Email: Wed, Dec 3, 2014 at 12:12 PM 12/3/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Basketball 715 Philadelphia 76ers* +7 -105 vs Minnesota Timberwolves Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (WINNER) 12/3/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Basketball 715 Philadelphia 76ers* +260 vs Minnesota Timberwolves Risking 1.00 To Win 2.60 (WINNER) This is a do or die game for the 76ers they are 0-17 on the year, which has them 1 game away from tying the all-time worst start in the history of the NBA – which belongs to the 2009 New Jersey Nets 0-18.Tonight the 76ers are playing the Minnesota Timberwolves who are a team they actually have a great shot at beating, the Wolves are 4-12 on the year and are currently 1-4 over their last 5 games. Minnesota does hold the recent trend in this matchup winning the last 3 home games vs Philly, but they haven't exactly been a great home team this year going just 2-5 on the year so far. The NBA doesn’t have the parity of the NFL, but any team (well almost any team) can win on any given night as these guys are all pros. This is a great spot for Philly to get a win, based on the motivating factor of not wanting to be part of the worst record in history, I think they get it done tonight. On an additional note, their next game is against the Thunder who just got Durant back, so this looks like the game they need to win to avoid the worst start in ever. Lets Get It Rob
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Email: Tue, Dec 2, 2014 at 9:08 AM 12/2/2014 7:35 PM Reduced Hockey 59 Tampa Bay Lightning* -1½ +155 vs Buffalo Sabres Risking 1.00 To Win 1.55 (Loss) 12/2/2014 7:35 PM Reduced Hockey 59 Tampa Bay Lightning* -2 +235 vs Buffalo Sabres Risking 1.00 To Win 2.35 - Line at Bet365 (Loss) We have the highest scoring team in Hockey playing the lowest scoring team in hockey tonight. To date Tampa has scored 90 goals, for an average of 3.6 goals per game. Buffalo has scored a total of 40 goals for an average of 1.66 goals per game. Tampa is scoring just as many goals on the road as they are at home. They are covering the puck line in 40% of their games 10 out of 25 so far. Buffalo is actually coming into this game off a home win over Montreal. This is a mid-week game, the crowed with probably be fairly thin in Buffalo, so there won’t be much of a home ice advantage. Buffalo has lost 11 of their 24 games by 2 or more. I would say we have a greater than 50% chance of winning the puck line bet and about a 40% chance of winning the -2 bet. It's not often that we get plus money on the puck line when the highest scoring team plays the lowest scoring team in hockey. Take 2 units on the puck line if you cant get the -2 line. Lets Get It Rob Email: Mon, Dec 1, 2014 at 8:22 AM 12/1/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 475 Miami Dolphins* -6½ -112 vs New York Jets Risking 2.00 To Win 1.79 (Loss) Lock this in at -6.5 as I wouldn't be surprised if it went back up to 7 by kickoff time. The Public is all over the Dolphins tonight, as this seems to be the year of the public bettor. I have to imagine there is some sharp action coming in on the Jets as they really have nothing to lose tonight, but on the other side of the ball the Dolphins are actually playing for a potential playoff spot. There are currently 5 AFC teams at 7-5, the Dolphins need this win to keep pace. They are up against a Jets team that has been absolutely terrible on both sides of the ball. They managed only 3 points last week vs the Bills. Vick was brutal and got benched for Geno Smith, who we all know is a turnover machine. I just don’t see the Jets having anywhere to turn at the QB position and with Miami playing very solid football I don’t think this is going to be a competitive game. My projection 27-10 Miami. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Nov 28, 2014 at 4:38 PM 11/30/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 456 Buffalo Bills* -3 -120 vs Cleveland Browns Risking 4.00 To Win 3.33 (WINNER) I am making a rare 4 unit play on the Bills this week. This is just a really good spot for Buffalo, they come back home after having to play the game at Ford Field. The home town crowed has been through a disaster recently with all the snow and emergencies that created. The team will be extra extra motivated to get a win for the city. I am sure its going to be a sellout. Also if by chance there is snow, I like Buffalos chances even better with Orton’s passing attack. On top of that Buffalo clearly has the better defense, and I think Cleveland is due for a loss, after they squeaked by Atlanta last week. This is a huge home field motivation factor game. The home team tends to pull it out when this type of thing happens. Make the big play on Buffalo and lock it in now, as this line will keep moving. Email: Tue, Nov 25, 2014 at 11:02 AM 11/30/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 459 New York Giants* -2½ -110 vs Jacksonville Jaguars Risking 3.00 To Win 2.73 (Loss) This line opened at -1 which was way off in my opinion. The Giants looked very solid on Sunday night and nearly beat the Cowboys. I think this line will keep moving to at least 3 maybe 3.5 by kickoff. Lock it in now. Teaser- ties reduce - NFL sides 6 pts -110 11/27/2014 12:30 PM NFL Football 306 Detroit Lions* -1 vs Chicago Bears 11/30/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 464 St. Louis Rams* -1 vs Oakland Raiders Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER) Key here is to get both of these teasers down to 1 point. Use a 6.5 point teaser if you have to in order to get Detroit down to 1. I think Detroit will play this one tight, but score just enough points to get the win. Chicago will play