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Superbowl Prop Betting Guide

Sun, 01 Feb 2015 15:04:44 GMT

Today's post features my first Superbowl Prop Betting Guide, enjoy!

Ever since Chicago’s William “the Refrigerator” Perry scored a touchdown against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 20, Superbowl Prop Betting has become synonymous with the big game. This year is no different, as some sportsbooks are offering more than 500 proposition wagers on the Super Bowl.

Some proposition bets, such as the number of yards Marshawn Lynch rushes for, can be determined by how a handicapper analyzes the game and what they see transpiring on the field, but there are plenty of proposition bets where the determining factor is strictly luck of the draw. Proposition betting has become big business for the sportsbooks and most now say that the props account for 30 to 50% of their total handle. When you consider that there will be an estimated $10 billion wagered on the game worldwide, although roughly one-quarter of that is through various office pools, square pools in taverns, etc., that still means several billion will be wagered on whether or not Lynch grabs his crotch after a touchdown, the color of hair dye Katy Perry uses or if the coin flip results in heads or tails.

The most famous proposition bet is simply the coin toss, which has been around for years and at one time was considered the biggest novelty wager around, although that has long-been eclipsed by some of the more off-beat offerings that have come along in recent years. Not only can you bet whether the coin is heads or tails, you can wager which team wins the coin toss, if the team that calls the toss will be correct or if the team that wins the coin toss will win the game.

The National Anthem is another well-known prop bet and this year you can wager if it takes Idina Menzel over or under 2 minutes, 1 second to sing the anthem at -120 either way or if she’ll forget or omit at least one word. The “no” is -700, so somebody believes that she’ll get everything right.

The Super Bowl halftime show has evolved over the years and at one time consisted of the usual performances of marching bands. Television networks which lost out on the Super Bowl broadcast decided to put on popular entertainment acts during halftime as a way to entice people to switch away from the game. The Super Bowl decided to fight back and in 1991 had New Kids on the Block perform at halftime and have had name performers ever since.

After the infamous “wardrobe malfunction” of Janet Jackson and Justin Timberlake in 2004, the Super Bowl went with older performers for a while, having the likes of Paul McCartney, Bruce Springsteen. Tom Petty and The Who. These bands who were popular enough that many sportsbooks would let you wager on which song they would open with or end with. In an effort to placate the younger audience, the Super Bowl returned to more contemporary acts the past few years, which brought an end to wagering on individual songs or the number of times Pete Townsend did the windmill.

This year, you can wager on the color of Perry’s hair, how many times she’s mentioned in the first half and whether she wears pants, shorts or a dress/skirt at the beginning of her performance.

Not to be outdone, you can also wager on the color of the hoodie New England fashion plate Bill Belichick wears and if it will be cut at the sleeves or not.

A number of wagers relate to the television audience, such as will the Nielsen rating be over or under 47.5, will the number of viewers exceed 113 million and will the Seattle region or the Boston region have a higher percentage of people watching the game.

Other wagers offered that have become somewhat commonplace include the color of the Gatorade that will be dumped on the winning coach, what the Dow Jones does the Monday after the game and who the MVP thanks first, with his teammates and God the two most popular choices.

Those who would like to extend their wagers into Monday morning can elect to bet the Super Bowl/Groundhog Day parlay, where you can wager on which team wins the Super Bowl and parlay that to whether or not Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow or not.

It’s the Super Bowl, so have a little bit of fun and good luck.

My Pick for the Big Game...

2/1/2015 6:30 PM Reduced Football 102 Seattle Seahawks* +1 -110 vs New England Patriots
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82

Taking the 1 point with Seattle. Ive been watching the line all week and there was a sharp reverse line move last night towards the Seahawks. This indicates some serious Sharp bets were flowing in on Seattle. Especially with all of the public money on the Pats. This isn't an easy game to pick, but I am going to side with the Seahawks and the better defense.

Ill post a few prop bets that I like too closer to game time so be sure to check back around 6PM for some additional Picks.

