Today's post features my first Superbowl Prop Betting Guide, enjoy! Ever since Chicago’s William “the Refrigerator” Perry scored a touchdown against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 20, Superbowl Prop Betting has become synonymous with the big game. This year is no different, as some sportsbooks are offering more than 500 proposition wagers on the Super Bowl. Some proposition bets, such as the number of yards Marshawn Lynch rushes for, can be determined by how a handicapper analyzes the game and what they see transpiring on the field, but there are plenty of proposition bets where the determining factor is strictly luck of the draw. Proposition betting has become big business for the sportsbooks and most now say that the props account for 30 to 50% of their total handle. When you consider that there will be an estimated $10 billion wagered on the game worldwide, although roughly one-quarter of that is through various office pools, square pools in taverns, etc., that still means several billion will be wagered on whether or not Lynch grabs his crotch after a touchdown, the color of hair dye Katy Perry uses or if the coin flip results in heads or tails. The most famous proposition bet is simply the coin toss, which has been around for years and at one time was considered the biggest novelty wager around, although that has long-been eclipsed by some of the more off-beat offerings that have come along in recent years. Not only can you bet whether the coin is heads or tails, you can wager which team wins the coin toss, if the team that calls the toss will be correct or if the team that wins the coin toss will win the game. The National Anthem is another well-known prop bet and this year you can wager if it takes Idina Menzel over or under 2 minutes, 1 second to sing the anthem at -120 either way or if she’ll forget or omit at least one word. The “no” is -700, so somebody believes that she’ll get everything right. The Super Bowl halftime show has evolved over the years and at one time consisted of the usual performances of marching bands. Television networks which lost out on the Super Bowl broadcast decided to put on popular entertainment acts during halftime as a way to entice people to switch away from the game. The Super Bowl decided to fight back and in 1991 had New Kids on the Block perform at halftime and have had name performers ever since. After the infamous “wardrobe malfunction” of Janet Jackson and Justin Timberlake in 2004, the Super Bowl went with older performers for a while, having the likes of Paul McCartney, Bruce Springsteen. Tom Petty and The Who. These bands who were popular enough that many sportsbooks would let you wager on which song they would open with or end with. In an effort to placate the younger audience, the Super Bowl returned to more contemporary acts the past few years, which brought an end to wagering on individual songs or the number of times Pete Townsend did the windmill. This year, you can wager on the color of Perry’s hair, how many times she’s mentioned in the first half and whether she wears pants, shorts or a dress/skirt at the beginning of her performance. Not to be outdone, you can also wager on the color of the hoodie New England fashion plate Bill Belichick wears and if it will be cut at the sleeves or not. A number of wagers relate to the television audience, such as will the Nielsen rating be over or under 47.5, will the number of viewers exceed 113 million and will the Seattle region or the Boston region have a higher percentage of people watching the game. Other wagers offered that have become somewhat commonplace include the color of the Gatorade that will be dumped on the winning coach, what the Dow Jones does the Monday after the game and who the MVP thanks first, with his teammates and God the two most popular choices. Those who would like to extend their wagers into Monday morning can elect to bet the Super Bowl/Groundhog Day parlay, where you can wager on which team wins the Super Bowl and parlay that to whether or not Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow or not. It’s the Super Bowl, so have a little bit of fun and good luck. My Pick for the Big Game... 2/1/2015 6:30 PM Reduced Football 102 Seattle Seahawks* +1 -110 vs New England Patriots
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 Taking the 1 point with Seattle. Ive been watching the line all week and there was a sharp reverse line move last night towards the Seahawks. This indicates some serious Sharp bets were flowing in on Seattle. Especially with all of the public money on the Pats. This isn't an easy game to pick, but I am going to side with the Seahawks and the better defense. Ill post a few prop bets that I like too closer to game time so be sure to check back around 6PM for some additional Picks.
