Sports Picker VIP Results for 8-12-2014 (1-0 for +3 Units)

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Tue, Aug 12, 2014 at 11:32 AM

8/12/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 903 Washington Nationals* -1½ +120  vs New York Mets
D Fister - R Listed   R Montero - R Listed
Risking 2.50 To Win 3.00 (WINNER)

This one should be a fairly straight forward game for Washington. They are starting one of their Aces in Doug Fister who comes into this game at 11-3 on the year ERA at 2.49 and WHIP at 1.07. He is fresh off a 7-1 win over the Mets last outing where he pitched 7.1 innings of 1 run ball. The Nationals have won 5 of his last 6 starts, and they have won 4 of them by 2 or more runs. The one loss was a 1-2 loss to Philly. Fister's ERA is down at 1.97 over his last 6 games.

The Mets are starting Montero who they recalled in place of Degrom. So far Montero hasn't looked good in his 4 starts earlier this season. He has a 5.40 ERA. Reading the reviews I expect the problem with Montero will be pitch control and walks which usually leads to losses.

To make things more one sided the Nationals have 98 runs over 23 games since the All Star break good for 4.26 per game, compare that to the Mets at 77 over 24 games they are averaging only 3.20 per game. With a full run extra per game and a much better pitcher I expect this will be a decisive win for the Nationals.

My math suggests this line should be closer to -105 or -115 on the Run line here, which means we are getting 25-35% on our money. 

8/12/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 923 Arizona Diamondbacks* +172  vs Cleveland Indians
J Collmenter - R Listed   T House - L Listed
Risking 1.50 To Win 2.58 (Postponed)

This is a great underdog value play, Arizona is starting Collmenter who seems to be one of their best team pitchers. Meaning
they win when he starts, they have won 7 of his last 10 starts which is fantastic for a team that seems to lose as many games as Arizona. They are 13-7 behind him for the season as a starter for a ML win of +729.

When we look at Arizona's performance since the All Star break they are 11-11 but have played very well, their batting average
is at .261 good for 7th overall in the MLB and they have scored 100 runs in 22 games good for 4.54 runs per game which is better than Cleveland at 4.37.

Arizona also bats slightly better against lefties, which should work for tonight's game vs Cleveland, starting TJ House
ERA 4.13 and 1-3 on the season in games he received a decision in and Cleveland is 6-5 on the year overall in games he started in.

Bottom line with this play is that in my opinion it's basically a coin flip, I would even say a 5-4 edge for Arizona, but when we
look at the odds we are getting +172 this becomes an amazing value play for Arizona. 

Lets Get It

Rob

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