NCAA Football Week 13 Update and Free PickIt looks as though Mississippi State’s last-second touchdown against Alabama did more than cover the point spread, it also kept the Bulldogs in the top four of the college football playoff rankings, which were released on Tuesday. The Bulldogs dropped just three spots to No. 4, while Alabama jumped all the way from No. 5 to No. 1. The committee is having all sorts of problems justifying those two decisions. Chairman Jeff Long said that the Crimson Tide jumped all the way to No. 1 because Alabama’s win was “decisive” but that the committee kept Mississippi State at No. 4 because they were within striking distance the entire game. Huh? Either the win was decisive or it wasn’t and if it was decisive enough to move Alabama all the up to No. 1, it could be argued that it should have been considered decisive enough to drop Mississippi State out of the top four. Likewise, if Alabama’s win wasn’t decisive enough to drop the Bulldogs out of the top four, it shouldn’t be considered decisive enough to move Alabama past Oregon and Florida State. The Oregon Ducks stayed at No. 2 after a bye week and the Florida State Seminoles remained pat at No. 3 after a four-point road win against a decent Miami team. While a point can be made that the Seminoles should have jumped to No. 2 after defeating the Hurricanes it’s really not too important as the No. 2 and No. 3 teams will play each other in the semifinals. Mississippi State’s hold on the No. 4 spot is rather weak, especially since the teams that it defeated earlier in the year, such as LSU, Auburn and Texas A & M, have struggled in recent weeks and removed a bit of the luster of those victories. TCU fell to No. 5 in the rankings after a narrow victory over Kansas, while Ohio State jumped past Baylor to move into the No. 6 spot after defeating Minnesota. The Bears remained at No. 7 after having a week off. The one thing that Long did say that made sense is that teams No. 4 through No. 7 are extremely close in the rankings and naturally that is where a lot of the debate over the committee’s rankings are taking place. Mississippi, UCLA and Georgia round out the top 10, but each of those teams has a pair of losses and would be hard-pressed to move into the top four. The TCU vs. Baylor debate will continue through the end of the year, especially since the Big 12 doesn’t have a conference championship game. If both teams win the remained of their games they would be declared co-champions even though the Bears defeated the Horned Frogs on the playing field. The Buckeyes may be playing as well as anybody in the country right now, but their early season loss to Virginia Tech continues to haunt them and even a victory in the Big 10 championship game against Wisconsin may not be enough to land them a spot in the top four. Bettors have picked up on the closeness of the rankings and are looking for the teams in the mix to go all out to try and accumulate some style points with the committee by posting big victories. Baylor has moved from -26.5 to -28.5 over Oklahoma State, while the Buckeyes have moved from -33.5 to -34.5 against Indiana. Mississippi State opened -30 against Vanderbilt and has climbed a half-point to -30.5, while TCU is off until Thanksgiving when they play Texas. Week 13 College Football Free PickWe got an easy win with last weeks free pick of under 48 in the LSU Arkansas Game as the Razorbacks shut out the Tigers 17-0.
This weeks Free pick 11/22/2014 7:30 PM College Football 174 Baylor* -28 -120 vs Oklahoma State Risking 2.00 To Win 1.67 This weeks Free pick goes to Baylor -28. They need to rack up the style points and it looks like they are going to be facing an Oklahoma State team without their starting QB. Lay the big Chalk and lock in the Bears at -28. Lets Get It Rob P.S. Be Sure to bookmark this page and check back every Thursday for a new Playoff Update and Free Pick. P.S.S. There is still time to get in on the last months of College Football picks with a VIP Package. College Picks are just $49 per month (thats only $12.50 per week for all my College Football Picks) Click the link below to sign up now.
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College Football Playoff Predictions UpdateEach week now through the end of the season I am going to be posting a college football playoff picture update every Thursday afternoon - along with a free pick. Be sure to bookmark the site and check back every week. The first college football playoff games are still a little more than six weeks away and many people are already finding fault with the system. Look no farther than this week’s games where No. 1-ranked Mississippi State is an 8.5-point underdog to No. 5 Alabama and No. 3 Florida State is just a 2.5-point favorite over un-ranked Miami, Fla. The College Football Playoff CommitteeThe College Football Playoff Committee has an unenviable task, as there is no way to please everybody, particularly fans of one-loss teams who are on the outside looking in right now. The 13-member committee has a strong football pedigree, although several members, such as Lt. General Mike Gould, who is former Superintendent of U.S. Air Force Academy, and Condoleezza Rice, former United States Secretary of State, have absolutely nothing in their background that would appear to make them qualified for voting on the top football teams in the country. The rest of the committee is made up by a number of familiar names, such as former quarterbacks Pat Haden, Oliver Luck and Archie Manning; former coaches Tom Osborne, Barry Alvarez and Tyrone Willingham, and several others who have been involved in college athletics in one form or another. The College Football Playoff Committee's JobThe committee states their job is to “select the best teams, rank the teams for inclusion in the playoff and selected other bowl games and, then assign the teams to sites.” When the committee votes on its top 25 teams, the first step is vote on which teams are included in a pool of teams and then rank those teams. According to the committee, factors that they look at are win-loss record, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents and conference championships. The College Football Payoff Format 2014 through 2016The playoff format will see two bowl games used as the semifinals each year, beginning with the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl this year, with both games played on the traditional New Year’s Day and the final game played in Arlington, Texas, on Jan. 12. Next year, the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl will be used for the semifinals and the championship game will be Jan. 11, 2016 in Glendale, Ariz. In 2016, it will be the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl used for the semifinals and the championship game will be played in Tampa. Current College Football Rankings as of Week 12The first set of rankings were released Tuesday, Oct. 28, and rankings will be announced each Tuesday until the final rankings are announced on Sunday, Dec. 7. The Nov. 11 rankings have Mississippi State ranked first, which is understandable given their undefeated record, although there are few people who actually believe they are the best team in college football, as mentioned earlier. The No. 2 team is Oregon, who jumped in front of Florida State after beating Utah and the committee said the reason they bumped the Ducks up is because of their three wins over ranked teams, while the Seminoles only have two. The Ducks do however have a loss to then unranked Arizona, which has some rscratching their heads. Florida State is No. 3 and the Seminoles have been playing with fire this season and could easily have several losses, but you have to have them in the top four as long as they keep winning. The Controversy The most controversy has come from No. 4 TCU, which has one loss, along with the other teams rounding out the top eight; Alabama, Arizona State, Baylor and Ohio State. TCU’s loss happened to come against Baylor, yet the Horned Frogs are currently in, while the Bears are on the outside. The committee’s logic on the reasoning of ranking TCU above Baylor could come back to haunt them if the Bears win out. Chairman Jeff Long said one reason TCU was ranked ahead of Baylor was that they had two top 25 wins, while the Bears have one. But Baylor closes out the season with a game against current No. 13 Kansas State and a Baylor win would give each team two wins over playoff committee-ranked teams, so it would be hard to justify choosing the Horned Frogs. The next few weeks will be interesting, but no matter happens, you can expect there to be plenty of criticism over the current playoff format. Feel Free to share your thoughts on the format and your predictions on who will make it to the final 4 in the comments section below. Be sure to check back every Thursday as I will be posting updates along with a FREE pick each week. Week 12 College Football Free Pick LSU vs Arkansas11/15/2014 8:00 PM College Football 363 LSU/Arkansas* Under 48½ -110
Risking 2.00 To Win 1.82 This weeks free pick is an under play. This game is going to feature in excess of 90% run plays. That means the clock is going to keep moving and we are likely to see a fairly fast game. Both teams play solid defense, and I like this to be a close one. I also like this play with LSU on a 6 point teaser to get it at +7.5 and under 54.5 if you are a teaser player. Lock it in Lets Get It Rob NHL betting tips for NHL Handicappers
Up for trying something new on your sportsbook this fall? Although NHL is the least popular of the four major North American professional sports, there are lots of opportunities to profit. Here are some NHL Betting Tips to help get you started.