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 NFL Conference Championship Betting TrendsTrend bettors are likely to be laying the points this Sunday, as favorites have been a decent bet in the NFL’s conference championship games over the years, standing at 35-23 against the spread since the 1985 season. Road favorites have helped pad those stats quite a bit, as they are 7-1 ATS, although that won’t come into play this Sunday. In the AFC, home teams are 18-11 straight-up and 14-15 ATS and totals have gone 15-14. Home favorites are 14-12 ATS and 18-8 straight-up over the years, while all favorites have posted a 21-8 straight-up record and are 17-12 ATS. It’s been nearly the same story in the NFC, as all favorites are 21-8 straight-up and 18-11 against the number. Home favorites are 17-7 straight up and 14-10 against the spread. NFC totals have been 15-12-2 over the years. NFL Rematch Betting TrendsInterestingly, both games are rematches of earlier season games in which the favorites completely dominated. The Seahawks defeated Green Bay 36-16 as 4.5-point favorites on opening day, while the Patriots thumped the Colts 42-20 in Indianapolis as 3-point underdogs. There have been six times when two teams met in opening week and then again in the conference championship game and the winner of the first encounter has won all six conference championship games. But if you remove the week one guideline and just look at games played at the same site as the conference championship game, you’d see that the winner of the first game was just 9-10 straight-up and 8-11 ATS in the conference championship game. Speaking of rematches, the Indianapolis Colts have thrived in second meetings under Chuck Pagano and are a perfect 12-0 straight-up. While nine of those wins have come against the AFC South, which isn’t saying a whole lot, their other three wins have come in the playoffs, defeating Kansas City last year and Cincinnati and Denver this season. NFL Conference Championship Public BettingThe public betting has pretty much been split in the Seattle game, but the Seahawks have climbed to -7.5 points at the majority of sportsbooks, while the Patriots are receiving a few more wagers than the Colts, although that didn’t stop the line from dropping a half-point to 6.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. Both totals have essentially remained unchanged. NFL Conference Championship Weather ForecastThe early weather forecast in Seattle is for temperatures around 50 degrees and naturally, a chance of showers, while things are expected to warm up greatly in Boston where the temperatures will be in the mid-40s with a chance of rain. College Football FuturesThe two teams involved in the college football championship game have had vastly different outcomes with their quarterback situations and that’s been reflected in the early odds to win next year’s championship. Ohio State’s Cardale Jones has decided to stay in college another year, which seems a bit odd for a guy who until last month was best-known for his Tweet of “Why should we have to go class if we came here to play FOOTBALL, we ain’t come to play SCHOOL, classes are POINTLESS.” With Jones back, along with J.T. Barrett and Braxton Miller, at least until somebody decides to transfer, and a host of other returning players, the Buckeyes are the early 5-to-1 favorites at Bovada/Bodog. As expected, Marcus Mariota has decided to go the NFL route, leaving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the dilemma of drafting him or Jameis Winston with the No. 1 pick, and as a result, the Ducks are 16-to-1 to win next year’s title, which puts them behind TCU, Baylor and Alabama, and tied with Oklahoma and USC. Sports Picker FREE Pick for Week 201/18/2015 3:05 PM NFL Football 302 Seattle Seahawks* -7 -120 vs Green Bay Packers I am taking Seattle at -7 to get it done vs Green Bay. The Packers didn't really deserve to win that game last week, and if they think they were in tough against Dallas, just wait for Seattle on the road. The Packers aren't the same team away from Lambeau, and I think this will be a fairly easy win for the Seahawks. Also be sure to check out our NEW Fantasy Sports Blog |
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College Football Playoff Bracket Update for Week 14
The college football playoff committee made one big change in the latest set of rankings that were released Tuesday evening and that was to move TCU ahead of undefeated Florida State to No. 3, while dropping the Seminoles to No. 4.
There are several possible reasons for the change, including that all four teams would play their first-round games closer to home if the current rankings hold up, although that likely has little to do with the move. The most likely reason for the change is to try and quiet the debate when the final rankings are released Sunday evening. TCU hosts Iowa State on Saturday and the Horned Frogs are favored by 34 points so a loss is unlikely, but expect to see No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Baylor making plenty of noise should they win on Saturday.