NFL Conference Championship Betting

Fri, 16 Jan 2015 21:35:02 GMT

NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends

Trend bettors are likely to be laying the points this Sunday, as favorites have been a decent bet in the NFL’s conference championship games over the years, standing at 35-23 against the spread since the 1985 season. Road favorites have helped pad those stats quite a bit, as they are 7-1 ATS, although that won’t come into play this Sunday.

In the AFC, home teams are 18-11 straight-up and 14-15 ATS and totals have gone 15-14. Home favorites are 14-12 ATS and 18-8 straight-up over the years, while all favorites have posted a 21-8 straight-up record and are 17-12 ATS.

It’s been nearly the same story in the NFC, as all favorites are 21-8 straight-up and 18-11 against the number. Home favorites are 17-7 straight up and 14-10 against the spread. NFC totals have been 15-12-2 over the years.

NFL Rematch Betting Trends

Interestingly, both games are rematches of earlier season games in which the favorites completely dominated. The Seahawks defeated Green Bay 36-16 as 4.5-point favorites on opening day, while the Patriots thumped the Colts 42-20 in Indianapolis as 3-point underdogs. There have been six times when two teams met in opening week and then again in the conference championship game and the winner of the first encounter has won all six conference championship games. But if you remove the week one guideline and just look at games played at the same site as the conference championship game, you’d see that the winner of the first game was just 9-10 straight-up and 8-11 ATS in the conference championship game.

Speaking of rematches, the Indianapolis Colts have thrived in second meetings under Chuck Pagano and are a perfect 12-0 straight-up. While nine of those wins have come against the AFC South, which isn’t saying a whole lot, their other three wins have come in the playoffs, defeating Kansas City last year and Cincinnati and Denver this season.

NFL Conference Championship Public Betting

The public betting has pretty much been split in the Seattle game, but the Seahawks have climbed to -7.5 points at the majority of sportsbooks, while the Patriots are receiving a few more wagers than the Colts, although that didn’t stop the line from dropping a half-point to 6.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. Both totals have essentially remained unchanged.

NFL Conference Championship Weather Forecast

The early weather forecast in Seattle is for temperatures around 50 degrees and naturally, a chance of showers, while things are expected to warm up greatly in Boston where the temperatures will be in the mid-40s with a chance of rain.

College Football Futures

The two teams involved in the college football championship game have had vastly different outcomes with their quarterback situations and that’s been reflected in the early odds to win next year’s championship. Ohio State’s Cardale Jones has decided to stay in college another year, which seems a bit odd for a guy who until last month was best-known for his Tweet of “Why should we have to go class if we came here to play FOOTBALL, we ain’t come to play SCHOOL, classes are POINTLESS.” With Jones back, along with J.T. Barrett and Braxton Miller, at least until somebody decides to transfer, and a host of other returning players, the Buckeyes are the early 5-to-1 favorites at Bovada/Bodog.

As expected, Marcus Mariota has decided to go the NFL route, leaving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the dilemma of drafting him or Jameis Winston with the No. 1 pick, and as a result, the Ducks are 16-to-1 to win next year’s title, which puts them behind TCU, Baylor and Alabama, and tied with Oklahoma and USC.

Sports Picker FREE Pick for Week 20

1/18/2015 3:05 PM NFL Football 302 Seattle Seahawks* -7 -120 vs Green Bay Packers

I am taking Seattle at -7 to get it done vs Green Bay. The Packers didn't really deserve to win that game last week, and if they think they were in tough against Dallas, just wait for Seattle on the road. The Packers aren't the same team away from Lambeau, and I think this will be a fairly easy win for the Seahawks.

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NFL and College Football Update for 1-10-2015

Sat, 10 Jan 2015 19:14:59 GMT

College Football Playoff Update

This weekend shapes up to be a big one in football, with the four NFL divisional playoff games and the College Football Championship Game taking place on Monday.