If you are interested in starting out, consider these tips to get you started in NHL Handicapping. If you are looking for some more advanced NHL Betting Strategy, Check out my fully guaranteed NHL Sports Investing Program. NHL Betting Tip #1 - Research and Repeat
Start with the basics
Like any all sports, it’s imperative that you do your homework. To bet on the NHL with repeated success you need to know who's hot and who is not. Goals against average, power-play efficiency, home record versus away (very key) Are just a some of the many stats worth considering before deciding which bets you want to make. Also, don’t overlook most recent trend data when evaluating the stats. Hockey, not unlike baseball, is one of those very streaky sports. A team can win or lose games in bunches depending on all kinds of factors, like time of year, composition of the lineup length of a road trip or other motivational factors. Bonus NHL Betting Tip
I always like to note where a team is playing, consider betting against east coast teams playing on the west coach late at night, or betting against west coast teams playing the early game on the east coast. It may not seem like much, but these systems can be an important part of your NHL Betting Strategy.
NHL Betting Tip # 2 - Consider the Underdog
My second NHL Betting Tip is to focus on underdog and plus money bets.
NHL is another one of those sports with parity. The way an average NHL Betting season pans out, the underdog in hockey can be a good way to rake in profits. Winners and losers are usually decided by only a few plays and one or two goals. Additionally, the NHL has one of the most limiting salary caps in professional sports. this promote a far more even distribution of top talent. Just look at a team like the Boston Bruins in 2014. They lost a ton of key talent due to the Salary Cap. Translation? — Almost any team, has a chance of beating any other on any given night. Take into account the factors from NHL Betting Tip #1 to help you figure out which ones have the best shot. Smart analysis is still key to finding the profitable bets, you should look for underdogs that have similar records to the favorite, but are playing on the road, or have some other disadvantage, that may not stop them from winning. NHL Betting Tip #3 - Pass on the Parlay
This is one of the most common things I see new NHL bettors wasting their money on. Yes hitting a 5 team winner would be great, but the odds are well stacked against you, and you are actually just multiplying the house advantage over you.
Take a single game action, and focus your bets like strategic strikes. When you spot an advantage make a single calculated play. NHL Betting Tip # 4 - Consider the 3-Way
Most of the time its best to just stick to the money line bets, this has the most limited number of outcomes, especailly due to the shootout format that the NHL now uses. Every game has a winner.
There are however situations where it may pay to place a wager on the 3 way line. If you look at the stats and notice that a team almost never ties on home ice, you may be well advised to make a play on the win in regulation line. This offers a better payout, but you lose if the game goes to overtime. You can check out the Stats on NHL.com to view past win loss and overtime records for every team in the league. NHL Betting Tip # 5 - Tackling the Total
This is the NHL version of the over/under. Much like in baseball or football.
This sports-books or odds-makers will lay their best guess on the total number of goals scored in a game. This is where you have to determine how defensive or offensive the game is going to be. There are some teams that for whatever reason, always seem to have very high scoring games when they play each other. The 2013-2014 games between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Philadelphia Flyers jump to mind. Most NHL games tend to land on 5 or 6 goal totals, but there will be some situations where teams will get into lots of fast break races and they will run the score up, there will also be games where two goal tenders are on hot streaks and they will likely be a defensive match up. Look for trends and make your bets accordingly. Pay attention to what’s happening around the league and the Total bet can become one of the most profitable you make. NHL Betting Tip Summary
Overall NHL Handicapping is one of the easier sports to master, as you have a limited number of factors at play. For the most part the same team plays the whole game, you can bank on players having somewhat consistent ice time and you can easily spot trends to help you make smarter sports bets.
If you are ready to take your NHL Handicapping to the next level, consider investing in Rob Holidays - Sharp Sports Investing NHL System. It is fully guaranteed and its the same system I use to rake in the profits. Rob Holiday Are you interested in more Betting Tips, Advanced Strategy and some of the BEST Free Sports picks? Join my Email list
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Sports Handicapping tricks to look out for.
Now that football season is in full swing, there are no shortages of handicappers out there vying for your attention. Some are decent hard-working handicappers who can help you during the course of the season, although they are definitely the minority, especially once you enter the realm of paid handicappers and sports services. Analyzing a handicapper’s worth can be a daunting task, as many of the rules that govern everyday life can be thrown out the window in the world of sports handicappers.
The adage of “you get what you pay for” is one that can be safely discarded in the handicapping business. If you’re looking at two televisions and one cost $1,000 and the other costs $300, it’s a pretty safe assumption that the more expensive one is going to be better. With paid handicappers, more expensive doesn’t necessarily mean better and many times it’s just the opposite. Those who charge hefty amounts for selections pretty much derive their income from selling picks, while those who charge lower amounts are more likely to derive some of their income from betting their picks, which is a big difference.
Because handicappers aren’t regulated in any manner, they are free to make claims that they wish. Some are outright fabrications, but even those who are truthful about their records can be quite a bit misleading if they choose. A handicapper can boast a winning percentage of 63% and be entirely honest in that regard, but without knowing what those wagers were, the winning percentage is pretty meaningless. If that 63% was obtained by betting huge money line favorites, it’s quite possible that the 63% handicapper cost his followers plenty of money even though they won games far more often than they lost them.
Handicappers who select only underdogs in baseball and hockey may win less than 50% of the time, but could be showing a nice profit with a winning percentage in the mid-40s. It’s all a question of what the odds were on the games that were played.
If you’re thinking that units won are a better indicator, you’re absolutely correct, but that can be manipulated almost as easily. One of the better-known handicappers around rates his plays between 10 dimes and 150 dimes. No self-respecting bettor is going to wager 15 times the amount on one game as another, but from the handicapper’s perspective, it’s a great thing, as he can lose three or four 10 or 20 dime plays in a row and turn around and release a 100 dime play. If it wins, he can honestly claim to be up 50 dimes. If it loses, simply release a 150 dime play next and look to get even with a 1-5 record.
Betting more on one game than another is perfectly reasonable, as you simply like some games more than others, but there needs to be some proximity in bet sizes and even your best plays should never exceed 5% of your bankroll. Those occasions should be rare, with the majority of your wagers in the 2% to 3% range.
Another common tactic is to create a low monetary unit, but specify a 10-unit wager on all games. This is the sports handicappers equivalent of the “penny slots” that require a 400-unit bet to win the jackpot. A handicapper claiming “a $100 bettor is up over $3,000 this year” could be telling the truth, but if the $100 bettor is required to wager 10 units, or $1,000 per game, they aren’t really $100 bettors.
When a season is close to the end is when you will see many handicappers increase their ratings. A handicapper who has been releasing primarily 1* and 2* plays all season and is down for the year, may start to release 5* and 10* plays all in attempt to get a little run going and be able to claim a winning season.