Should Florida State manage to defeat Georgia Tech on Saturday, the committee can simply tell Ohio State or Baylor that the Seminoles are undefeated. Should Florida State lose, things will get really interesting, especially when you factor in the quarterback situation for the Buckeyes and the Bears, who both saw their quarterbacks go down last Saturday due to injury. Ohio State’s J. T. Barrett is lost for the season, but the Buckeyes have a very talented backup in the 6-foot-5, 255-pound Cardale Jones, while Petty expects to play against Kansas State despite suffering a concussion in the team’s win over Texas Tech.
Westgate SuperBook, better known as the LVH, has said that Alabama would be favored by 11 over Florida State and Oregon would be a 2.5-point favorite over TCU.
No. 2 Oregon kicks off the week with a game against No. 7 Arizona and the Wildcats have won the last two meetings between the two, including a 31-24 decision at Autzen Stadium earlier this year as 20-point underdogs. Should lightning strike a third time, Arizona could find itself in the mix depending on what the other teams in the top six do, although the Ducks are 14.5-point favorites at Levi’s Stadium, where the 49ers play their home games.
No. 1 Alabama plays Missouri in the SEC title game on Saturday and are also favored by 14.5 points.
Florida State plays the Yellow Jackets for the ACC title and plenty of people are on the Georgia Tech bandwagon after they ran for nearly 400 yards in their victory over Georgia last week. The Seminoles are favored by four points and the team’s second-leading rusher, Karlos Williams, is questionable for the game.
No. 5 Ohio State has a tough game against Wisconsin and the Badgers are 4.5 point favorites due to the Buckeye’s quarterback injury. But Ohio State has dominated Wisconsin over the years, as the Buckeyes have been favored in 44 of the last 46 games. The two times the Badgers were favored Ohio State won the game straight-up.
Baylor’s close call last week didn’t help them any, although a victory over a pretty good (and ranked) Kansas State team would, probably just not enough, barring an upset or two above them. The Bears are favored by 7.5 points.
No. 22 Boise State looks to have a firm grasp on the New Year’s Day bowl game after Marshall was defeated by Western Kentucky last week. The playoff committee elects one team from outside the five major conferences (Pac-12, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big 10) to play in one of the four New Year’s Day games, and if Boise State defeats Fresno State for the Mountain West championship that should be theirs. Boise State is favored by 21 points and is the only team from outside the Big Five to be ranked.
There are several possible reasons for the change, including that all four teams would play their first-round games closer to home if the current rankings hold up, although that likely has little to do with the move. The most likely reason for the change is to try and quiet the debate when the final rankings are released Sunday evening. TCU hosts Iowa State on Saturday and the Horned Frogs are favored by 34 points so a loss is unlikely, but expect to see No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Baylor making plenty of noise should they win on Saturday.
Should Florida State manage to defeat Georgia Tech on Saturday, the committee can simply tell Ohio State or Baylor that the Seminoles are undefeated. Should Florida State lose, things will get really interesting, especially when you factor in the quarterback situation for the Buckeyes and the Bears, who both saw their quarterbacks go down last Saturday due to injury. Ohio State’s J. T. Barrett is lost for the season, but the Buckeyes have a very talented backup in the 6-foot-5, 255-pound Cardale Jones, while Petty expects to play against Kansas State despite suffering a concussion in the team’s win over Texas Tech.
Westgate SuperBook, better known as the LVH, has said that Alabama would be favored by 11 over Florida State and Oregon would be a 2.5-point favorite over TCU.
No. 2 Oregon kicks off the week with a game against No. 7 Arizona and the Wildcats have won the last two meetings between the two, including a 31-24 decision at Autzen Stadium earlier this year as 20-point underdogs. Should lightning strike a third time, Arizona could find itself in the mix depending on what the other teams in the top six do, although the Ducks are 14.5-point favorites at Levi’s Stadium, where the 49ers play their home games.
No. 1 Alabama plays Missouri in the SEC title game on Saturday and are also favored by 14.5 points.
Florida State plays the Yellow Jackets for the ACC title and plenty of people are on the Georgia Tech bandwagon after they ran for nearly 400 yards in their victory over Georgia last week. The Seminoles are favored by four points and the team’s second-leading rusher, Karlos Williams, is questionable for the game.