The college football game is an interesting one, as the Oregon Ducks are looking for their first-ever win against the Buckeyes, as Ohio State is 8-0 all-time against the Quack Attack. Both teams should be thankful that the playoff system went into effect this season, otherwise the probable title game would have featured Florida State and Alabama, the two teams who were ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the AP poll before the first round of the playoffs. From that standpoint, the playoff system has to be considered a success, even though the need to expand to eight teams has reared its head, as there are many sets of power ratings, including the frequently quoted USA Today ratings of Jeff Sagarin that have TCU ranked as the No. 1 team in college football. Unfortunately, many coaches, including Ohio State’s Urban Meyer, have spoken out against expanding the field. If the Buckeyes had finished No. 5 in the poll behind TCU, I wonder if he would be making the same arguments.

NFL Divisional Playoffs

Moving over to the NFL, there aren’t any real long-term trends that have held any water over an extended period of time, as favorites are 57-55-4 dating all the way back to 1985. Home teams and overs have shown the slightest of profits, with home teams going 61-53-4 (53.5%) and overs going 60-54 (52.6%). Short-term trends have been a little bit different, as home teams are just 14-21-1 since the 2005 season and favorites are 15-20-1. Again, totals have shown the slightest of profits, going 19-17.

The betting has pretty much been split in each of this weekend’s four games. The two largest favorites, Denver and Seattle, have the highest betting percentages, although both are just under 60%. The Ravens and Packers each have 54% of the wagers as of Friday afternoon and that can obviously change over the next 24 hours when most of the betting public will begin to get their wagers in.

The totals have remained fairly consistent since they were opened, as many bettors are likely waiting to get the latest weather reports before placing a wager. While there is expected to be cooler weather at all four locations, even Seattle where they are calling for temperatures of 44 degrees, which is freezing by Northwest standards. Temperatures in New England and Green Bay will be in the upper teens or low 20s, while temperatures should reach 40 degrees on Sunday in Denver.

While there are no long-term league-wide trends there are a few team specific trends for those who are interested in such things, beginning with Carolina’s impressive 4-0 record this year and 11-2 mark over the past three seasons when revenging a loss versus an opponent.

The Patriots and Packers have both had plenty of success against teams with winning records this season, as New England was 7-2 ATS this season and the Packers were 5-1. Seattle was 5-3,Denver was 5-4, while both Baltimore and the Colts were .500. Dallas was 3-4 and the Panthers were 2-3.

FREE PLAYOFF PICK

1/10/2015 4:35 PM Reduced Football 111
Baltimore Ravens* +7 -110 vs New England Patriots

Great FREE College Football Resource

Fri, 02 Jan 2015 18:29:47 GMT

I just found this College Football Free picks resource and I want to share it with everyone.

The site is Game Day Cole http://www.gamedaycole.com/

This guy has been keeping up with all of the college game day picks for the past 5 years. The best part is he posts all the picks with records.

Love the idea, great site to bookmark if you ever miss college game day and wanna catch up on the picks.

Rob

Handicapping Late Season NFL Games

Sat, 27 Dec 2014 19:52:33 GMT

This article covers handicapping late season NFL games.

When Handicapping Late Season NFL games sports bettors need to take into account a number of other motivation and situational factors that are not an issue during the majority of the season. To examine this further, lets look at some current situations to help us with Handicapping late season NFL games.

There are quite a few different story-lines for the final Sunday of the NFL and bettors should at least be aware of them and how they may influence the point spreads in this week’s games.

There is one wildcard playoff spot to be determined in the AFC and the San Diego Chargers have the inside track, as a victory over Kansas City will put them in the playoffs. The Chiefs aren’t mathematically eliminated and will be playing to win, but need a pair of double-digit favorites in Houston and Baltimore to both lose outright in order to qualify for the playoffs. Baltimore does get the nod over the Texans and will make it with a win over Cleveland and a Kansas City victory over San Diego, while the Texans need both the Chargers and Ravens to lose.

Working against the Texans and Chiefs is that Week No. 17 favorites have performed well over the past five seasons, going 43-35-1 (55.1%) and larger favorites have done even better, with favorites of 4.5 or more points going 29-20 (59.2%) and favorites of 7.5 points or more going 20-11 (64.5%) and a solid 10-4 the past two years.

