Email: Tue, Sep 9, 2014 at 9:11 AM 9/9/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 921 Baltimore Orioles* -136 vs Boston Red Sox C Tillman - R Listed A Ranaudo - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.74 (WINNER) 9/9/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Baseball 921 Baltimore Orioles* -1½ +125 vs Boston Red Sox C Tillman - R Listed A Ranaudo - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.63 (WINNER) The Orioles are hot right now, especially with Tillman on the mound. They have won his last 8 starts running all the way back to July 29th, he actually hasn't factored into a loss since July 12th. He holds a 2.81 ERA over 16 innings pitched vs Boston this year and the Orioles have been providing a healthy amount of run support, averaging 5.2 runs over their last 10 games. Boston is starting Ranaudo who comes into this game at 3-1 on the year but he has only won due to some great run support, his ERA sits at 4.63 and he got beat up in his last outing vs the Yankees. I like this to be a 5-2 type game for Baltimore. 9/9/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 915 Kansas City Royals* +163 vs Detroit Tigers J Vargas - L Listed M Scherzer - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.63 (Loss) I have to go with KC here. The books are giving Scherzer too much respect in this one. Scherzers worst game of the year came against KC where they put up 10 runs over 4 innings against him. I agree that the Tigers should be the favorite here at home, but KC does hold a better record on the road and Vargas has pitched very well for them this year. I also give the advantage to the KC bullpen if this one is close down the stretch I like the chances of KC getting a 1 run win in the 8th or 9th inning. This is a great value play for 1 unit. Lets Get It Rob
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Email: Mon, Sep 8, 2014 at 8:38 AM 9/8/2014 10:20 PM Reduced Football 492 Arizona Cardinals* -2½ -110 vs San Diego Chargers Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (Loss) This on just dropped to -2.5 so I am going to lock it in as I really see this game as being a close one and I have to side with the home team in a big week 1 game under the national spot light. This is just a 1 unit play as there are some concerns about how the Cardinals will perform after the injury bug hit during preseason. On the other side I have the same concerns about how Rivers will respond to losing his offensive coordinator Ken Whistenhunt. I think this is a bigger deal than many people realize as Rivers developed dramatically under Whistenhunt's guidance over the last couple years. This isn't a slam dunk play but I see value in taking the Cardinals at home tonight for 1 unit at under a field goal. 9/8/2014 7:10 PM Reduced Football 490 Detroit Lions* -6½ -102 vs New York Giants Risking 1.50 To Win 1.47 (WINNER) 9/8/2014 7:10 PM NFL Football 490 Detroit Lions* -9½ +150 vs New York Giants Risking 0.50 To Win 0.75 (WINNER) I am making a 1.5 unit pay on the main spread here at -6.5 and I am going with another half unit on the alternate line at -9.5. I honestly think this game could get very ugly for Eli Manning and I think he could spend an awful lot of time staring at the ceiling of Ford field. The Giants offensive line is in shambles, combine that with the type of ruthless pass-rush of Detroit, headed by Ndamukong Suh and things could get very ugly for the Giants very quickly on the road here. Last year Eli lead the league in Interceptions throwing 27 of them on 551 passes for a 4.9% INT rate, with the O line only getting worse I don't see that stat improving much this year, and if there is one thing that leads to blow outs, its turnovers. On the other side of the ball the Lions have one of the deadliest passing running combinations in the NFL. Stafford now has a 2nd big time target in Golden Tate and they also added 1st round pick Eric Ebron. This should open up plenty of lanes for Bush to run the ball and make keep the Giants D on their heels. 9/8/2014 10:10 PM Reduced Baseball 972 Seattle Mariners* -1½ -120 vs Houston Astros B Peacock - R Listed F Hernandez - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.25 (WINNER) Seattle needs this win to keep their slim lead in the wild card standings. They are sending their Ace Hernandez to the mound today vs Peacock for the Astros. I don't think I need to rehash how good Felix is, but I can mention how bad Peacock has been, especially on the road. He comes into this game with a 5.01 ERA, when we look at his performance vs Seattle its even worse as his ERA jumps to 6.35 and he has also struggled on the road this year at 6.14 ERA. Overall I think this is a very important game for a very talented team in Seattle and I expect them to get a convincing win. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 2, 2014 at 10:16 AM 9/7/2014 1:00 PM NFL Football 477 Washington Redskins/Houston Texans* Under 45 -105 Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (WINNER) Houston should be the most improved team this year. Their one two punch of Watt and Clowny is going to be menacing for opposing offences to deal with. I am still not sold on Houston's ability to put points up on offence, so combined with their defense I like this to be a lower scoring game. Further, looking at Washington's performance last year they provide that RG3 is just not the same threat without the option, and I really don't see them risking his heath this early in the season, so they will likely be limiting his running. During Washington's 8 game losing streak to finish last year they averaged just over 16 points per game, given they will be up against one of the best Defenses in the league I don't see them scoring much more than 13 or so, strangely enough when we look at Houston's last 8 games from 2013 they too averaged just over 13 points per game. Only way I see this one going over is if we get some fluky turnovers that lead to points, or some big special teams plays. 9/7/2014 4:25 PM NFL Football 485 San Francisco 49ers* -4½ -110 vs Dallas Cowboys Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER) My 2nd NFL play for this week is on San Fran to cover the points vs Dallas. Dallas may have the worst defense in the league this year, looking back to last season they were 2nd worst overall, and they actually lost defensive players in the off season. When we look at Colin Kaepernick, he feasted on bad defenses, in 2013, and to make things worse for the Cowboy's, San Fran has Crabtree back in the lineup this year. The bad Dallas D, combined with San Frans offense and solid defense could make this a very ugly opener for Jerry's boys. Email: Sun, Sep 7, 2014 at 8:04 AM 9/7/2014 4:25 PM Reduced Football 485 San Francisco 49ers/Dallas Cowboys* Over 50 -105 Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (Loss) This line just dropped to 50. I am taking another 1 unit on the over for the same reasons that I explained in my email taking San Fran. Dallas defense is just dreadful this year and for them to have any chance of keeping this close Romo and Bryant are going to have to air things out a lot. Take the over and San Fran. 9/7/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 475 Buffalo Bills* +7 -108 vs Chicago Bears Risking 1.00 To Win 0.93 (WINNER) 9/7/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 475 Buffalo Bills/Chicago Bears* Over 47 -107 Risking 1.50 To Win 1.40 (Loss) I have to take the Bills here for 1 unit. This line opened at 6 and after moving to 7 has stayed there for a few days even with the books taking over 80% of the money on Chicago. There is something fishy about a line that doesn't move when you get over 80% of the money on 1 team. (83% right now as of 10am this morning) Looking at the matchup, the Bills have some improved receiving core which should be headlined by their 4th overall pick Sammy Watkins. Watkins is officially listed as questionable but is expected to play today. If EJ Manuel can stay healthy and develop some chemistry with Watkins I think the combination of run threat with CJ Spiller and Pass threat with Watkins could be a dangerous combination this year, especially with some play action. Looking at the other side of the ball Chicago isn't the defense it once was, and I am still not sold on Cutler as a franchise quarterback, he seems to get to caught up in the media and often doesn't come through under pressure. He will put up some points but I like there to be a few turnovers in this game and likely both teams will keep things close which should put the total over 47. I could very easily see this one coming down to a big play in the 4th quarter. Going with 1 unit on Buffalo and 1.5 units on the over. Email: Sun, Sep 7, 2014 at 8:22 AM I am adding one NFL Teaser play to today's Card. Confirm Teaser - NFL sides 6½ pts 3 Leg @ +150
I don't often play teasers on my VIP Picks but this combination doesn't include any of our other plays and each of the plays crosses a key number so it provides a great payout with some fantastic value. Lets Get It Rob Email: Fri, Sep 5, 2014 at 1:38 PM 9/6/2014 6:30 PM College Football 351 Michigan State* +14 -120 vs Oregon Risking 2.50 To Win 2.08 (Loss) 9/6/2014 6:30 PM Reduced Football 351 Michigan State* +420 vs Oregon Risking 0.50 To Win 2.10 (Loss) This should be the game of the week in CFB. Michigan State is an excellent team and in many ways mirrors the Stanford team that beat Oregon last year. Speaking of last season, Michigan State went 12-1 last year, and having watched the game they lost to Notre Dame, they would have won if not for a few botched calls by the refs, which would have put them at 13-0 and given them a direct line to the National Championship. They have plenty of starters back, Connor Cook is playing solid and the defense is firing on all cylinders. Oregon historically has fits with teams that have defenses like Michigan State. I love the fact that we can