8. Rob Holiday - @robsportspicker
7. Chris Andrews - @andrewssports
6. Todd Fuhrman - @ToddFuhrman
5. Gill Alexander - @beatingthebook
4. Chad Millman - @chadmillman
2. Betting Talk - @bettingtalk_
1. William Hill Betting - @WillHillBet
11. Peter King - @SI_PeterKing
10. Pierre LeBrun - @Real_ESPNLeBrun
9. Jay Glazer - @JayGlazer
8. Pat Forde - @YahooForde
7. Matthew Berry - @MatthewBerryTMR
6. Darren Rovell - @darrenrovell
5. David Purdum - @DavidPurdum
4. Bill Simmons - @BillSimmons
3. Michael Wilbon - @RealMikeWilbon
2. Adam Schefter - @AdamSchefter
1. Scott Van Pelt - @notthefakeSVP
Profit from NFL Public Betting Percentages
This article explains what the Public Betting Percentages are actually telling you, and also how you can use this information when making your picks in the NFL.
Many sportsbooks will provide what are known as public betting percentages either to their customers or to companies that track odds and report on what bettors are doing. There really is no harm in doing so and public betting percentages are simply the amount of bets that are placed at a sportsbook, not the amount of money that is bet on either side. From a public betting percentage standpoint, sportsbooks do not differentiate between a casual bettor placing a $22 wager on the Chicago Bears or a professional bettor placing an $11,000 wager on the New York Jets. Each team is credited with having received one bet.
What the sportsbooks will not do is provide the betting percentages in relation to money wagered on a game.
Using the example above, the Jets would be receiving 500 times the amount of money bet than the Bears. While the sportsbooks won’t release the information, many times you can get an idea of which way the money is coming in on a game by watching the line movement.
You won’t be able to make a precise guess, but if the public betting percentages were showing 50% of the wagers on the Bears and 50% of the wagers on the Jets and the line moved from New York -1 to New York -2.5 you could reasonably conclude that more money is coming in on the Jets, even though the number of bets are the same.
People will use public betting percentages in several different ways. Some bettors like to be on the same teams as their fellow gamblers and look for those games in which there appears to be a consensus on one team. Whether it’s a belief in the old adage of two heads being better than one and since everybody agrees they must be right, or just a feeling of camaraderie by needing the same side as everybody else, these bettors find a degree of comfort in the safety in numbers train of thought.
How to Profit from NFL Public Betting Percentages
The more popular method of using NFL public betting percentages, however, is going against the betting public, a theory which on the surface seems to make good sense.
The majority of sports bettors are going to lose over time, so when the majority of bettors are on one team, why not go against them?
It’s hard to fault that logic, but unfortunately it’s not quite that easy. A bettor who hits 50% of their plays is going to be a losing bettor, but if you happen to bet against them, you’ll also be a 50% bettor and will end up on the losing side of things. In order to show a profit by betting against somebody, you need their winning percentage to lower than 47.62%, as the break-even figure in sports betting when laying 11-to-10 odds is 52.38%.
But there are several instances in which a bettor can profit from public betting percentages and going against the public when they are overwhelmingly on one side.
NFL Public Betting Percentages on Road Teams Receiving 25% or less of public money
Another NFL Public Betting Strategy is taking road teams receiving 25% or less of the public wagers have shown a 58-39 record since the start of the 2005 season and you can boost your winning percentage a couple of points if you focus on teams which missed the playoffs the year before.
NFL Road Dogs with under 20% of Public Betting Percentage
Closely related is taking NFL road underdogs who are receiving 20% or fewer of the wagers on a game, as these teams have covered the spread close to 57% over the past 10 seasons.
You’ll notice that both methods that were mentioned have you jumping in when at least three out of four bets are coming in on one team and then going the other way. As a result, you’re frequently going to be on some ugly teams and are you going to suffer your share of blowout losses, but remember that you don’t get style points in sports betting and losing 38-7 with a seven-point underdog is no worse than losing 21-13. Likewise, a number of the games that you win will be nail-biters, but once again, having your seven-point underdog lose 20-14 is no different than watching them win 28-17. The second scenario might be a little bit easier on your stomach, but your bet pays the same amount. In sports betting you either win or you don’t and if you happen to go against the huge public favorites, you’ll find yourself winning more often than not.
NFL Public Betting Percentage Reverse Line Moves
Another situation that can lead to a profitable betting strategy using NFL pubic betting percentages is to focus on teams that have a low percent of the public money, but have the line move in their favor. This usually happens when there are a few large bets from so called "Wise guys" or Vegas professionals. Notice in the graph below the line moves from -4 down to -3 with only 25% of the public money on Pittsburgh. This is known as a Reverse Line Move.