Home teams have also fared well in Week No. 17, going 48-31-1 (60.8%) over the past five seasons. Both favorites (34-22-1, 60.7%) and underdogs (13-9, 59.1%) have been profitable and the home team covered the lone game that was listed “pick-em.”

Last week there were a number of teams which had more than 80% of the wagers in their games and these teams were pretty poor against the spread, with Green Bay the lone team to cover the number. This week, only the Indianapolis Colts are flirting with the 80% figure, as they currently have 79% of the wagers in their game at Tennessee.

Three games will see teams battling for division titles facing each other; Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Detroit at Green Bay; and Carolina at Atlanta. The NFC West division title is also up for grabs, but Seattle can wrap-up the No. 1 spot in the NFC with a win over the Rams, as long as the Green Bay game doesn’t end up in a tie, since Seattle holds the tie-breaker advantage as long as three teams are tied with 12-4 records.

Also be sure to pay attention to what the coaches have to say on Friday and Saturday, as a team like New England may well rest a few starters or play them limited minutes. The Eagles, Bills and Saints may also sit out a few players who could go if they were involved in a meaningful game.

Handicapping Late Season NFL games - Draft Picks

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are currently holding the No. 1 spot in the 2015 draft and can wrap it up with a loss to the New Orleans Saints, while the Tennessee Titans can do no worse than No. 2 provided they lose to the Colts. Tampa Bay can’t pick worse than No. 2 even if they do pull off the upset, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility, as they will be playing a Saints team that just had its bubble burst a week ago, and like Philadelphia and Buffalo, you have to wonder about their mental state heading into this week’s games after being eliminated from playoff contention a week ago.

The Eagles have even less to play for, especially if they are going to make a pitch at prying the No. 1 pick from either Tampa Bay or Tennessee to try and grab Marcus Mariota, as the rumor mill is suggesting. Another loss by Philadelphia would at least make their No. 1 pick slightly more enticing, although it will also cost them Nick Foles, along with several other high draft choices. The Eagles predicament has also caught notice from bettors, as Philadelphia opened as a 1.5-point underdog against the New York Giants and now the Giants are -3.

Handicapping Late Season NFL games - Sitting Starters

Also be sure to pay attention to what the coaches have to say on Friday and Saturday, as a team like New England may well rest a few starters or play them limited minutes. The Eagles, Bills and Saints may also sit out a few players who could go if they were involved in a meaningful game

Week 17 NFL Free Pick

12/28/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 307 Indianapolis Colts* -6 -110 vs Tennessee Titans for 1st Half
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82

Neither team has anything to play for here. I expect Luck to play for the first half, get a decent lead then take the 2nd half off to avoid the chance of injury. The Titans are playing at home, so they may come back in the 2nd half against some starters, but I would be very surprised if they actually tried to win this game and compromise the #1 draft pick.

2014 College Bowl Handicapping

Mon, 22 Dec 2014 15:21:33 GMT

College Bowl Handicapping

College bowl handicapping is a different beast, the games are completely than the regular season so a sharp handicapper needs to account for a few additional variables. .

Due to the time between a team’s last game and the bowl game, coaches can have a greater influence on the outcome. A good coach with two-and-a-half or three weeks to prepare his team for a particular opponent is a huge advantage, while a poor coach will not be able to use the extra time to help his team. When you crunch the numbers and for your college bowl handicapping you will want to consider the coaching staff, and the amount of time they have had to prepare.

College Bowl Handicapping - Public Perception

Public perception of the teams plays a bigger role in the spreads, as more people wager on the bowl games than bet in the regular season. Those of us who bet every day have a tendency to forget that there are plenty of bettors who will only bet the NFL or will just bet the NBA and not college basketball. These types of bettors will often come out of the woodwork when it’s time for the bowl games or the college basketball tournament and they do influence the spreads to a degree.