No. 5 Ohio State has a tough game against Wisconsin and the Badgers are 4.5 point favorites due to the Buckeye’s quarterback injury. But Ohio State has dominated Wisconsin over the years, as the Buckeyes have been favored in 44 of the last 46 games. The two times the Badgers were favored Ohio State won the game straight-up.
Baylor’s close call last week didn’t help them any, although a victory over a pretty good (and ranked) Kansas State team would, probably just not enough, barring an upset or two above them. The Bears are favored by 7.5 points.
No. 22 Boise State looks to have a firm grasp on the New Year’s Day bowl game after Marshall was defeated by Western Kentucky last week. The playoff committee elects one team from outside the five major conferences (Pac-12, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big 10) to play in one of the four New Year’s Day games, and if Boise State defeats Fresno State for the Mountain West championship that should be theirs. Boise State is favored by 21 points and is the only team from outside the Big Five to be ranked.
College Football Free Pick
12/6/2014 8:15 PM Reduced Football 128 Ohio State* +4½ -107 vs Wisconsin
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.93
12/6/2014 8:15 PM Reduced Football 128 Ohio State* +175 vs Wisconsin
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.75
I really like Ohio State to get it done this week. I think they step up and get a big win even with the back up QB who, i think a lot of people be caught off guard by. This line went from -3.5 to +4.5, I love Ohio State as an underdog, I think they even get the win.
Lets Get It
Rob
Risking 1.00 To Win 0.93
12/6/2014 8:15 PM Reduced Football 128 Ohio State* +175 vs Wisconsin
Risking 1.00 To Win 1.75
I really like Ohio State to get it done this week. I think they step up and get a big win even with the back up QB who, i think a lot of people be caught off guard by. This line went from -3.5 to +4.5, I love Ohio State as an underdog, I think they even get the win.
Lets Get It
Rob
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There were no changes in the top seven of the college football playoff rankings, which were released on Tuesday, although there is growing concern over some of the things the committee was saying will happen in the future. The biggest complaint many people had was the still unknown “conference championship bonus” which has been referred to, but never really spelled out.
If teams are indeed awarded bonus points for winning their conference title, No. 4 Mississippi State could very well be on its way out of the playoff regardless of what happens in Saturday’s Egg Bowl against Mississippi. The picture if further clouded by the possibility of TCU and Baylor finishing tied for the Big 12 championship, since the conference has no championship game, as well as Ohio State winning the Big 10 championship game.
Naturally, what takes place on the field over the next three days can change quite a bit of planning and you have to believe the committee wouldn’t be too terribly upset if the Texas Longhorns can pull off the upset of TCU on Thanksgiving or ‘Ole Miss can rise to the occasion and knock off the Bulldogs.
A number of teams in the top seven are expected to have games this week, beginning with top-ranked Alabama, which is favored by 8.5 points over No. 15 Auburn on Saturday.
The No. 2 Oregon Ducks are healthy 19.5-point favorites over Oregon State and No. 3 Florida State is now down to being a 7.5-point favorite over the disappointing Florida Gators, after opening as 10-point favorites.
There is some debate about whether or not Florida State should be ranked below two teams with one loss, although the Seminoles haven’t been all that impressive during the year. Or as CBS Sports analyst Gary Danielson said, “One more win and they could be out of it.”
Mississippi State may be in for a battle according to the oddsmakers who opened the Bulldogs as 1-point favorites over the Rebels, although the betting public has pushed the number up to 2.5 and a few sportsbooks have it at 3.
No. 5 TCU is favored by a touchdown over the longhorns today and No. 6 Ohio State is favored by 20.5 to 21 over Michigan and Baylor is favored by 25 over Texas Tech. Both the lines on Ohio State and Baylor have climbed slightly from the opening numbers even though both failed to cover last week as extremely popular plays.
No. 8 UCLA can’t quite bit counted out completely, as a PAC-12 conference championship win over Oregon could very well be enough to boost them into the top four, especially if one or two of the teams ranked about them right now stumbles.
While the majority of the debate has been centered at the top of the polls, another one is brewing towards the very bottom of the top 25, as No. 23 Boise State and No. 24 Marshall are in a battle for the playoff committee’s automatic bid to one of the New Year’s bowl games. The committee selects the highest rated team from the American Athletic, Conference USA, the Mid-American, the Mountain West and the Sun Belt.
