NCAA Football Week 13 Update and Free Pick
It looks as though Mississippi State’s last-second touchdown against Alabama did more than cover the point spread, it also kept the Bulldogs in the top four of the college football playoff rankings, which were released on Tuesday. The Bulldogs dropped just three spots to No. 4, while Alabama jumped all the way from No. 5 to No. 1.
The committee is having all sorts of problems justifying those two decisions. Chairman Jeff Long said that the Crimson Tide jumped all the way to No. 1 because Alabama’s win was “decisive” but that the committee kept Mississippi State at No. 4 because they were within striking distance the entire game. Huh? Either the win was decisive or it wasn’t and if it was decisive enough to move Alabama all the up to No. 1, it could be argued that it should have been considered decisive enough to drop Mississippi State out of the top four. Likewise, if Alabama’s win wasn’t decisive enough to drop the Bulldogs out of the top four, it shouldn’t be considered decisive enough to move Alabama past Oregon and Florida State.
The Oregon Ducks stayed at No. 2 after a bye week and the Florida State Seminoles remained pat at No. 3 after a four-point road win against a decent Miami team. While a point can be made that the Seminoles should have jumped to No. 2 after defeating the Hurricanes it’s really not too important as the No. 2 and No. 3 teams will play each other in the semifinals.
Mississippi State’s hold on the No. 4 spot is rather weak, especially since the teams that it defeated earlier in the year, such as LSU, Auburn and Texas A & M, have struggled in recent weeks and removed a bit of the luster of those victories.
TCU fell to No. 5 in the rankings after a narrow victory over Kansas, while Ohio State jumped past Baylor to move into the No. 6 spot after defeating Minnesota. The Bears remained at No. 7 after having a week off.
The one thing that Long did say that made sense is that teams No. 4 through No. 7 are extremely close in the rankings and naturally that is where a lot of the debate over the committee’s rankings are taking place. Mississippi, UCLA and Georgia round out the top 10, but each of those teams has a pair of losses and would be hard-pressed to move into the top four.
The TCU vs. Baylor debate will continue through the end of the year, especially since the Big 12 doesn’t have a conference championship game. If both teams win the remained of their games they would be declared co-champions even though the Bears defeated the Horned Frogs on the playing field.
The Buckeyes may be playing as well as anybody in the country right now, but their early season loss to Virginia Tech continues to haunt them and even a victory in the Big 10 championship game against Wisconsin may not be enough to land them a spot in the top four.
Bettors have picked up on the closeness of the rankings and are looking for the teams in the mix to go all out to try and accumulate some style points with the committee by posting big victories. Baylor has moved from -26.5 to -28.5 over Oklahoma State, while the Buckeyes have moved from -33.5 to -34.5 against Indiana. Mississippi State opened -30 against Vanderbilt and has climbed a half-point to -30.5, while TCU is off until Thanksgiving when they play Texas.
Week 13 College Football Free Pick
We got an easy win with last weeks free pick of under 48 in the LSU Arkansas Game as the Razorbacks shut out the Tigers 17-0.
This weeks Free pick
11/22/2014 7:30 PM College Football 174 Baylor* -28 -120 vs Oklahoma State
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.67
This weeks Free pick goes to Baylor -28. They need to rack up the style points and it looks like they are going to be facing an Oklahoma State team without their starting QB. Lay the big Chalk and lock in the Bears at -28.
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Author: Rob Holiday
My background is in business, consulting, finance and entrepreneurship