College Bowl Handicapping - Coaching Changes

Another important consideration when doing your College Bowl Handicapping is to factor in the coaching changes. A number of teams have seen their regular season coaches leave for one reason or another. Florida, Houston, Michigan and Nebraska essentially ousted their head coaches, while Wisconsin and Colorado State saw their coaches voluntarily step down to take other positions. Teams with interim head coaches leading them in bowl games are just 20-25-1 (43.4%) since 2003, so you may want to use a bit of caution on those teams, although it seems the mindset would be entirely different for teams such as Florida or Nebraska, whose players loved their coaches, as opposed to Wisconsin or Colorado State, whose coaches left on their own to head up other programs.

College Bowl Handicapping - Motivation

When looking at college sports, it’s always important to remember that you’re talking about 18 to 23 year old kids, who tend to be more emotional than their counterparts in professional sports. College players have higher highs and lower lows and that often can show up on the field. When handicapping college football bowl games, always remember, some teams are just thrilled to be playing a bowl game, while others are pretty disappointed about which game they’re playing in.

Teams like TCU or Baylor can enter their games on a mission and set out to prove the playoff committee wrong or they can just go through the motions, knowing that they’re not playing in the game they feel they deserve to be in. As Alabama showed last year when they were solidly trounced by an inferior Oklahoma team, a team that isn’t completely into the game is in trouble against a team that is looking for a statement win of their own.

College Bowl Handicapping - Strength of Conference

While college football fans can debate which conference is the strongest all they want, bettors tend to look at things a little bit differently and are more interested in how particular conferences do in bowl games. As some would expect, Southeastern Conference teams have been decent bets, going 46-34 (57.5%) dating back to 2005, while the Sun Belt surprisingly has fared above average, going 23-18 (56.1%) over the same time span.

Big Ten teams have been a slight disappointment, going 32-35 against the spread, while the Big 12 is a bigger disappointment, going a dismal 30-41 (42.2%) against the spread. The worse culprits, however, has been Mid-American Conference teams, as they have posted an atrocious 11-26 (29.7%) record over the years.

There are 38 bowl games on the schedule and all of them will be televised, but don’t feel the need to wager on each and every one. Be selective and look for those games in which you feel you have a decent edge. Your bankroll will be much happier at the end of the bowl season if you do so.

College Bowl Handicapping - Free Pick

12/22/2014 2:00 PM Reduced Football 212 Memphis* -2 -105 vs BYU
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90

12/22/2014 2:00 PM Reduced Football 211 BYU/Memphis* Under 56 -102
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.98

We have an early bowl game on today, starting at 2PM EST. I am taking the Memphis Tigers over BYU. For me this one comes down to who has the healthier team, and its clearly Memphis.

BYU has been just decimated with injuries this year, losing their starting QB Taysom Hill back in October and their starting running back Jamaal Williams in November. They managed to recover and end the season on a 4 game win streak as replacement QB Christian Stewart did a solid backup job to close out the season.

Looking at Memphis, they come into this game on a 6 game win streak. QB Paxton Lynch has been a consistent dual-threat, throwing for 18 TDs and adding another 10 rushing. To complement the offense, the D has been very solid down the stretch, they area allowing only 17.1 points per game and they only allowed 20 points to USF and Tulsa over their final 6 games of the season, the rest were stuck at 13 or less.

This game should feature some strong defense, BYU will match up well against the Memphis run, so I expect a few big plays to be the deciding factor in this one. Memphis just has more options on offense and I think it will make the difference and lead them to a 27-16 type win in this one. Play Memphis and lean on the under.

Lets Get It

Rob

Week 16 NFL Handicapping Update

Thu, 18 Dec 2014 15:04:50 GMT

There are just two weeks remaining in the regular season and teams are either fighting for a playoff berth, fighting for a better draft position, battling for home field advantage in the playoffs, or just playing out the string. Despite what the league says, you can be sure that not all teams are going to be going all out the final two weeks to get victories, but you have to look at each team on a case-by-case basis and sometimes read between the lines.

A new coach like Tampa Bay’s Lovie Smith is most likely safe for a few more years despite his team’s disappointing season. But if you’re Smith, would you rather go into next season with Josh McCown or Marcus Mariota as your quarterback?