Closely related are those handicappers who release games with a wide variety of ratings and then selectively choose one rating to base advertising on. A handicapper can claim to be “shooting for my fifth 30* winner a row” which may be truthful and sounds impressive, but could easily have gone 1-6 in other rated plays since the release of the last 30* play.
Be wary of those who try to sell you anything resembling a Lock of the Month, a Game of the Year, or any other such nonsense. One game is no way of judging a handicapper’s worth. If the game wins, it doesn’t mean that the handicapper is any good, just as if it losses it doesn’t mean the handicapper is necessarily bad, although they should never have been releasing such a play in the first place.
Handicappers definitely have a large arsenal of smoke and mirrors to camouflage their true ability if they so choose, which makes it a difficult task for bettors to determine their true worth. Don’t be afraid to dig a little bit deeper and ask questions. An honest handicapper has nothing to hide and should be more than happy to explain their approach to sports betting and answer any questions that you may have regarding their record.
If you want to check out my past results, I post all of my picks to the VIP Results page ever couple of days.
Rob
The adage of “you get what you pay for” is one that can be safely discarded in the handicapping business. If you’re looking at two televisions and one cost $1,000 and the other costs $300, it’s a pretty safe assumption that the more expensive one is going to be better. With paid handicappers, more expensive doesn’t necessarily mean better and many times it’s just the opposite. Those who charge hefty amounts for selections pretty much derive their income from selling picks, while those who charge lower amounts are more likely to derive some of their income from betting their picks, which is a big difference.
Because handicappers aren’t regulated in any manner, they are free to make claims that they wish. Some are outright fabrications, but even those who are truthful about their records can be quite a bit misleading if they choose. A handicapper can boast a winning percentage of 63% and be entirely honest in that regard, but without knowing what those wagers were, the winning percentage is pretty meaningless. If that 63% was obtained by betting huge money line favorites, it’s quite possible that the 63% handicapper cost his followers plenty of money even though they won games far more often than they lost them.
Handicappers who select only underdogs in baseball and hockey may win less than 50% of the time, but could be showing a nice profit with a winning percentage in the mid-40s. It’s all a question of what the odds were on the games that were played.
If you’re thinking that units won are a better indicator, you’re absolutely correct, but that can be manipulated almost as easily. One of the better-known handicappers around rates his plays between 10 dimes and 150 dimes. No self-respecting bettor is going to wager 15 times the amount on one game as another, but from the handicapper’s perspective, it’s a great thing, as he can lose three or four 10 or 20 dime plays in a row and turn around and release a 100 dime play. If it wins, he can honestly claim to be up 50 dimes. If it loses, simply release a 150 dime play next and look to get even with a 1-5 record.
Betting more on one game than another is perfectly reasonable, as you simply like some games more than others, but there needs to be some proximity in bet sizes and even your best plays should never exceed 5% of your bankroll. Those occasions should be rare, with the majority of your wagers in the 2% to 3% range.
Another common tactic is to create a low monetary unit, but specify a 10-unit wager on all games. This is the sports handicappers equivalent of the “penny slots” that require a 400-unit bet to win the jackpot. A handicapper claiming “a $100 bettor is up over $3,000 this year” could be telling the truth, but if the $100 bettor is required to wager 10 units, or $1,000 per game, they aren’t really $100 bettors.
When a season is close to the end is when you will see many handicappers increase their ratings. A handicapper who has been releasing primarily 1* and 2* plays all season and is down for the year, may start to release 5* and 10* plays all in attempt to get a little run going and be able to claim a winning season.
Closely related are those handicappers who release games with a wide variety of ratings and then selectively choose one rating to base advertising on. A handicapper can claim to be “shooting for my fifth 30* winner a row” which may be truthful and sounds impressive, but could easily have gone 1-6 in other rated plays since the release of the last 30* play.
Be wary of those who try to sell you anything resembling a Lock of the Month, a Game of the Year, or any other such nonsense. One game is no way of judging a handicapper’s worth. If the game wins, it doesn’t mean that the handicapper is any good, just as if it losses it doesn’t mean the handicapper is necessarily bad, although they should never have been releasing such a play in the first place.
Handicappers definitely have a large arsenal of smoke and mirrors to camouflage their true ability if they so choose, which makes it a difficult task for bettors to determine their true worth. Don’t be afraid to dig a little bit deeper and ask questions. An honest handicapper has nothing to hide and should be more than happy to explain their approach to sports betting and answer any questions that you may have regarding their record.
If you want to check out my past results, I post all of my picks to the VIP Results page ever couple of days.
Rob
8. Rob Holiday - @robsportspicker
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- Owner of Sports-picker.com, Expert Sports Handicapper. For the Calendar year of 2014, clients have gained over 125% bankroll return. Most known for a no BS approach and 100% transparent results. Rob actually posts his daily picks to a VIP results blog the Day after they go out to VIP clients. VIP clients are currently up over 25 units for the month of September already. That’s an over 300% annual return on investment.
- Followers: 2.1K
- Tweets: 626
- Recent Tweets:
- Free pick Friday's. We are on the Pirates today! Lock it in for a must win game. Full write up on the… http://instagram.com/p/ta7-HwNuls/
- Just posted a new article to the Blog, 2014-15 Preseason NHL Predictions http://www.sports-picker.com/sports-blog/pr
- Free pick Friday's. We are on the Pirates today! Lock it in for a must win game. Full write up on the… http://instagram.com/p/ta7-HwNuls/
- Owner of Sports-picker.com, Expert Sports Handicapper. For the Calendar year of 2014, clients have gained over 125% bankroll return. Most known for a no BS approach and 100% transparent results. Rob actually posts his daily picks to a VIP results blog the Day after they go out to VIP clients. VIP clients are currently up over 25 units for the month of September already. That’s an over 300% annual return on investment.
7. Chris Andrews - @andrewssports
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- A former casino owner and Nevada man for over 30 years, Chris Andrews knows more than thing or two about picking winners. His passion for sports betting led him to founding Against The Number, “a community of licensed bookmakers and odds makers, professional sports handicappers, sports writers and sports enthusiasts.”
- Followers: 10.6K
- Tweets: 19K
- Recent Tweets:
- “More hockey from @Westgate_LV NHL Division odds http://againstthenumber.com/westgate-lv-nhl-regular-season-points/ …”
- “I explain the terminology and how to interpret the information I put in my Daily Line Move Log. http://againstthenumber.com/wiseguys-sharp-money-and-line-moves/ …”
- “More hockey from @Westgate_LV NHL Division odds http://againstthenumber.com/westgate-lv-nhl-regular-season-points/ …”
- A former casino owner and Nevada man for over 30 years, Chris Andrews knows more than thing or two about picking winners. His passion for sports betting led him to founding Against The Number, “a community of licensed bookmakers and odds makers, professional sports handicappers, sports writers and sports enthusiasts.”
6. Todd Fuhrman - @ToddFuhrman
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- No list would be complete without Todd Fuhrman, a former Caesars’ Palace odds-maker turned inside source for FoxSports1. Few bettors are as active or as informative on Twitter. Fuhrman will Tweet out injury reports, helpful links, lines and an array of other valuable information on a daily basis, in addition to general sports-related musings.
- Followers: 43.8K
- Tweets: 32K
- Recent Tweets:
- “BET THE BOARD: #NFL podcast with @PayneInsider and I is ready to roll including a preview of tonight's #ATLvsTB game http://www.toddstake.com/2014/09/18/bet-board-pod/ …”
- “Listening to people talk about gambling on the #NFL as unethical cracks me up...it might be the only "pure" thing left in the entire sport.”