Hopefully this article was helpful.
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There are a number of intriguing contests on the schedule heading into the 2014 NFL season. In week 1, there are a few games that will probably get more attention than others. Here is a short preview of the games of the week, along with fantasy football tips and a look at NFL lines and the over/under.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos
Peyton Manning has not been the quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts for a while now, but it is still a noteworthy matchup when he faces them. Not only will that factor play into storylines, but the fact that both of these teams are more than likely playoff bound also adds to the intrigue.
Defenses on both sides are decent, so fantasy football numbers won't be crazy for the 2 starting quarterbacks. That also means that points will be a little bit at a premium, which means to go under the over/under. Indianapolis won last year, and they will keep it close enough to cover the spread at the very least in 2014 (as long as the spread is around a touchdown in favor of Denver).
Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks
A Super Bowl hangover could be very real here, especially since Aaron Rodgers is a very hungry quarterback at this point in time. He had to miss a good portion of last due to a collarbone injury year, but he should be 100% for the opener. Seattle will be favored at home, but Green Bay is the play here in a low-scoring affair.
Rodgers will be able to put up strong fantasy football numbers. As for Seattle, the defense will be decent, but the offense will struggle early on against a much improved Green Bay defense. That will ultimately be the difference in the game.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This is an extremely interesting match up simply because Cleveland will be starting a new quarterback with a lot of pressure on him. Brian Hoyer was able to win the starting job going up against rookie Johnny Manziel, but all eyes will be on him in the opener. This could really help to define the season for the Cleveland Browns in general, as Pittsburgh is going to be a solid team to go up against. Pittsburgh's experience, even if they are not as strong as they have been in the past, will allow them to dominate this game in the early stages. Taking over as far as points are concerned, but take Pittsburgh to win and cover.
Guest Post by: Jason Thompson
Top 10 Underrated NFL Fantasy Football Picks To Watch For In Your 2014-15 Draft or League
Top 3 Underrated 2014-15 NFL Fantasy Football Quarterbacks:
1 Matthew Stafford, Quarterback, Detroit Lions
With Calvin Johnson at your play calling finger tips and Reggie Bush by your side it is often easy to get overlooked in fantasy football and Matthew Stafford, quarterback, of the Detroit Lions often does. Having unlimited offensive weapons with superstar moves is not a bad thing for a starting quarterback in the NFL however and it is what makes Stafford such a dangerous threat on the stats sheets this fantasy football season. While New head coach Jim Caldwell's offense may not be as pass prone as the high powered schemes deployed for Stafford by ex-coach Jim Schwartz, the addition of Golden Tate, whose 31 yards per vertical reception ranked second among WRs last year could more then make up for a small loss in volume. Look for Stafford to start filling the expectations of his huge new contract and throw for as much or more then last years 4,650 yard total.
2 Nick Foles, Quarterback, Philadelphia Eagles
Sure DeSean Jackson may now be gone to the Washington Redskins but that should not deter quarterback of the Philadelphia Eagles Nick Foles, running back LeSean McCoy and coach Chip Kelly's high paced offense from putting up big numbers. Despite mostly being in the shadow of Michael Vick last year, a pulled hammy by Vick on Oct. 6, opened the gateway for Foles to start. In surprising form Foles would go on to lead the NFL in fantasy points from Weeks 9 to 17. With the return of Jeremy Maclin this year this is one starter who may not be on many minds but does have the tools to get the job done. After showcasing a 64% pass completion percentage last year it is clear the potential is there to put up another surprise batch of numbers if given the playing time.
3 Matt Ryan, Quarterback, Atlanta Falcons
After getting sacked and NFC worst 44 times last year it is easy to see why Matt Ryan, Quarterback of the Atlanta Falcons is not on a lot of fantasy football hot lists. On top of having an offensive line filled with holes the once prominent Falcons quarterback also lost his star passing target in Julio Jones for most of last year due to injury. Despite the tough times, a healthy Roddy White and Julio Jones in the 2013-14 season combined with new edition Devin Hester may just be what Ryan needs to turn his fantasy value around. Ryan was ranked seventh with 12.3 vertical yards per attempt and 14th in overall fantasy points among quarterbacks last year even with all the issues so a huge turn around is always just a few fixes away. Only missing two games in his past six NFL seasons you can be sure the consistency and durability will be there to set the foundation for the collection of fantasy points.