A coach like Rex Ryan probably doesn’t care who leads the Jets at quarterback next season, as even two wins in the final two games may not be enough to save his job, but you can be relatively certain that he’ll do everything he can to win out. Whether his players do is another story, as many of them are most likely thinking where to vacation in January, not to mention the fact that Ryan isn’t exactly highly regarded by many of his players, who may not mind seeing a new coaching staff brought in.

The majority of bettors are going to wager on teams that need to win to make the playoffs or at least to improve their positioning in the playoffs, especially if they are playing a team that is out of it. It isn’t often that an NFL team will have at least 80% of the wagers in a game, but as of Wednesday morning there were five teams which had 80% or more of the wagers in their games; Philadelphia, Green Bay, New England Baltimore and Buffalo. There is definitely a common denominator among those teams.

The teams receiving 20% or less of the wagers also have a common theme, as you can see; Washington, Tampa Bay, N. Y. Jets, Houston and Oakland. Houston is 7-7, while the other four teams have combined to post the same number of victories as the Indianapolis Colts.

Detroit had 79% of the wagers in its game at Chicago as of Wednesday morning and this one could also exceed the 80% figure by kick-off and again, you have a team battling for its division title against the team which looks to be the most dysfunctional in the league at the moment.

Dating back to 2005, Week No. 16 favorites haven’t fared too well, posting a 62-74-5 (45.6%) ATS record. Surprisingly, favorites of a touchdown or more have fared a bit better, going 30-27-1 (52.6%), while smaller favorites are just 29-44-4 (39.7%). The record is even worse for small favorites on the road, as they are just 7-14-2, but now you begin to reduce the sample size to the point where it loses its predictive value.

Home favorites were 44-52-2 (45.8%) in Week 16, while totals showed little of significance, going 50-47-1 (51.5%). Home underdogs were 22-18-3 (55.0%).

2014 College Football Playoff Bracket

Tue, 16 Dec 2014 23:15:15 GMT

The votes are in and the 2014 College Football Playoff Bracket is Set.

The college football playoff committee ended all of the debate regarding TCU and Baylor in dramatic fashion on Sunday, deciding that neither of them should advance to the pool of four teams for the first-ever college football playoffs. While it’s hard to argue with the end result, the committee does look a bit foolish for dropping TCU three places in a week that they defeated Iowa State 55-3.

To their credit, the committee did say all along that there would be “bonus points” for winning a conference championship, which is exactly what Ohio State got in their thumping of Wisconsin, while TCU or Baylor either didn’t receive or were forced to split the extra credit given by the committee, as the two schools were declared co-champions. Which I expect will prompt the big 12 to consider implementing a conference championship very shortly.

Looking at the teams that made the 2014 College Football Playoff Bracket

There was never any question that Alabama and Oregon were going to make the 2014 College Football Playoff Bracket, especially after both posted comfortable wins in capturing their conference championships. After that, it became a bit of a guessing game, and even undefeated Florida State had to breathe a sigh of relief when they were announced as one of the four playoff teams.

The betting has been a bit brisk, considering the first two playoff games aren’t until New Year’s Day. No. 1 Alabama opened as 9.5-point favorites over No. 4 Ohio State and the line has climbed to 10, with several books having already moved to Alabama -10.5. The total is 58.

No. 2 Oregon opened as 8.5-point favorites over No. 3 Florida State and the spread has already climbed to 9.5 at most places, along with a couple of 10s. The total is 71. The Seminoles had not been underdogs since 2011.

Not only did TCU fall out of the top four following their 52-point victory, the Horned Frogs dropped all the way to sixth place, as Baylor moved in front of them after the Bears defeated Kansas State. As a result of seeing both TCU and Baylor not in the playoffs, the Big 12 figures to lose close to $6 million.

The Horned Frogs will face Mississippi in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on New Year’s Eve. TCU is favored by 3 or 3.5, depending on the sportsbook, but you have to question how the Horned Frogs will enter this game. As we saw last year with Alabama, teams don’t always show up when they’re playing in a game that they aren’t happy with being at, so again I have to question the motivation level here, especially considering they will be up against a Mississippi team that has a chip on their shoulder as they demonstrated in their game vs Mississippi State.