- “BET THE BOARD: #NFL podcast with @PayneInsider and I is ready to roll including a preview of tonight's #ATLvsTB game http://www.toddstake.com/2014/09/18/bet-board-pod/ …”
- No list would be complete without Todd Fuhrman, a former Caesars’ Palace odds-maker turned inside source for FoxSports1. Few bettors are as active or as informative on Twitter. Fuhrman will Tweet out injury reports, helpful links, lines and an array of other valuable information on a daily basis, in addition to general sports-related musings.
5. Gill Alexander - @beatingthebook
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- Gill Alexander is a sports betting enthusiast with a passion for the NFL and his favorite team, the Washington Redskins. When he’s not ReTweeting breaking sports news, he’s directing followers to his Beating the Book podcast for the latest insider knowledge on American sports betting.
- Followers: 11.2K
- Tweets: 26.6K
- Recent Tweets:
- “Beating The Book: NFL MegaPod Wk 2 w #SuperContest Champ @4RichardStand, @MarcoInVegas, @VegasRunner: http://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/3061071 … #Eagles #Colts”
- “Random MLB stat: Nationals have longest streak of consecutive road games w 1+ HR this season, currently @ 20. 2nd longest streak: Nats (13)”
- “Beating The Book: NFL MegaPod Wk 2 w #SuperContest Champ @4RichardStand, @MarcoInVegas, @VegasRunner: http://directory.libsyn.com/episode/index/id/3061071 … #Eagles #Colts”
- Gill Alexander is a sports betting enthusiast with a passion for the NFL and his favorite team, the Washington Redskins. When he’s not ReTweeting breaking sports news, he’s directing followers to his Beating the Book podcast for the latest insider knowledge on American sports betting.
4. Chad Millman - @chadmillman
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- As the Editor and Chief of ESPN the Magazine, few gamblers are as well positioned as Mr. Millman to acquire the necessary information to put their money on the line. Millman loves Tweeting out links to bettor friendly podcasts, ESPN-sponsored articles, lines and generally sports-friendly facts and pics.
- Followers: 55K
- Tweets: 4K
- Recent Tweets:
- “Give it up for podcast guest host @DougESPN who grilled Scooch on nfl week 3 lines/action. He has a booming voice. http://bit.ly/1p1CqNc”
- “Game 4 of @ESPNMag #fansourced YOU vs. wiseguy challenge: LSU -5.5 vs. Wisconsin. Tell me who you like. Why?”
- “Give it up for podcast guest host @DougESPN who grilled Scooch on nfl week 3 lines/action. He has a booming voice. http://bit.ly/1p1CqNc”
- As the Editor and Chief of ESPN the Magazine, few gamblers are as well positioned as Mr. Millman to acquire the necessary information to put their money on the line. Millman loves Tweeting out links to bettor friendly podcasts, ESPN-sponsored articles, lines and generally sports-friendly facts and pics.
- 3. RJ Bell - @RJinVegas
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- RJ Bell has been calling shots in Vegas for years. When he’s not betting with or against the spread, he’s chatting it up with Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio or running his own business—Pregame.com. Bell loves to Tweet about breaking sports news, betting lines, random facts and other information of value for the competitive bettor.
- Followers: 89K
- Tweets: 16.4K
- Recent Tweets
- “#Falcons off a loss by 6 or more points: 18-4 against the spread the next game.”
- “#Cowboys as favorites after winning last game: 1-13 against the spread”
- “#Falcons off a loss by 6 or more points: 18-4 against the spread the next game.”
- RJ Bell has been calling shots in Vegas for years. When he’s not betting with or against the spread, he’s chatting it up with Colin Cowherd on ESPN radio or running his own business—Pregame.com. Bell loves to Tweet about breaking sports news, betting lines, random facts and other information of value for the competitive bettor.
2. Betting Talk - @bettingtalk_
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- Centered in the heart of the American betting community — Las Vegas, Nevada — Betting Talk isn’t an everyday Tweet machine, but it’s a great source for retweets and quotes on the news relevant to sports books.
- Followers: 34.5K
- Tweets: 15.6K
- Recent Tweets
- “Author: Federal statute prohibiting sports betting may have granted an illegal monopoly. http://www.bettingtalk.com/author-federal-statute-prohibiting-sports-betting-may-granted-nevada-illegal-monopoly/ …”
- “Lesniak petition asking Christie to sign sports betting legislation: http://raymondlesniak.com/start-sports-betting-in-new-jersey/ …”
- “Author: Federal statute prohibiting sports betting may have granted an illegal monopoly. http://www.bettingtalk.com/author-federal-statute-prohibiting-sports-betting-may-granted-nevada-illegal-monopoly/ …”
- Centered in the heart of the American betting community — Las Vegas, Nevada — Betting Talk isn’t an everyday Tweet machine, but it’s a great source for retweets and quotes on the news relevant to sports books.
1. William Hill Betting - @WillHillBet
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- William Hill Betting has one of the most active betting-related accounts on Twitter, frequently blowing-up follower feeds on a daily basis. Though they’re not American (they’re British bookies), William Hill Betting covers American sports, particularly the NFL, in admirable detail. Being based in the UK, it goes without saying they are extremely knowledgeable when it comes to putting out odds on soccer and golf.
- Followers: 115.2K
- Tweets: 87.8K
- Recent Tweets
- “What time will defeat be conceded in the Scottish Independence Vote? Before 3 AM 13/2, 3 AM to 5am 9/4, After 5 AM 4/9”
- “Both Tampa Bay & Atlanta lost last week’s matches. Who’ll be victorious in this divisional match up? Total points Over/Under (45.0) 10/11”
- “What time will defeat be conceded in the Scottish Independence Vote? Before 3 AM 13/2, 3 AM to 5am 9/4, After 5 AM 4/9”
- William Hill Betting has one of the most active betting-related accounts on Twitter, frequently blowing-up follower feeds on a daily basis. Though they’re not American (they’re British bookies), William Hill Betting covers American sports, particularly the NFL, in admirable detail. Being based in the UK, it goes without saying they are extremely knowledgeable when it comes to putting out odds on soccer and golf.
Looking at betting trends in College Football
Sports bettors tend to have short memories, but some degree of loyalty, which in this case isn’t necessarily a good thing. Teams that cover for a bettor one week are often looked upon favorable in the upcoming week, while teams that the bettor recently lost with are scorned for the next week or two.
Bettors also notice which teams are covering the spread and which ones aren’t and are often too eager to jump on the bandwagon. As a result, teams that are on a nice point spread run will eventually become a bit over-valued, while teams that are in the midst of a point spread a point spread slump will become under-valued. The oddsmakers know that bettors love winners and despise losers, so they will make adjustments in the lines and if they don’t make a large enough adjustment, the betting public will take care of it for them.
Looking at Saturday’s college football games, there are 10 teams that are undefeated against the point spread and the public is betting them, which has caused some large line movements in certain games. The Kentucky Wildcats, who are 3-0 ATS, opened as 13.5-point favorites over Vanderbilt and money on Kentucky has pushed the line to 17.5. Likewise, California (3-0 ATS) opened -11 against Colorado and the line has climbed to 14.5, as roughly 72% of the bets are coming in on the Golden Bears.
Even a team like Texas-El Paso, which is 3-0 ATS, went from +30 to +28 in its game against Kansas State.