Top 3 Underrated 2014-15 NFL Fantasy Football Running Backs:
1 Doug Martin, Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As Charles Sims and Mike James deal with injuries it might be prime time for Doug Martin, the running back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to get back to his old mesmerizing ways. Even though Martin had an amazing 2012 season, that saw the rookie tied for second in fantasy points among running backs, he could not keep the momentum going last year. Working for most of the year through a shoulder labrum tear in Week 7 the expected numbers just never came to fruition for the versatile and talented combo back. It is also well known that Lovie Smith leans strongly towards the ground game and a more conservative offense which could allow Martin to get back to his offensive ways of old. A back with both size and speed makes the run and the catch always in the realm of possibility for this feisty runner creating a great underrated fantasy football threat.
2 Montee Ball, Running Back, Denver Broncos
When Peyton Manning is on your team it is hard to get any shine and this is no different for Montee Ball, running back, of the Denver Broncos. Also playing behind the limelight of guys like Knowshon Moreno, Wes Welker, Julius Thomas and Demaryius Thomas never makes it easy for a Rookie to get there proper share of the credit. Now with star running back Knowshon Moreno gone and Ball's blocking skills improving the future is looking brighter and brighter for the multi talented young running back. Not registering on many fantasy football radars this off season due to an appendectomy keeping him out it is still unknown how many will buy into his new more focused starting role. Carrying for an explosive offensive known for lots of passes to all positions, goal-line carries and fast moving touches does have its perks so who knows what will be in store for this all around football threat.
3 Toby Gerhart, Running Back, Jacksonville Jaguars
Writing in names like Jordan Todman, Denard Robinson and rookie Storm Johnson on the backfield backups roster list makes unhealrded Toby Gerhart, running back, of the Jacksonville Jaguars look enticing. An accomplished pass blocker and a bruising yet agile 230+ pound running force Gerhart should see a fair amount of the workload this year for the Jaguars. With Chad Henne at the helm the Jaguars may look to the run game more to account for the lack of offense and one that struggles to find the red zone. Due to the lack of experience at running back for the Jaguars this year some are estimating Gerhart's carries might reach as high as 20+ per game making him a tantalizingly option due to his pricing value and lack of popularity. If rookie Blake Bortles has to take over in the pocket this might shift the focus even more to the running back position adding greater value to this potentially overlooked play.
Top 3 Underrated 2014-15 NFL Fantasy Football Wide Receivers:
1 Jeremy Maclin, Wide Receiver, Philadelphia Eagles
Tearing an ACL last season Jeremy Maclin, wide receiver of the Philadelphia Eagles is a name often forgotten by those looking over last years continued prospects. If Maclin stays healthy this year he is sure to be a number one target in the Chip Kelly run, Nick Foles lead express super speed offense. Now that DeSean Jackson has taken off to the Washington Redskins, the field is now open for guys like Riley Cooper and Maclin to take over the majority of the catches and offense. When Maclin is healthy he is known to put up impressive offensive stats as evidenced by his 22 vertical receptions for 540 yards and 5 TDs, in 2012 which out ranked even Desean Jackson's totals of 19 for 449 and 2 touchdowns over the same period. The Eagles 70 stretch vertical attempts in 2013 was tied for fifth most in the league so look for this often underrated offense to come alive again for the 2014-15 fantasy football season.
2 Michael Floyd, Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals
Never getting the same credit as counter part Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, wide receiver of the Arizona Cardinals is the often underrated and supposed second option. With numbers such as 14.6 yards per catch the last two seasons which is better than that of big names like A.J. Green, Dez Bryant and even his own more recognized teammate Larry Fitzgerald there is no reason Floyd will remain a secret for long. Last year Floyd led Arizona in vertical targets at 64, and vertical receiving yards at 762 proving he is equal if not better then the more heralded Fitzgerald. Not just a serious stat producer on his own team last year Floyd's 34 vertical receptions was tied for eighth most among all NFL wide receivers. As surprising as it sounds this may be the year Floyd stops playing second and starts to shine like he is more then capable of.
3 Cordarrelle Patterson, Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings
Okay maybe Cordarrelle Patterson, Wide Receiver, of the Minnesota Vikings 1.53 vertical targets per game ranked 92nd in the NFL but that was last year. If his recent three catches for 71 yards and a touchdown on five targets performance in his preseason game against the Chiefs. (Saturday Aug 23, 2014) is any indication of what is to come for the 2014-15 fantasy football season then this is one slumper and sleeper that may wind up a super star if Matt Cassel can get him the ball more frequently. Also a phenomenal kick return man and special teams player, Patterson just may be racking up fantasy football points in more then one area on the field. If this speedy wide receiver gets the touches his talents deserve there is no telling what he will be capable of. Lets hope this is his year to turn into the Vikings number one pass threat.