Baylor fared a bit better, as the Bears play Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Day and figure to have a decent crowd on hand. The Bears are favored by three and playing in their home state might add a little bit of motivation for the team, this one should be a high scoring affair, so I will be taking a close look at the over.

As expected, Boise State received the at-large bowl bid and play Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl. Arizona is favored by three at most sportsbooks and the total on the game is hovering around 69.

The SEC might have only ended up with one team in the playoffs, but the conference will be collecting quite a few paychecks as 12 teams received bowl invitations

I will be posting some free picks to the blog over the next few weeks. To make sure you don't miss out on any of them, I highly recommend that you subscribe to my email list. You can do so by entering your name and email below.

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College Football Playoff Update Week 15 and Free Pick

Thu, 04 Dec 2014 22:31:48 GMT

College Football Playoff Bracket Update for Week 14

The college football playoff committee made one big change in the latest set of rankings that were released Tuesday evening and that was to move TCU ahead of undefeated Florida State to No. 3, while dropping the Seminoles to No. 4.

There are several possible reasons for the change, including that all four teams would play their first-round games closer to home if the current rankings hold up, although that likely has little to do with the move. The most likely reason for the change is to try and quiet the debate when the final rankings are released Sunday evening. TCU hosts Iowa State on Saturday and the Horned Frogs are favored by 34 points so a loss is unlikely, but expect to see No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Baylor making plenty of noise should they win on Saturday.

Should Florida State manage to defeat Georgia Tech on Saturday, the committee can simply tell Ohio State or Baylor that the Seminoles are undefeated. Should Florida State lose, things will get really interesting, especially when you factor in the quarterback situation for the Buckeyes and the Bears, who both saw their quarterbacks go down last Saturday due to injury. Ohio State’s J. T. Barrett is lost for the season, but the Buckeyes have a very talented backup in the 6-foot-5, 255-pound Cardale Jones, while Petty expects to play against Kansas State despite suffering a concussion in the team’s win over Texas Tech.

Westgate SuperBook, better known as the LVH, has said that Alabama would be favored by 11 over Florida State and Oregon would be a 2.5-point favorite over TCU.

No. 2 Oregon kicks off the week with a game against No. 7 Arizona and the Wildcats have won the last two meetings between the two, including a 31-24 decision at Autzen Stadium earlier this year as 20-point underdogs. Should lightning strike a third time, Arizona could find itself in the mix depending on what the other teams in the top six do, although the Ducks are 14.5-point favorites at Levi’s Stadium, where the 49ers play their home games.

No. 1 Alabama plays Missouri in the SEC title game on Saturday and are also favored by 14.5 points.

Florida State plays the Yellow Jackets for the ACC title and plenty of people are on the Georgia Tech bandwagon after they ran for nearly 400 yards in their victory over Georgia last week. The Seminoles are favored by four points and the team’s second-leading rusher, Karlos Williams, is questionable for the game.

No. 5 Ohio State has a tough game against Wisconsin and the Badgers are 4.5 point favorites due to the Buckeye’s quarterback injury. But Ohio State has dominated Wisconsin over the years, as the Buckeyes have been favored in 44 of the last 46 games. The two times the Badgers were favored Ohio State won the game straight-up.

Baylor’s close call last week didn’t help them any, although a victory over a pretty good (and ranked) Kansas State team would, probably just not enough, barring an upset or two above them. The Bears are favored by 7.5 points.

No. 22 Boise State looks to have a firm grasp on the New Year’s Day bowl game after Marshall was defeated by Western Kentucky last week. The playoff committee elects one team from outside the five major conferences (Pac-12, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big 10) to play in one of the four New Year’s Day games, and if Boise State defeats Fresno State for the Mountain West championship that should be theirs. Boise State is favored by 21 points and is the only team from outside the Big Five to be ranked.