There is one game Saturday featuring a pair of undefeated teams against the spread, Memphis and Mississippi. Ole Miss opened -21 and the line has held steady all week, with the betting pretty equal on both teams.
Teams that aren’t covering the spread will see the opposite, such as the case with Connecticut (0-4 ATS) in its game against Temple. The Owls opened as 3-point favorites and the line has now climbed to 7, as more than 80% of the bets have come in on Temple. North Carolina (0-3 ATS) has moved from +12.5 to 15.5 in its game against Clemson, as the Tar Heels are attracting just 30% of the wagers.
In the world of sports betting, a winning team can be a loser, such as Florida State. The Seminoles are still undefeated and ranked No. 1 in college football, but to sports bettors FSU is 0-3 against the spread, making it little surprise that Florida State has moved from -23 to -18 in its game against North Carolina State today.
Occasionally you’ll see a game where both winning and losing factors come into play, such as the game between Virginia (4-0 ATS) and Kent State (0-3 ATS). Nearly 80% of the bets in the game are coming in on the Cavaliers and the line has moved all the way from Virginia -21.5 to Virginia -28.
This isn’t to say that you should automatically bet against teams that are undefeated against the spread or wager on teams that are looking for their first cover of the season, but having a good idea which direction the line is going to move is a valuable tool for a sports bettor. If you happen to like one of the undefeated ATS teams, it’s best to bet on them early in the week. Would you rather have Kentucky -13.5 or Kentucky -17.5 today?
By the same token if you plan to go against a team that has been struggling, you want to wager early in the week before the lines move. Those who have North Carolina State +23 probably feel a little bit better about their wagers than those who take NC State +18 today and also have the option of shooting for a five-point middle if they so desire.
In sports betting, it’s not only you against the sportsbook, it’s also you against the betting public, as they are capable of moving lines quite a few points. When the betting public gives you an advantage, you should definitely look to capitalize on it.
Start watching the lines early and you can earn some extra profits.
Rob
Bettors also notice which teams are covering the spread and which ones aren’t and are often too eager to jump on the bandwagon. As a result, teams that are on a nice point spread run will eventually become a bit over-valued, while teams that are in the midst of a point spread a point spread slump will become under-valued. The oddsmakers know that bettors love winners and despise losers, so they will make adjustments in the lines and if they don’t make a large enough adjustment, the betting public will take care of it for them.
Looking at Saturday’s college football games, there are 10 teams that are undefeated against the point spread and the public is betting them, which has caused some large line movements in certain games. The Kentucky Wildcats, who are 3-0 ATS, opened as 13.5-point favorites over Vanderbilt and money on Kentucky has pushed the line to 17.5. Likewise, California (3-0 ATS) opened -11 against Colorado and the line has climbed to 14.5, as roughly 72% of the bets are coming in on the Golden Bears.
Even a team like Texas-El Paso, which is 3-0 ATS, went from +30 to +28 in its game against Kansas State.
There is one game Saturday featuring a pair of undefeated teams against the spread, Memphis and Mississippi. Ole Miss opened -21 and the line has held steady all week, with the betting pretty equal on both teams.
Teams that aren’t covering the spread will see the opposite, such as the case with Connecticut (0-4 ATS) in its game against Temple. The Owls opened as 3-point favorites and the line has now climbed to 7, as more than 80% of the bets have come in on Temple. North Carolina (0-3 ATS) has moved from +12.5 to 15.5 in its game against Clemson, as the Tar Heels are attracting just 30% of the wagers.
In the world of sports betting, a winning team can be a loser, such as Florida State. The Seminoles are still undefeated and ranked No. 1 in college football, but to sports bettors FSU is 0-3 against the spread, making it little surprise that Florida State has moved from -23 to -18 in its game against North Carolina State today.
Occasionally you’ll see a game where both winning and losing factors come into play, such as the game between Virginia (4-0 ATS) and Kent State (0-3 ATS). Nearly 80% of the bets in the game are coming in on the Cavaliers and the line has moved all the way from Virginia -21.5 to Virginia -28.
This isn’t to say that you should automatically bet against teams that are undefeated against the spread or wager on teams that are looking for their first cover of the season, but having a good idea which direction the line is going to move is a valuable tool for a sports bettor. If you happen to like one of the undefeated ATS teams, it’s best to bet on them early in the week. Would you rather have Kentucky -13.5 or Kentucky -17.5 today?
By the same token if you plan to go against a team that has been struggling, you want to wager early in the week before the lines move. Those who have North Carolina State +23 probably feel a little bit better about their wagers than those who take NC State +18 today and also have the option of shooting for a five-point middle if they so desire.
In sports betting, it’s not only you against the sportsbook, it’s also you against the betting public, as they are capable of moving lines quite a few points. When the betting public gives you an advantage, you should definitely look to capitalize on it.
Start watching the lines early and you can earn some extra profits.
Rob
NHL Handicapping Tips - New Rookies to Watch in 2014-2015
NHL Handicapping requires that you be aware of the new players entering the league. This year is no exception, so I have created this article to help my fellow NHL Handicappers.
Every year, the NHL rewards the best rookie in the league with the Calder Trophy – A prized award suggestive of future success. An early career gift from the all-powerful hockey gods.
The young man who wins award will join an elite club featuring some of the greatest to every play the game, including: Bobby Orr, Ray Bourque, Mario Lemieux and Martin Brodeur.
So who will win the Calder Trophy this year?—Probably someone from this list…
Every year, the NHL rewards the best rookie in the league with the Calder Trophy – A prized award suggestive of future success. An early career gift from the all-powerful hockey gods.
The young man who wins award will join an elite club featuring some of the greatest to every play the game, including: Bobby Orr, Ray Bourque, Mario Lemieux and Martin Brodeur.
So who will win the Calder Trophy this year?—Probably someone from this list…
15. Sam Bennett – C – Calgary Flames
a. Smooth stick -work and a high-octane shot made Bennett the fourth-overall pick in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft. It’s something of a miracle the forward was still on the board when Calgary’s number was called – The NHL’s Draft Bureau ranked him as the top North American prospect, ahead of first-overall pick Aaron Ekblad. So this year be sure to keep an eye on these teams and their new young talent. This time of year is absolutely fundamental to your overall season success in NHL Handicapping. Get your early season NHL predictions right and you will be off to the races.
14. Kevin Hayes – RW – New York Rangers
a. During his first three years at Boston College, Kevin Hayes pretty much dinked around on the ice. It wasn’t until his senior season when he realized he was actually pretty good at hockey, netting 28 goals and earning 39 assists in just 39 games. The Rangers are hoping some of that college magic carries over into his first NHL season.
13. Anthony Mantha – RW — Detroit Red Wings
a. Tony Mantha has two distinct skills that make him a likely addition to the Red Wings’ roster: goal scoring and more goal scoring. During his last two seasons in Juniors he slapped in 107 goals in just 124 games. Sounds like an NHL-ready talent to me.
12. William Nylander – C —Toronto Maple Leafs
a. He may look like he’s about 12 – he’s 18 in case you were wondering – but Nylander has the natural skill-set one would expect in a first-round pick. Oh yeah, he has NHL pedigree too – his father is former-player Michael Nylander.
11. Anders Lee – C – New York Islanders
a. Lee spent time bouncing around last season between the AHL and the NHL, but didn’t spend enough time at the pro-level to chew up his rookie status. Heading into 2014-15, it looks like he could center either the second or third line for the Islanders, assuming he performs in the preseason.