While Boise State has lost two games, the Broncos have played a tougher schedule than the Thundering Herd, but Marshall does have the advantage of being undefeated and is ranked higher in USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, which the committee looks at.
Boise State does play a tough Utah State team on Saturday and that game could have a big impact on which team plays on Jan. 1. The Aggies aren’t ranked, but a win over Boise State would likely vault them into the discussion for that spot, as well.
If teams are indeed awarded bonus points for winning their conference title, No. 4 Mississippi State could very well be on its way out of the playoff regardless of what happens in Saturday’s Egg Bowl against Mississippi. The picture if further clouded by the possibility of TCU and Baylor finishing tied for the Big 12 championship, since the conference has no championship game, as well as Ohio State winning the Big 10 championship game.
Naturally, what takes place on the field over the next three days can change quite a bit of planning and you have to believe the committee wouldn’t be too terribly upset if the Texas Longhorns can pull off the upset of TCU on Thanksgiving or ‘Ole Miss can rise to the occasion and knock off the Bulldogs.
A number of teams in the top seven are expected to have games this week, beginning with top-ranked Alabama, which is favored by 8.5 points over No. 15 Auburn on Saturday.
The No. 2 Oregon Ducks are healthy 19.5-point favorites over Oregon State and No. 3 Florida State is now down to being a 7.5-point favorite over the disappointing Florida Gators, after opening as 10-point favorites.
There is some debate about whether or not Florida State should be ranked below two teams with one loss, although the Seminoles haven’t been all that impressive during the year. Or as CBS Sports analyst Gary Danielson said, “One more win and they could be out of it.”
Mississippi State may be in for a battle according to the oddsmakers who opened the Bulldogs as 1-point favorites over the Rebels, although the betting public has pushed the number up to 2.5 and a few sportsbooks have it at 3.
No. 5 TCU is favored by a touchdown over the longhorns today and No. 6 Ohio State is favored by 20.5 to 21 over Michigan and Baylor is favored by 25 over Texas Tech. Both the lines on Ohio State and Baylor have climbed slightly from the opening numbers even though both failed to cover last week as extremely popular plays.
No. 8 UCLA can’t quite bit counted out completely, as a PAC-12 conference championship win over Oregon could very well be enough to boost them into the top four, especially if one or two of the teams ranked about them right now stumbles.
While the majority of the debate has been centered at the top of the polls, another one is brewing towards the very bottom of the top 25, as No. 23 Boise State and No. 24 Marshall are in a battle for the playoff committee’s automatic bid to one of the New Year’s bowl games. The committee selects the highest rated team from the American Athletic, Conference USA, the Mid-American, the Mountain West and the Sun Belt.
While Boise State has lost two games, the Broncos have played a tougher schedule than the Thundering Herd, but Marshall does have the advantage of being undefeated and is ranked higher in USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, which the committee looks at.
Boise State does play a tough Utah State team on Saturday and that game could have a big impact on which team plays on Jan. 1. The Aggies aren’t ranked, but a win over Boise State would likely vault them into the discussion for that spot, as well.
Week 14 NCAA Football Free Pick
11/28/2014 2:30 PM Reduced Football 338 UCLA* -6 -105 vs Stanford
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90
Stanford has owned this match-up in recent years, but this year is a different Cardinal team. They don't have the same defense they have in past years, especially in the secondary where I think UCLA is going to be able to exploit them for some big plays. UCLA routed USC last weekend, a team that plays a very similar style to Stanford, and I think the Bruins are hitting their stride at the right time this year. UCLA wins by 7 or more.
Lets Get It
Rob
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90
Stanford has owned this match-up in recent years, but this year is a different Cardinal team. They don't have the same defense they have in past years, especially in the secondary where I think UCLA is going to be able to exploit them for some big plays. UCLA routed USC last weekend, a team that plays a very similar style to Stanford, and I think the Bruins are hitting their stride at the right time this year. UCLA wins by 7 or more.
Lets Get It
Rob
Author: Rob Holiday
My background is in business, consulting, finance and entrepreneurship
I started Sports-Picker.com to share my love of sports and to share my picks and strategy with others.
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