get this game up to 14 points at -120 in a game that I see being very close. Oregon just isn't the same team without head coach chip Kelly and looking at how they fell apart at the end of last season, I really don't think they deserve the #3 ranking they currently hold. This one should fall well within the number and I give Michigan State about a 50% change of winning this game in a close one. Note: This line is at +12 on a lot of books right now but sitting at +13.5 on 5Dimes the Money Line spread is even more dramatic it's at +375 on Bet365 but +420 on 5Dimes Reduced. If you don't have a 5Dimes account, I highly recommend you open one for this College Ball Season or you will be leaving a lot of money on the table. Email: Sat, Sep 6, 2014 at 7:57 AM 9/6/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 324 Temple* +3 +100 vs Navy Risking 1.00 To Win 1.00 (Loss) 9/6/2014 1:00 PM Reduced Football 324 Temple* +145 vs Navy Risking 1.00 To Win 1.45 (Loss) Short write up here. This one is a very evenly matched game, I really give it a coin flip and I have to take the home team in this kind of situation. Especially when we are getting plus money and 3 points against an option offence 9/6/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 377 Virginia Tech* +12 -110 vs Ohio State Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 (WINNER) Ohio St came very close to not covering vs Navy last week and they definitely are not the same team without Braxton Miller. Today they are facing one of the top defenses they will face all year. Look at what Michigan St did to them last, bottom line is they struggle against good strong D ;-). The Hokies are no pushover, looking at their performance all year last year they step up for the big games and play a very solid methodical game on both sides of the ball. The books are being too generous here. I like VA Tech to cover and maybe even make this interesting down the stretch. 9/6/2014 3:30 PM Reduced Football 340 Stanford* -3 -102 vs USC Risking 2.00 To Win 1.96 (Loss) I am adding one more play to today's card. I have to take Stanford at home here. They will be out for revenge after losing the close one to USC last year and i like them to ride the home Field advantage to a win today. Stanford wasn't really tested last week but showed up big with a dominant 45-0 win over UC Davis. The main thing i wanted to see from that game was a commitment to solid defence and we got that. USC got a solid win over a Fresno State team that is lost without Carr. The one thing that i was surprised about was the amount of ground game they went with. I dont see them having the same kind of success with that approach vs Stanford today. Last years matchup between these two could have gone either way but USC got the upper hand. I think this one comes down to who controls the line of scrimmage, which i give the advantage to Stanford. Lets Get It Rob Email:Fri, Sep 5, 2014 at 12:22 PM 9/5/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 923 Seattle Mariners* -1½ -105 vs Texas Rangers H Iwakuma - R Listed S Baker - R Listed Risking 1.50 To Win 1.43 (WINNER) 9/5/2014 8:05 PM Reduced Baseball 923 Seattle Mariners* -2½ -150 vs Texas Rangers H Iwakuma - R Listed S Baker - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.75 (Loss) This is the most lopsided matchup of the day. The Mariners are 1st or 2nd in most statistical categories and the Rangers are 29th... look at Runs allowed seattle is 1st at 3.3, Texas is 29th at 5.0. Hits allowed 1st vs 28th, ERA Seattle 1st at 3.04 and Texas 29th at 4.71. Tonight we have Iwakuma ERA 2.90 vs Scott Baker 5.23. Texas has only scored 9 total runs over their past 6 games. Iwakuma has won 5 in a row, all by 2 or more runs and he has a 1.69 ERA vs Texas. The bottom line is Texas isn't scoring runs and Seattle isn't giving them up. 9/5/2014 7:05 PM MLB Baseball 918 New York Yankees* -122 vs Kansas City Royals for 1st 5 Innings J Shields - R Listed M Pineda - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.82 (Loss) 9/5/2014 7:05 PM Reduced Baseball 918 New York Yankees* -1½ +185 vs Kansas City Royals J Shields - R Listed M Pineda - R Listed Risking 0.50 To Win 0.93 (Loss) KC has won 4 in a row to begin this road trip, this is the perfect time for a setback, as they are facing Pineda who owned them last time out. Pineda has been fantastic since returning from injury. His fastball command has been giving opponents fits. Now I am taking the 1st half line for 1 unit as I like the Yankees to have the lead after 5 innings, the Yankees should be able to build a nice lead and I expect them to hang on, but if the game is close I have to give the edge to the KC Bullpen as they have been some of the best in the league this year. Looking at Shields he has been a solid starter for KC but hasn't faired well against the Yankees where he is 9-16 with a 4.33 ERA in 30 career starts. The Royals are 0-4 in their last 4 games as underdogs and they haven't played well vs AL East opponents lately either. Take the Yankees 1st half and put a half unit on the RL. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 2, 2014 at 10:16 AM 9/4/2014 8:00 PM College Football 301 Arizona U* -7 -105 vs Texas San Antonio Risking 2.00 To Win 1.90 (Loss) + I am going to make an alternate point spread play at -9.5 once the line becomes available. This will be a 1 unit play and we should be getting odds around +140 for it. I will send out the exact pick once the line goes up. If by chance it is not available or you don't have alternate line options, then this is a 3 unit play on Arizona. I am going with a 2 unit play on Arizona here. The Wildcats looked very solid in their first outing vs UNLV where they crushed the Rebels 58-13. Looking at the stats for the game Arizona was very solid on all fronts, Soloman smoked the Rebel defense for 425 yards and the Wildcats put up a total of 787 yards of offense. The defense played a bend don't break game allowing 371 yards but holding the rebels to 13 points. Another very important stat the Wildcats had only 1 turnover in the game which is a key stat in college ball especially early in the season. Texas SA got a big underdog win over Houston winning 27-7 as a +8.5 point dog. When we dig into the game the big difference was the turnover margin, Houston turned the ball over a ridiculous 7 times in the game, 4 interceptions and 3 fumbles. With Arizona's experience I don't see them giving UTSA that kind of turnover advantage in this game. My math shows that this spread should be closer to 14 points, but UTSA got a big boost in their strength due to the bad showing by Houston. Snatch this game up early as I wouldn't be surprised if it moves up closer to game day. Email: Thu, Sep 4, 2014 at 9:21 AM I am sticking with Arizona tonight -7 and I am adding a play on the under. I like this one to be a fairly low scoring game for College ball, somewhere in the 27-16 range for Arizona. I haven't seen the alternate lines posted so we are going to stick with our play on the spread at -7 and I also like the Under tonight so I am adding a unit play there. 9/4/2014 8:00 PM Reduced Football 301 Arizona U/Texas San Antonio* Under 56 -110 Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (WINNER) Note: There has been a lot of media hype about UTSA and their performance over Houston last week, i think its overblown and this is a situation where I am fading the public as I have more confidence in the Arizona supporting cast to come up big and get a solid road win here. Lets Get It Rob Email: Wed, Sep 3, 2014 at 2:05 PM 9/3/2014 8:10 PM Reduced Baseball 925 Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins* Over 9 -110 J Danks - L Listed T May - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 0.91 (WINNER) Both of these teams are starting fairly weak pitchers tonight, and both teams have been getting themselves into shootouts. The Twins games have averaged 10.8 runs per game over the last 5 and Chicago is right behind at 9.2. With Danks and May starting i expect this one to have some fire works too. Take the over. Lets Get It Rob Email: Tue, Sep 2, 2014 at 11:37 AM 9/2/2014 7:10 PM MLB Baseball 955 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs* Under 7 +110 Y Gallardo - R Listed J Arrieta - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.10 (Loss) I am taking the under 7 line here. This game features two excellent pitchers vs two teams who have struggled to put up runs since the AS break. Looking at the Cubs, they are averaging 3.66 runs per game and they are starting Arrieta who seems to have a rough game every once in a while, then rebounds with 3 or 4 very solid outings. He got roughed up for 6 runs over 4 innings in his last game vs the Reds and I expect him to come back focused and determined tonight. The Brewers are averaging 3.87 runs per game which should be less vs a pitcher of Arrieta's caliber, and they are starting Gillardo who has been hot and cold this season but has pitched consistently well when on the road. Looking at his road performances this year he has a 2.39 ERA and a WHIP of 1.10. This should make for a very close game, and I like the total to go under 7 runs. 9/2/2014 10:05 PM MLB Baseball 977 Seattle Mariners* +128 vs Oakland Athletics J Paxton - L Listed S Gray - R Listed Risking 1.00 To Win 1.28 (WINNER) After a fantastic start to the year, Sonny Gray hasn't faired so well lately. The As have lost 5 of his last 6 starts and he has carded 4 losses in over those 6 games. Opponents are hitting Gray well and doing it early in the game. Seattle is countering with James Paxton who comes into this game with a 1.83 ERA and having a record of 4-1 on the year. To he has also looked very solid on the road where he has a 1.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. This one should be a close game and I will take the plus money payout on the underdog. Lets Get It Rob |
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