NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends
Trend bettors are likely to be laying the points this Sunday, as favorites have been a decent bet in the NFL’s conference championship games over the years, standing at 35-23 against the spread since the 1985 season. Road favorites have helped pad those stats quite a bit, as they are 7-1 ATS, although that won’t come into play this Sunday.
In the AFC, home teams are 18-11 straight-up and 14-15 ATS and totals have gone 15-14. Home favorites are 14-12 ATS and 18-8 straight-up over the years, while all favorites have posted a 21-8 straight-up record and are 17-12 ATS.
It’s been nearly the same story in the NFC, as all favorites are 21-8 straight-up and 18-11 against the number. Home favorites are 17-7 straight up and 14-10 against the spread. NFC totals have been 15-12-2 over the years.
NFL Rematch Betting Trends
Interestingly, both games are rematches of earlier season games in which the favorites completely dominated. The Seahawks defeated Green Bay 36-16 as 4.5-point favorites on opening day, while the Patriots thumped the Colts 42-20 in Indianapolis as 3-point underdogs. There have been six times when two teams met in opening week and then again in the conference championship game and the winner of the first encounter has won all six conference championship games. But if you remove the week one guideline and just look at games played at the same site as the conference championship game, you’d see that the winner of the first game was just 9-10 straight-up and 8-11 ATS in the conference championship game.
Speaking of rematches, the Indianapolis Colts have thrived in second meetings under Chuck Pagano and are a perfect 12-0 straight-up. While nine of those wins have come against the AFC South, which isn’t saying a whole lot, their other three wins have come in the playoffs, defeating Kansas City last year and Cincinnati and Denver this season.
NFL Conference Championship Public Betting
The public betting has pretty much been split in the Seattle game, but the Seahawks have climbed to -7.5 points at the majority of sportsbooks, while the Patriots are receiving a few more wagers than the Colts, although that didn’t stop the line from dropping a half-point to 6.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. Both totals have essentially remained unchanged.
NFL Conference Championship Weather Forecast
The early weather forecast in Seattle is for temperatures around 50 degrees and naturally, a chance of showers, while things are expected to warm up greatly in Boston where the temperatures will be in the mid-40s with a chance of rain.
College Football Futures
The two teams involved in the college football championship game have had vastly different outcomes with their quarterback situations and that’s been reflected in the early odds to win next year’s championship. Ohio State’s Cardale Jones has decided to stay in college another year, which seems a bit odd for a guy who until last month was best-known for his Tweet of “Why should we have to go class if we came here to play FOOTBALL, we ain’t come to play SCHOOL, classes are POINTLESS.” With Jones back, along with J.T. Barrett and Braxton Miller, at least until somebody decides to transfer, and a host of other returning players, the Buckeyes are the early 5-to-1 favorites at Bovada/Bodog.
As expected, Marcus Mariota has decided to go the NFL route, leaving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the dilemma of drafting him or Jameis Winston with the No. 1 pick, and as a result, the Ducks are 16-to-1 to win next year’s title, which puts them behind TCU, Baylor and Alabama, and tied with Oklahoma and USC.
Sports Picker FREE Pick for Week 20
1/18/2015 3:05 PM NFL Football 302 Seattle Seahawks* -7 -120 vs Green Bay Packers
I am taking Seattle at -7 to get it done vs Green Bay. The Packers didn't really deserve to win that game last week, and if they think they were in tough against Dallas, just wait for Seattle on the road. The Packers aren't the same team away from Lambeau, and I think this will be a fairly easy win for the Seahawks.
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Author: Rob Holiday
My background is in business, consulting, finance and entrepreneurship