10. Filip Forsberg – C – Nashville Predators
a. Before you ask, no, this young Swede is not related to former NHL-great Peter Forsberg. But he is a former first round pick from the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. If Filip can tap into the power of the Forsberg legacy, he should do just fine in the pros.
9. Michael Hutchinson – G – Winnipeg Jets
a. Winnipeg is bad…Really bad. Sorry, Winnipeg. Taking that into account, coach Paul Maurice will likely be forced to make frequent roster and lineup changes which means Hutchinson, for better or for worse, could see a lot of ice time.
8. Antti Raanta – G – Chicago Blackhawks
a. Given the uncertainty of Hawks goalkeeper Corey Crawford, Raanta has a chance to take over the starting role for the Blackhawks, particularly if Crawford gets injured…which he will.
7. Mirco Mueller – D – San Jose Sharks
a. The 19 year-old Swiss blueliner is flying very much under the radar but has a real chance to make San Jose’s roster this season given their defensive unit is sorely in need of some younger legs. He plays an intelligent brand of hockey that could help him become a breakout player.
6. Evgeny Kuznetsov – C – Washington Capitals
a. One of the most exciting prospects of the 2014-15 season, fans are swooning over the potential of the 22 year-old Russian center. If he makes the Capitals roster, there’s a strong possibility he could end up a line with fellow countryman and future NHL Hall of Famer, Alexander Ovechkin.
5. Teuvo Teravainen – C – Chicago Blackhawks
a. The flighty Fin is one of the fastest skaters on the Blackhawks but he may not make the opening night roster due to the Hawks off-season acquisition of Brad Richards. Still, Teravainen’s offensive upside should make him a must-add come the midseason.
4. John Gibson – G – Anaheim Ducks
a. Gibson will likely start the season as a backup to Ducks goalies Frederik Andersen, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be the starter come the new year. With all-star net-minder Johnathan Quick between the pipes across town, Anaheim is anxious to turn the reigns over to their goalie of the future.
3. Aaron Ekblad – D – Florida Panthers
a. The first overall selection in the 2014 NHL entry draft, Aaron Ekbald is, quite simply, a freak of nature. Born in 1996—wow, that makes me feel old—the Panther rookie is just 18 years of age but absolutely poised to play with the big boys this season given his 6’3” 215 pound frame.
2. Johnny Gaudreau – LW – Calgary Flames
a. Though slight in stature – he’s only 5’7” – Johnny Gaudreau plays with elite skill and a ton of heart not unlike former Calgary Flames great, Theo Fleury. “Johnny Hockey”, as he’s commonly referred to, only played in one game in 2013-14 but that will increase significantly this season.
1. Jonathan Drouin – LW – Tampa Bay Lightning
a. The 19 year-old winger for the Tampa Bay Lightning spent all of last season crushing it in the CHL – He was named MVP of the league after carrying his team, the Halifax Mooseheads, to the Memorial Cup. Drouin will likely miss the start of the regular season with a fractured thumb, but should make an impact for the Lightning once he returns.
Pacific Division NHL Predictions
The Favorites -LA Kings, Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks
The Dark Horse - Vancouver Canucks
The Winner - LA Kings
California boasts the three best teams in the Pacific Division. Not bad for a state with no pond hockey.
Despite their off-season turmoil, the Sharks are a very good team on paper and play in front of the best crowd in the NHL.
Building on last seasons’ success, the Ducks signed high-slot sniper Danny Heatley this off-season adding to an already deep roster.
Still, the Kings are…well…the kings of the Pacific Division. Not only are they coming off an impressive Stanley Cup championship, but they maintained a roster as talented as it is experienced in the off-season. Expect the Sharks to contend down the stretch but fade into the playoffs.
The Dark Horse - Vancouver Canucks
The Winner - LA Kings
California boasts the three best teams in the Pacific Division. Not bad for a state with no pond hockey.
Despite their off-season turmoil, the Sharks are a very good team on paper and play in front of the best crowd in the NHL.
Building on last seasons’ success, the Ducks signed high-slot sniper Danny Heatley this off-season adding to an already deep roster.
Still, the Kings are…well…the kings of the Pacific Division. Not only are they coming off an impressive Stanley Cup championship, but they maintained a roster as talented as it is experienced in the off-season. Expect the Sharks to contend down the stretch but fade into the playoffs.
Central Division NHL Predictions
The Favorites - Chicago Blackhawks, Colorado Avalanche, St. Louis Blues
The Dark Horse - Dallas Stars
The Winner - Chicago Blackhawks
The Avs, Stars and Blues are all young, feisty clubs that use energy and physicality extremely well to compensate for any deficiencies in talent.
Keeping that in mind, the Blackhawks are still the most talented, experienced and resilient in this division. If Chicago can get consistent play out of goalie Cory Crawford, they could take the number one seed in the Western Conference.
The Dark Horse - Dallas Stars
The Winner - Chicago Blackhawks
The Avs, Stars and Blues are all young, feisty clubs that use energy and physicality extremely well to compensate for any deficiencies in talent.
Keeping that in mind, the Blackhawks are still the most talented, experienced and resilient in this division. If Chicago can get consistent play out of goalie Cory Crawford, they could take the number one seed in the Western Conference.
Atlantic Division NHL Predictions
The Favorites - Boston Bruins, Montreal Canadiens, Tampa Bay Lightning
The Dark Horse - Toronto Maple Leafs
The Winner - Boston Bruins
The Bruins and Canadiens were both playoff teams last year while the Lightning still played admirably despite the early loss of their best player in Steven Stamkos.
All three teams enter 2014-15 healthy and reloaded.
Then there are the Toronto Maple Leafs, an enigma of a team rich in history but mired in mediocrity.
But you know what?—This team is going to surprise people this season. Phil Kessel, Jamie Van Riemsdyk, Dion Phaneuf…the Leafs have the anchors to contend in big games and enough of a chip in their shoulder to win them. But who am I kidding… they don’t have enough to overtake the dominance of the Bruins. Look for a lot of puck line plays on the Bruins in my VIP client pick this year. Bruins take it this year.
The Dark Horse - Toronto Maple Leafs
The Winner - Boston Bruins
The Bruins and Canadiens were both playoff teams last year while the Lightning still played admirably despite the early loss of their best player in Steven Stamkos.
All three teams enter 2014-15 healthy and reloaded.
Then there are the Toronto Maple Leafs, an enigma of a team rich in history but mired in mediocrity.
But you know what?—This team is going to surprise people this season. Phil Kessel, Jamie Van Riemsdyk, Dion Phaneuf…the Leafs have the anchors to contend in big games and enough of a chip in their shoulder to win them. But who am I kidding… they don’t have enough to overtake the dominance of the Bruins. Look for a lot of puck line plays on the Bruins in my VIP client pick this year. Bruins take it this year.
Metropolitan Division NHL Predictions
The Favorites - Washington Capitals, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins
The Dark Horse - Philadelphia Flyers
The Winner - Washington Capitals
This is the year Alexander Ovechkin puts it all together and leads the Washington Capitals to the Stanley Cup!
Well, maybe not.
But he should lead the Caps to the Metropolitan Division crown.
Yes, the Pens and the Rangers will challenge but Sydney Crosby will eventually get hurt — like he always does — and it’s hard to see the Rangers finding the same well of luck they were able to tap into last season. I think this year could be the Caps year to finally pull things together.
