not sold on their ability to perform consistently. They nearly let UCL catch up last weekend, they only beat Washington State by 7 points and I don't think they will roll this huskies defense very easily. Lock this in now at +21.
Sat, Oct 18, 2014 at 11:37 AM
10/18/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 3 New York Islanders/Pittsburgh Penguins* Over 5½ -128
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.78 (Loss)
10/18/2014 7:05 PM NHL Hockey 3 New York Islanders/Pittsburgh Penguins* Over 6½ +120
Risking 0.50 To Win 0.60 (Loss)
Both teams averaging well over 4 goals per game, this should be another high scoring shootout. Pittsburgh averaging 4.33 per game and allowing 3 goals per game, NY Islanders scoring 4.5 and allowing 3.0 per game. Add it up and we have a play on over 5.5 and over 6.5.
10/18/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Hockey 1 San Jose Sharks/New Jersey Devils* Over 5½ +140
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.40 (WINNER)
This is another one I like the over in. NJ is averaging 3.75 goals per game and allowing 3, San Jose is scoring 3.75 and allowing 2. New Jersey is playing their home opener historially they have been even better at home, and San Jose is one a long road trip, I think this one comes in right at 6 goals, and we are getting great value at +140 here.
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