very hard today as this is one of the biggest games they have left this year. Oakland left it all out on the feild last week, I think they come out flat in a nothing game vs St Louis. Teaser - ties win - NFL sides 6½ pts -128 11/30/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 453 Tennessee Titans* +14 vs Houston Texans 11/30/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 465 New Orleans Saints* +10½ vs Pittsburgh Steelers Risking 2.00 To Win 1.56 (Loss) Teasing up the points here on two teams that I think are way undervalued. The key with this one is to make sure you get it up to +14 on the Titans. Email: Sun, Nov 30, 2014 at 12:16 PM 11/30/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 474 Kansas City Chiefs* -1 -105 vs Denver Broncos Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss) I think the Chiefs are going to show up big time tonight in prime time at home. The crowed is going to make things very difficult on Manning, he struggles to audible when its as noisy as it will be at arrowhead. I think this one is going to be a close game, and the difference is going to be how banged up Denver is on offence. Payton just doesn't have all his weapons, and I think they struggle tonight. Lets Get It Rob Email: Sat, Nov 29, 2014 at 8:31 AM 11/29/2014 12:00 PM Reduced Football 345 Michigan/Ohio State* Over 54 -108 Risking 2.00 to win 1.85 at -108 (WINNER) This is one of the biggest rivalry games in College football and I really think this total is set way too low. They opened it at 51.5 its been climbing ever since, I like Michigan to put up some points, probably in the 1st half before Ohio State pulls away for a comfortable Win. I will be sending another email with the rest of the picks shortly. Email: Sat, Nov 29, 2014 at 9:35 AM 11/29/2014 3:30 PM College Football 389 Baylor/Texas Tech* Over 17½ -120 for 1st Quarter Risking 2.00 To Win 1.67 (Loss) 11/29/2014 3:30 PM College Football 389 Baylor* Over 28 -105 vs Texas Tech for 1st Half Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (WINNER) I am going with over in the 1st quarter here and I am also taking Baylor to score over 28 points in the 1st half. I like the over in this one too, but I really don’t know how much Texas Tech is going to score on the Bears, I do know that Baylor is looking for style points, and they always start fast, especially against a very bad defense. This game is on a neutral field at Cowboys stadium indoors, so scoring conditions will be idea. Baylor needs to impress, and rival TCU put up 82 on these red raiders. If you can’t play the first quarter and half plays take the over79 as I like that too. 11/29/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 419 Mississippi State* -3 -102 vs Mississippi Risking 1.00 To Win 0.98 (Loss) This is only a 1 unit play as it’s my least confident play of the day. But as it’s a prime time game I want to send out my pick for the game. Ole Miss has been struggling mightily since beating Alabama. They are banged up and don’t have the same offense they did a few weeks ago. Bo Wallace has been struggling to find anyone to pass to and it’s leading to turnovers. You know the crowed is going to be up for this one, but I just cant see Mississippi keeping up with MSST. 11/29/2014 4:00 PM Reduced Football 394 Kansas State* -26½ -105 vs Kansas Risking 3.00 To Win 2.86 (WINNER) When Kansas goes on the road they struggle this year. Looking at past results against high scoring teams on the road hasn’t been pretty. 41-3 vs Duke, 60-14 vs Baylor and 44-7 last week vs Oklahoma. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another ugly day today, somewhere in the neighborhood of 41-7. Play Kansas State in this one. Double Result Bet Florida to win 1st Half Florida State to Win the Game +700 Risking 1.00 to Win 7.00 (Loss) This is a prop bet. I have to take a shot here on this one, Florida State has the talent to win this game by a margin, but they always seem to struggle in the 1st half, and with the odds at +700 on this one its well worth the risk. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Nov 28, 2014 at 7:44 AM 11/28/2014 2:30 PM Reduced Football 338 UCLA* -6 -105 vs Stanford Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss) NOTE I am upping this one to a 3 unit play for VIP clients. Stanford has owned this match-up in recent years, but this year is a different Cardinal team. They don't have the same defense they have in past years, especially in the secondary where I think UCLA is going to be able to exploit them for some big plays. UCLA routed USC last weekend, a team that plays a very similar style to Stanford, and I think the Bruins are hitting their stride at the right time this year. UCLA wins by 7 or more. Additional Notes for VIP clients Stanford doesn’t have the top running back this year as Gaffney is now a New England Patriot. Their top offensive player is Ty Montgomery and he will not be playing this week. They are in a bad spot here on the road. UCLA is finally proving to be the team that we expected them to be at the beginning of the year. This has always been a tough game for them and i think they get their revenge this year. I really like UCLA to win this one by about 10-14 points. My prediction 34-17 Lets Get It Rob Email: Thu, Nov 27, 2014 at 12:40 PM 11/27/2014 4:30 PM Reduced Football 307 Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas Cowboys* Over 55½ -109 Risking 1.50 To Win 1.38 (Loss) Both of these teams have been putting up some serious points, and given that this is a prime time game, I like the chances of this one being another very high scoring game. The total has been bet up a bit, since opening at 54. I think this really comes down to how many points Philly