For more info on Sports Investing Strategy and NHL Handicapping be sure to download my ebook
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The Dark Horse - Philadelphia Flyers
The Winner - Washington Capitals
This is the year Alexander Ovechkin puts it all together and leads the Washington Capitals to the Stanley Cup!
Well, maybe not.
But he should lead the Caps to the Metropolitan Division crown.
Yes, the Pens and the Rangers will challenge but Sydney Crosby will eventually get hurt — like he always does — and it’s hard to see the Rangers finding the same well of luck they were able to tap into last season. I think this year could be the Caps year to finally pull things together.
For more info on Sports Investing Strategy and NHL Handicapping be sure to download my ebook
Earn Money Sports Investing.
11. Peter King - @SI_PeterKing
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- One of the most plugged-in sports journalists out there, King is worth a follow if only for his witty commentary on the daily happenings of the sports world. He’s a recipient of the National Sportswriter of the Year award (2010) — so, um, he can write — and he helps to run Sports Illustrated’s Monday Morning Quarterback column.
- Followers: 1.35M
- Tweets: 26.6 K
- Recent Tweets:
- “Manning on Manning: "To ever watch film without a pen and paper in your hand is a complete waste of time." ... http://mmqb.si.com/2014/09/18/peyton-manning-denver-broncos-unplugged/?utm_source=fantasyleaguegm.com …”
- “Rice, video. Hardy, a judge. Peterson, photos. McDonald doesn't have that searing proof. If he ever does, he'll go. Not yet.”
- “Manning on Manning: "To ever watch film without a pen and paper in your hand is a complete waste of time." ... http://mmqb.si.com/2014/09/18/peyton-manning-denver-broncos-unplugged/?utm_source=fantasyleaguegm.com …”
- One of the most plugged-in sports journalists out there, King is worth a follow if only for his witty commentary on the daily happenings of the sports world. He’s a recipient of the National Sportswriter of the Year award (2010) — so, um, he can write — and he helps to run Sports Illustrated’s Monday Morning Quarterback column.
10. Pierre LeBrun - @Real_ESPNLeBrun
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- As far as NHL coverage is concerned, it’s hard to think of another reporter that does more than Pierre LeBrun, who writes for both ESPN and ESPN’s Canadian cousin TSN. LeBrun’s Twitter feed it constantly includes important league updates, roster moves and links to entertaining articles on the NHL.
- Followers: 393K
- Tweets: 17K
- Recent Tweets:
- “In my Tuesday piece: Mike Richards on his summer workouts, his lessons learned and more, http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/32541/mike-richards-not-content-to-be-kings-fourth-line-center … #lakings”
- “Looking at Mike Babcock's future in my Thursday blog: http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=nhl&id=32329&src=desktop …”
- “In my Tuesday piece: Mike Richards on his summer workouts, his lessons learned and more, http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/32541/mike-richards-not-content-to-be-kings-fourth-line-center … #lakings”
- As far as NHL coverage is concerned, it’s hard to think of another reporter that does more than Pierre LeBrun, who writes for both ESPN and ESPN’s Canadian cousin TSN. LeBrun’s Twitter feed it constantly includes important league updates, roster moves and links to entertaining articles on the NHL.
9. Jay Glazer - @JayGlazer
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- If Adam Schefter has a competition with anyone when it comes to reporting breaking NFL-related news, it’s Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer. The bald man with the well-shaped goatee, has been the NFL Insider for NFL on Fox since 2004 and though he not as “on the money” as Schefter yet, he’s pretty damn close.
- Followers: 668K
- Tweets: 11.1K
- Recent Tweets:
- “Both Roddy white and Doug Martin deactivated tonight”
- “Vikings have placed Adrian Peterson on Commissioner's exempt list, meaning he's shelved until further notice”
- “Both Roddy white and Doug Martin deactivated tonight”
- If Adam Schefter has a competition with anyone when it comes to reporting breaking NFL-related news, it’s Fox Sports’ Jay Glazer. The bald man with the well-shaped goatee, has been the NFL Insider for NFL on Fox since 2004 and though he not as “on the money” as Schefter yet, he’s pretty damn close.
8. Pat Forde - @YahooForde
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- Pat Forde has one of the keenest NCAA football minds in the country which is precisely why he practically runs the subsection on Yahoo! Sports. Prior to Yahoo! Sports, Forde earned his reputation as a writer for ESPN, particularly his “Forde Yard Dash” column.
- Followers: 257K
- Tweets: 28K
- Recent Tweets:
- “K-State lost as much as Auburn won, but valuable win on road against a pretty good opponent. Tigers could end up w nation's No. 1 SOS.”
- “Breaking: Texas Tech DC Matt Wallerstedt has been dismissed from the staff. Details coming on http://CoachingSearch.com”
- “K-State lost as much as Auburn won, but valuable win on road against a pretty good opponent. Tigers could end up w nation's No. 1 SOS.”
- Pat Forde has one of the keenest NCAA football minds in the country which is precisely why he practically runs the subsection on Yahoo! Sports. Prior to Yahoo! Sports, Forde earned his reputation as a writer for ESPN, particularly his “Forde Yard Dash” column.
7. Matthew Berry - @MatthewBerryTMR
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- Let’s not lie to ourselves, fantasy football has become big business and a large percentage of NFL fans play on a weekly basis in a variety of leagues both public and private. Matthew Berry is one of the most well-respected minds in the fantasy football world and he’s an active Twitter user to boot. Follow him for his weekly sleepers, injury updates and other inside info.
- Followers: 655K
- Tweets: 31.4K
- Recent Tweets:
- “With Doug Martin inactive Bobby Rainey is top 10. With Roddy out, Julio a top 3 WR, Harry Douglas a top 20 WR. Could see some Hester too.”
- “Whoa. RT @adamteicher Jamaal Charles is practicing with chiefs today. An interesting turn of events. Looked OK to me”
- “With Doug Martin inactive Bobby Rainey is top 10. With Roddy out, Julio a top 3 WR, Harry Douglas a top 20 WR. Could see some Hester too.”
- Let’s not lie to ourselves, fantasy football has become big business and a large percentage of NFL fans play on a weekly basis in a variety of leagues both public and private. Matthew Berry is one of the most well-respected minds in the fantasy football world and he’s an active Twitter user to boot. Follow him for his weekly sleepers, injury updates and other inside info.
6. Darren Rovell - @darrenrovell
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- A lot of people don’t like Rovell because he tends to talk the economic-side of the sports, a topic many fans try to stay away from. But the man who was once the sole sports reporter for CNBC now has a much more conventional role with ESPN, and his Tweeting habits, though still laden with sports-business factoids, have gone more mainstream.
- Followers: 506K
- Tweets: 76K
- Recent Tweets:
- “Fanatics: Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice & Greg Hardy jerseys represented less than .01% of overall NFL sales.”
- “CBS pays $39.2 million for each Thursday Night Football game, including, unfortunately, tonight's game.”
- “Fanatics: Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice & Greg Hardy jerseys represented less than .01% of overall NFL sales.”
- A lot of people don’t like Rovell because he tends to talk the economic-side of the sports, a topic many fans try to stay away from. But the man who was once the sole sports reporter for CNBC now has a much more conventional role with ESPN, and his Tweeting habits, though still laden with sports-business factoids, have gone more mainstream.
