College Football Playoff Predictions Update
Each week now through the end of the season I am going to be posting a college football playoff picture update every Thursday afternoon - along with a free pick. Be sure to bookmark the site and check back every week.
The first college football playoff games are still a little more than six weeks away and many people are already finding fault with the system. Look no farther than this week’s games where No. 1-ranked Mississippi State is an 8.5-point underdog to No. 5 Alabama and No. 3 Florida State is just a 2.5-point favorite over un-ranked Miami, Fla.
The College Football Playoff Committee
The College Football Playoff Committee has an unenviable task, as there is no way to please everybody, particularly fans of one-loss teams who are on the outside looking in right now.
The 13-member committee has a strong football pedigree, although several members, such as Lt. General Mike Gould, who is former Superintendent of U.S. Air Force Academy, and Condoleezza Rice, former United States Secretary of State, have absolutely nothing in their background that would appear to make them qualified for voting on the top football teams in the country.
The rest of the committee is made up by a number of familiar names, such as former quarterbacks Pat Haden, Oliver Luck and Archie Manning; former coaches Tom Osborne, Barry Alvarez and Tyrone Willingham, and several others who have been involved in college athletics in one form or another.
The College Football Playoff Committee's Job
The committee states their job is to “select the best teams, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff and selected other bowl games and, then assign the teams to sites.” When the committee votes on its top 25 teams, the first step is vote on which teams are included in a pool of teams and then rank those teams. According to the committee, factors that they look at are win-loss record, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents and conference championships.
The College Football Payoff Format 2014 through 2016
The playoff format will see two bowl games used as the semifinals each year, beginning with the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl this year, with both games played on the traditional New Year’s Day and the final game played in Arlington, Texas, on Jan. 12. Next year, the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl will be used for the semifinals and the championship game will be Jan. 11, 2016 in Glendale, Ariz. In 2016, it will be the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl used for the semifinals and the championship game will be played in Tampa.
Current College Football Rankings as of Week 12
The first set of rankings were released Tuesday, Oct. 28, and rankings will be announced each Tuesday until the final rankings are announced on Sunday, Dec. 7.
The Nov. 11 rankings have Mississippi State ranked first, which is understandable given their undefeated record, although there are few people who actually believe they are the best team in college football, as mentioned earlier.
The No. 2 team is Oregon, who jumped in front of Florida State after beating Utah and the committee said the reason they bumped the Ducks up is because of their three wins over ranked teams, while the Seminoles only have two. The Ducks do however have a loss to then unranked Arizona, which has some rscratching their heads.
Florida State is No. 3 and the Seminoles have been playing with fire this season and could easily have several losses, but you have to have them in the top four as long as they keep winning.
The most controversy has come from No. 4 TCU, which has one loss, along with the other teams rounding out the top eight; Alabama, Arizona State, Baylor and Ohio State. TCU’s loss happened to come against Baylor, yet the Horned Frogs are currently in, while the Bears are on the outside. The committee’s logic on the reasoning of ranking TCU above Baylor could come back to haunt them if the Bears win out. Chairman Jeff Long said one reason TCU was ranked ahead of Baylor was that they had two top 25 wins, while the Bears have one. But Baylor closes out the season with a game against current No. 13 Kansas State and a Baylor win would give each team two wins over playoff committee-ranked teams, so it would be hard to justify choosing the Horned Frogs.
The next few weeks will be interesting, but no matter happens, you can expect there to be plenty of criticism over the current playoff format.
Feel Free to share your thoughts on the format and your predictions on who will make it to the final 4 in the comments section below.
Be sure to check back every Thursday as I will be posting updates along with a FREE pick each week.
Week 12 College Football Free Pick LSU vs Arkansas
11/15/2014 8:00 PM College Football 363 LSU/Arkansas* Under 48½ -110
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82
This weeks free pick is an under play. This game is going to feature in excess of 90% run plays. That means the clock is going to keep moving and we are likely to see a fairly fast game. Both teams play solid defense, and I like this to be a close one.
I also like this play with LSU on a 6 point teaser to get it at +7.5 and under 54.5 if you are a teaser player.
Lock it in
Lets Get It
Author: Rob Holiday
My background is in business, consulting, finance and entrepreneurship