Mon, Oct 13, 2014 at 12:08 PM
10/13/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 277 San Francisco 49ers* -3 -120 vs St. Louis Rams
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.67 (WINNER)
Note this is offered at -3 up to -4.5 depending on your book. The -3 line is at 5dimes - Make sure you get it at -3 as this is a key number.
In tonight's game I am going to side with the 49ers. Looking at this matchup there are a couple of key things that give the 49ers the edge in this game. Frist off they have a very solid run game, with Frank Gore, who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and Carlos Hyde 3.9 per carry, this should spell disaster for the Rams who are 31st in the league at stopping the run, allowing 152.5 yards per game.
Looking at St. Louis 2 home games thus far, they played Minnesota (with Peterson) and Dallas, but teams who rely heavily on a run game. Minnesota smoked them for 185 yards on the ground, and Dallas put up 123. Note that the Dallas game was a huge comeback which required a lot of passing on top of the run. St. Louis should in all likelihood have some trouble slowing San Fran down on 1st down, and 3rd and short should be a given.
St. Louis does have a very good pass defense, its actually 1st overall, which leads me to believe that the 49ers will be even more likely to rely on the run, given their passing game is ranked 28th in the league. Looking at the Rams offense, they have put up some points these last few weeks, but it hasn't been enough to get them wins. They let a 21 point lead slip away to Dallas, and fell behind to Philly early last week. Austin Davis has performed well, but it's been against some teams that are not as solid and well-rounded on defense as San Fran. Neither Dallas nor Philly rank in the top 10 on defense, whereas San Fran comes into this game ranked 3rd against the pass and 5th against the run. I think Davis is going to struggle to keep his offense on the field, and if San Fran gets a lead, they will use the run game to chew clock and grind out first downs.
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Author - Rob Holiday
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