Sports Picker VIP Results for 8-14-2014 (3-1 for +2.12 Units)

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Thu, Aug 14, 2014 at 8:32 AM

8/14/2014 8:05 PM MLB Baseball 917 Tampa Bay Rays* -125  vs Texas Rangers
J Odorizzi - R Listed   R Ross - L Listed
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.60  (WINNER)

8/14/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 917 Tampa Bay Rays* -1½ +125  vs Texas Rangers
J Odorizzi - R Listed   R Ross - L Listed
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.25   (WINNER)

This game was badly misprices from the beginning. That's why most sports books didn't open it until 10am this morning. The overnight line was posted at +120 for the Rays!!! Ridiculous considering they are out batting and out pitching the Rangers by over a 2 to 1 margin.  

Looking at the month of August the Rays have scored 56 runs in 12 games good for 4.67 runs per game on avg. The Rangers are at 43 on 12 games good for 3.58 and again this is inflated by the 16-0 win over the White Sox on Aug 4th, take that out and we are looking at 2.45 runs per game in the month of Aug. Just look at this series... the Rays have outscored the Rangers 19-4!!!

Looking at Tampa they are 4-1 in Odorizzi's last 5 starts, including run line covers. Odorizzi comes into the game at 8-9 with a 3.89 ERA and a WHIP 1.30 he shut the Cubs out for 6 innings in his last outing. 

Texas hands the ball to Ross who has been working out of the bullpen for the most part... if you call what he's been
doing work, his stats are an absolute dogs breakfast. I would say he is the soft underbelly of the Rangers bullpen that most teams are salivating to get to. 

It's dinnertime and the Rays should have a feast tonight.

Note this line has already moved from -125 when I sent the play out at about 10am to it to -134 on
5Dimes.   (FYI this is one of the was you can tell the models are working, if the model predicts a higher line and the public moves
towards it on a NON-major market game, we have an accurate model)

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8/14/2014 2:20 PM MLB Baseball 903 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs* Under 7.5 -120
M Fiers - R Listed   E Jackson - R Listed
Risking 1.50 To Win 1.25 (Loss)

8/14/2014 2:20 PM MLB Baseball  903 Milwaukee Brewers*    -130  vs Chicago Cubs
M Fiers - R Listed   E Jackson - R Listed
Risking 1.00   To Win 0.77 (WINNER)

This is my 2nd play of the day.  Neither one of these teams has been lighting up the score board, in fact the total for Milwaukee games has gone 7 or under in 5 straight and in 18 of 25 games since the All Star break, Chicago has gone under 7 runs or under in 6 straight and 13 of 25 since the All Star break. Looking at those stats alone we have a 62% chance of the total being 7 or less which gives us true value odds of (-163) (not factoring in starters) and we are getting this game at -120 on the under 7.5 line.

When we factor in the starters I like Milwaukee to get another quality start out of Fiers. He went 8 innings in his last start vs a very good LA Dodgers team and only allowed 1 run. The risk with the under comes from the Cubs who are starting Jackson who comes into this game with a 5.61 ERA at 6-12 on the year with a WHIP of 1.56.

So the play here becomes take the under 7.5 for 1.5 units and play on Milwaukee for 1 unit as they should win this game and may end up blowing the Cubs out. 

Lets Get It

Rob

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