puts up. They have been inconsistent on the road, and you never know which Sanchez is going to show up. I am willing to go with a 1.5 unit play on the game as the Overs have been such a good bet this year in prime time, and I like the Cowboys to put up about 31 points in this one. 11/27/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 310 San Francisco 49ers* -2 -105 vs Seattle Seahawks Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss) We got a big win with Seattle last week when they were playing at home, now they are on the road on a short week of rest, I just don’t like the spot they are in here. I also think San Fran is going to show up big on defense in this prime time game. If this was not a prime time game I would be all over the under, but prime time games seem to end up with higher totals as offensive coordinators pull out a few extra big plays to impress under the national spotlight, so I am staying away from the total. The ticket count is split almost dead even at 50-50 but we have seen a bit of a line move towards San Fran, which means there is some sharp action on the 49ers. Lay the 2 points, I like this one to be a close game, and Ill side with the home team. Email: Wed, Nov 26, 2014 at 2:39 PM 11/26/2014 9:05 PM Reduced Hockey 66 Colorado Avalanche* +168 vs Chicago Blackhawks Risking 1.00 To Win 1.68 (Loss) The Blackhawks are a very good team but there is no way they should be giving up this kind of money line on the road. The value here is clearly on the home dog. 11/26/2014 7:35 PM Reduced Hockey 57 Toronto Maple Leafs/Pittsburgh Penguins* Over 5½ -112 Risking 1.50 To Win 1.34 (WINNER) I really expected this line to open at 6, these are two of the top 4 highest scoring teams in the league, Pittsburgh comes into this game with 70 goals and Toronto with 67. Toronto is also allowing almost 3 goals per game. They seem to be one of those teams that either wins or gets blown out, I can see them getting blown out tonight, but this is the third game between these two this year, and its hard for a team to go 3-0 against any other team in the NHL. I like the over best here. We will have a full lineup of football action coming out tomorrow morning for the thanksgiving day games. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Nov 25, 2014 at 11:02 AM 11/25/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Basketball 502 Washington Wizards* -4½ -105 vs Atlanta Hawks Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (Loss) Not a whole lot on today. I am going with 1 play on the Wizards. This is a solid trend play. The Wizards have been very good both at home and away, while the Hawks have continued last season’s trend of struggling on the road. They have lost 4 of 5 away games including their last road game where they got blown out by Cleveland. Atlanta is coming off a home win to Detroit, so I don’t think this game looks like anything special on their calendar. Washington has been rolling and I like them to get another win and cover tonight. Email: Mon, Nov 24, 2014 at 1:57 PM 11/24/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 278 New Orleans Saints* -2½ -110 vs Baltimore Ravens Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (Loss) 11/24/2014 8:30 PM Reduced Football 278 New Orleans Saints* -6½ +175 vs Baltimore Ravens Risking 1.00 To Win 1.75 (Loss) I am coming right back with the Saints this week. If I told you at the beginning of the season that you were getting the saints at -2.5 at home against a 6-4 team that lost to both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh on the road you would be all over it. Well that’s what we have tonight, I do think the Ravens are a good team, but they are not as good on the road as they are at home. The Saints had a crappy week last week, but I really like them to bounce back tonight. They are still one of the best teams in football at home, and I think Baltimore is just an average team on the road. Baltimore only has wins over Tampa and Cleveland (by 2 points) this year. I think the buy week may help them a bit, but I don’t think they will be able to keep up with an angry Saints team at home. I like the Saints to get a big home win by at least 1 touchdown. 11/24/2014 7:35 PM NBA Basketball 707 Phoenix Suns* +145 vs Toronto Raptors for 1st Half Risking 1.00 To Win 1.45 (Loss) This is an interesting spot for the Raptors and Phoenix is a sneaky good team. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Raptors lose this game as it is their3rd game in 4 nights and the Suns come into this game red hot, winning their last 4 games. I will however note that those games were against less competitive teams than the Raps. Phoneix is one of the highest scoring teams in the league and they score a ton of points in the 1st half on the road averaging 56.1 ppg in the 1st half in road games compared to the Raptors 54.2 per game average. I like Phoenix to get another quick start tonight and the Raports to claw their way back into this one as the game wares on. 11/24/2014 7:05 PM NBA Basketball 703 Portland Trail Blazers* -7 -110 vs Philadelphia 76ers for 1st Half Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (Loss) I am also going with a 1 unit play on Portland in Philly for the 1st half. Portland is scoring on average 59.5 on the road in the 1st half and they have an average margin of +9.5 on the road at half time against any random team. They are up against the worst team in the league tonight in the 76rs so I think you get the picture. Philly is also averaging only -5 in the 1st half so this one looks like it should be about a 10 point or more lead for the blazers at half time. Philly is averaging Lets Get It Rob |
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