2014-15 NFL Fantasy Football Super Sleeper
Sammy Watkins, Wide Receiver, Buffalo Bills
Costing the Buffalo Bills a 2014 first-round picks plus a first- and fourth-round selection in 2015 Sammy Watkins, Wide Receiver of Buffalo Bills high priced gamble might very well pay off. Even though this is his first year in the league and his pro skill skills are yet to be seen or tested his collegiate numbers are almost too good to overlook. Averaging 28.3 yards per vertical pass attempt against BCS-conference competition and racking up an amazing 25 yards per passing attempt when facing a single cornerback or safety in coverage there is no estimating what his debut year will bring. Boasting a 6-1, 210+ pound frame and a 4.43, 40 yard dash speed time there is no limit to Watkins upside if he gets the looks.
Review of the Top Places to Watch NFL in Vegas
Whether you’re a tourist visiting for the weekend or a Las Vegas resident, watching football in Sin City is serious business. You don’t have settle for any old place that just happens to show the games, but have plenty of choices from establishments who cater to the football crowd.
The first thing to know is that all 32 NFL teams will have at least one team bar in the city and most teams have multiple establishments that cater to fans of a particular team.
If watching the game with like-minded fans is important to you, one of the team bars may be your best bet and you can find a list of which bars support which particular teams with a quick online search. These types of places often offer food and drink specials when the house team scores and have team-related giveaways throughout the game.
Top Las Vegas NFL Viewing Location #1 Ultimate Fan Cave at LVH
If you’re looking for the total viewing experience, it’s hard to top the Ultimate Fan Cave at the LVH Casino at Westgate Las Vegas Resort, where you can watch up to 16 games at once on three 120-inch HD screens and a number of smaller television monitors.
The Cave is located in the former poker room of the LVH and is non-smoking. Seats can fill up fast during football season, so you’ll want to get there early if possible.
Top Las Vegas NFL Sports Bar #2 Lagasse's Stadium at The Pallazo
If good quality and new technology is important, you’ll definitely want to head to Lagasse's Stadium at The Palazzo, where you can watch games on numerous couches set up in tiered fashion on more than 100 television screens, including one that is a 9-foot-by-16-foot projection screen. The name comes from famous chef Emeril Lagasse, who owns four restaurants in Las Vegas, including this one.
Top Las Vegas NFL Sports Bar #3 ARIA Sportsbook
The ARIA race and sportsbook is another excellent choice and it’s also a non-smoking location. More than 90 HD televisions fill the place, including a pair of 220-inch screens and you’ll watch the games in comfort from either couches or lounge seats the ARIA sportsbook can show up to 200 live events at a single time.
Top Las Vegas NFL Sports Bar #4 PT's Pubs
Among locals, PT’s Pubs are a frequent weekend destination to watch the games. With more than 40 locations in Las Vegas, you’re never far from one.
A cool added bonus is that all of them are William Hill Sportsbook mobile betting hotspots, so you can be up and placing bets in several minutes.
PT’s offers plenty of game day specials and is an excellent choice for those who believe that football is best watched with a beer and hamburger. You won’t find fancy dining at Pt’s, but you will find good food and drinks at reasonable prices.
Do you have a favorite Spot to watch the games in Las Vegas? Help us add to the list with your comments below!
The Top 25 Highest Earning Players in the NFL for 2014
List of the Top 25 Highest Paid NFL Players for 2014
#1 Aaron Rodgers QB,
#2 Kolin Kaeprnick QB,
#3 Matt Ryan QB,
#4 Joe Flacco QB,
#5 Drew Brees QB,
#6 Peyton Manning QB,
#7 Jay Cutler QB,
#8 Tony Romo QB,
#9 Matthew Stafford QB,
#10 Eli Manning QB,
#11 Calvin Johnson WR,
#12 Larry Fitzgerald WR,
#13 Mario Williams DE,
#14 Tom Brady QB,
#15 Richard Sherman CB,
#16 Adrian Peterson RB,
#17 Phillip Rivers QB,
#18 Joe Haden CB,
#19 Clay Matthews OLB,
#20 Greg Hardy DE,
#21 Sam Bradford QB,
#22 Ndamukong Suh DT,
#23 Charles Johnson DE,
#24 Ben Roethlisberger QB,
#25 Trent Cole OLB,
Author: Rob Holiday
My background is in business, consulting, finance and entrepreneurship
I started Sports-Picker.com to share my love of sports and to share my picks and strategy with others.
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