College Football Free Pick

12/6/2014 8:15 PM Reduced Football 128 Ohio State* +4½ -107 vs Wisconsin
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.93

12/6/2014 8:15 PM Reduced Football 128 Ohio State* +175 vs Wisconsin
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.75

I really like Ohio State to get it done this week. I think they step up and get a big win even with the back up QB who, i think a lot of people be caught off guard by. This line went from -3.5 to +4.5, I love Ohio State as an underdog, I think they even get the win.

Lets Get It

Rob

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College Football Playoff Update Week 14 and Free Pick

Thu, 27 Nov 2014 14:13:24 GMT

There were no changes in the top seven of the college football playoff rankings, which were released on Tuesday, although there is growing concern over some of the things the committee was saying will happen in the future. The biggest complaint many people had was the still unknown “conference championship bonus” which has been referred to, but never really spelled out.

If teams are indeed awarded bonus points for winning their conference title, No. 4 Mississippi State could very well be on its way out of the playoff regardless of what happens in Saturday’s Egg Bowl against Mississippi. The picture if further clouded by the possibility of TCU and Baylor finishing tied for the Big 12 championship, since the conference has no championship game, as well as Ohio State winning the Big 10 championship game.

Naturally, what takes place on the field over the next three days can change quite a bit of planning and you have to believe the committee wouldn’t be too terribly upset if the Texas Longhorns can pull off the upset of TCU on Thanksgiving or ‘Ole Miss can rise to the occasion and knock off the Bulldogs.

A number of teams in the top seven are expected to have games this week, beginning with top-ranked Alabama, which is favored by 8.5 points over No. 15 Auburn on Saturday.

The No. 2 Oregon Ducks are healthy 19.5-point favorites over Oregon State and No. 3 Florida State is now down to being a 7.5-point favorite over the disappointing Florida Gators, after opening as 10-point favorites.

There is some debate about whether or not Florida State should be ranked below two teams with one loss, although the Seminoles haven’t been all that impressive during the year. Or as CBS Sports analyst Gary Danielson said, “One more win and they could be out of it.”

Mississippi State may be in for a battle according to the oddsmakers who opened the Bulldogs as 1-point favorites over the Rebels, although the betting public has pushed the number up to 2.5 and a few sportsbooks have it at 3.

No. 5 TCU is favored by a touchdown over the longhorns today and No. 6 Ohio State is favored by 20.5 to 21 over Michigan and Baylor is favored by 25 over Texas Tech. Both the lines on Ohio State and Baylor have climbed slightly from the opening numbers even though both failed to cover last week as extremely popular plays.

No. 8 UCLA can’t quite bit counted out completely, as a PAC-12 conference championship win over Oregon could very well be enough to boost them into the top four, especially if one or two of the teams ranked about them right now stumbles.

While the majority of the debate has been centered at the top of the polls, another one is brewing towards the very bottom of the top 25, as No. 23 Boise State and No. 24 Marshall are in a battle for the playoff committee’s automatic bid to one of the New Year’s bowl games. The committee selects the highest rated team from the American Athletic, Conference USA, the Mid-American, the Mountain West and the Sun Belt.

While Boise State has lost two games, the Broncos have played a tougher schedule than the Thundering Herd, but Marshall does have the advantage of being undefeated and is ranked higher in USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, which the committee looks at.

Boise State does play a tough Utah State team on Saturday and that game could have a big impact on which team plays on Jan. 1. The Aggies aren’t ranked, but a win over Boise State would likely vault them into the discussion for that spot, as well.

Week 14 NCAA Football Free Pick

11/28/2014 2:30 PM Reduced Football 338 UCLA* -6 -105 vs Stanford
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90

Stanford has owned this match-up in recent years, but this year is a different Cardinal team. They don't have the same defense they have in past years, especially in the secondary where I think UCLA is going to be able to exploit them for some big plays. UCLA routed USC last weekend, a team that plays a very similar style to Stanford, and I think the Bruins are hitting their stride at the right time this year. UCLA wins by 7 or more.

Lets Get It

Rob