5. David Purdum - @DavidPurdum
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- David Purdham lives and breathes the Las Vegas sports betting scene, but he’s a journalist by trade which makes him a media follow. At the moment he covers all-things gambling for ESPN and frequently Tweets out interesting post/pregame facts, shifting lines and important injury/suspension news.
- Followers: 12.7K
- Tweets: 14K
- Recent Tweets:
- “Florida St. opens as a 7.5-point favorite in first half against Clemson @LSVSuperBook. Noles -16.5 for game.”
- “90% of the money bet on the New Orleans-Cleveland game was on the Saints.”
- “Florida St. opens as a 7.5-point favorite in first half against Clemson @LSVSuperBook. Noles -16.5 for game.”
- David Purdham lives and breathes the Las Vegas sports betting scene, but he’s a journalist by trade which makes him a media follow. At the moment he covers all-things gambling for ESPN and frequently Tweets out interesting post/pregame facts, shifting lines and important injury/suspension news.
4. Bill Simmons - @BillSimmons
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- The man is a legendary sports journalist. He started Grantland, helped get the ESPN 30 for 30 series off the ground and runs the BS Report podcast. Did we mention he’s an author?—No?—Well he’s that too, having written The Book of Basketball. If that’s not enough, Bill Simmons hails from one of the most sports-crazed regions in America, greater Boston. Follow this man.
- Followers: 2.9M
- Tweets: 12.7K
- Recent Tweets:
- “My last 2 columns: Week 2 picks/emails/Draft Day thoughts http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-sports-guys-week-2-nfl-picks/ … and the Goodell Must-Go-Bag http://grantland.com/the-triangle/roger-goodell-need-to-step-down/ …”
- “The best NBA writer ever on the wasted life of one of the best NBA talents ever: Bob Ryan on Marvin Barnes. http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/09/09/marvin-barnes-what-talent-what-waste/cSySkkPcHZaswmWuEZSIPL/story.html …”
- “My last 2 columns: Week 2 picks/emails/Draft Day thoughts http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-sports-guys-week-2-nfl-picks/ … and the Goodell Must-Go-Bag http://grantland.com/the-triangle/roger-goodell-need-to-step-down/ …”
- The man is a legendary sports journalist. He started Grantland, helped get the ESPN 30 for 30 series off the ground and runs the BS Report podcast. Did we mention he’s an author?—No?—Well he’s that too, having written The Book of Basketball. If that’s not enough, Bill Simmons hails from one of the most sports-crazed regions in America, greater Boston. Follow this man.
3. Michael Wilbon - @RealMikeWilbon
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- Not the most frequent Twitter user, Michael Wilbon aims for quality rather than quantity in his Tweets. Though he’s a Chicago-first journalist when it comes to sports news, he’s not a beat writer. As the co-host of ESPN’s PTI he talks plenty of Big 4 sports headlines on social media.
- Followers: 1.5M
- Tweets: 4.7K
- Recent Tweets
- “People will crush Kap for the TOs but the Conte and Fuller picks were great def plays, breaking on the ball, sure-handed catches...Def. A+”
- “So incredibly sad to see Paul George injured like that...my first thought was of Joe Theisman's injury 30 years ago...All the best to Paul.”
- “People will crush Kap for the TOs but the Conte and Fuller picks were great def plays, breaking on the ball, sure-handed catches...Def. A+”
- Not the most frequent Twitter user, Michael Wilbon aims for quality rather than quantity in his Tweets. Though he’s a Chicago-first journalist when it comes to sports news, he’s not a beat writer. As the co-host of ESPN’s PTI he talks plenty of Big 4 sports headlines on social media.
2. Adam Schefter - @AdamSchefter
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- Adam Schefter may only cover one sport, but man does he cover the hell out of it. He’s ESPN’s go-to source for inside information and breaking news on the NFL, so you know Schefter isn’t just an average reporter. He Tweets consistently during the NFL season and absolutely dominates Twitter going into pregame on Sunday.
- Followers: 3.1M
- Tweets: 25K
- Recent Tweets
- “And Bucs have deactivated RB Doug Martin.”
- “49ers DL Ray McDonald arrested, not charged. Different stage in legal process than other two cases. AP had indictment, Hardy a conviction.”
- “And Bucs have deactivated RB Doug Martin.”
- Adam Schefter may only cover one sport, but man does he cover the hell out of it. He’s ESPN’s go-to source for inside information and breaking news on the NFL, so you know Schefter isn’t just an average reporter. He Tweets consistently during the NFL season and absolutely dominates Twitter going into pregame on Sunday.
1. Scott Van Pelt - @notthefakeSVP
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- Oh, Scott Van Pelt. The man who made a name for himself as a SportsCenter anchor and one of the best actors on the This Is SportsCenter commercials, has dabbled in just about everything during his career: radio, sideline reporting and—you guessed—Twitter. He not always Tweeting the latest news, but he is usually blasting out pretty entertaining stuff.
- Followers: 708K
- Tweets: 35K
- Recent Tweets
- “Enjoyed it. Thx @UGAAthletics: Todd Gurley sitting down with @notthefakeSVP for @CollegeGameDay! #UGAvsSC #GoDawgs https://vine.co/v/OzXux0YxlwX ””
- “Just a gruesome day for B1G underway. Worst case scenario type of stuff.”
- “Enjoyed it. Thx @UGAAthletics: Todd Gurley sitting down with @notthefakeSVP for @CollegeGameDay! #UGAvsSC #GoDawgs https://vine.co/v/OzXux0YxlwX ””
- Oh, Scott Van Pelt. The man who made a name for himself as a SportsCenter anchor and one of the best actors on the This Is SportsCenter commercials, has dabbled in just about everything during his career: radio, sideline reporting and—you guessed—Twitter. He not always Tweeting the latest news, but he is usually blasting out pretty entertaining stuff.
Profit from NFL Public Betting Percentages
This article explains what the Public Betting Percentages are actually telling you, and also how you can use this information when making your picks in the NFL.
Many sportsbooks will provide what are known as public betting percentages either to their customers or to companies that track odds and report on what bettors are doing. There really is no harm in doing so and public betting percentages are simply the amount of bets that are placed at a sportsbook, not the amount of money that is bet on either side. From a public betting percentage standpoint, sportsbooks do not differentiate between a casual bettor placing a $22 wager on the Chicago Bears or a professional bettor placing an $11,000 wager on the New York Jets. Each team is credited with having received one bet.
Many sportsbooks will provide what are known as public betting percentages either to their customers or to companies that track odds and report on what bettors are doing. There really is no harm in doing so and public betting percentages are simply the amount of bets that are placed at a sportsbook, not the amount of money that is bet on either side. From a public betting percentage standpoint, sportsbooks do not differentiate between a casual bettor placing a $22 wager on the Chicago Bears or a professional bettor placing an $11,000 wager on the New York Jets. Each team is credited with having received one bet.
What the sportsbooks will not do is provide the betting percentages in relation to money wagered on a game.
Using the example above, the Jets would be receiving 500 times the amount of money bet than the Bears. While the sportsbooks won’t release the information, many times you can get an idea of which way the money is coming in on a game by watching the line movement.
You won’t be able to make a precise guess, but if the public betting percentages were showing 50% of the wagers on the Bears and 50% of the wagers on the Jets and the line moved from New York -1 to New York -2.5 you could reasonably conclude that more money is coming in on the Jets, even though the number of bets are the same.
People will use public betting percentages in several different ways. Some bettors like to be on the same teams as their fellow gamblers and look for those games in which there appears to be a consensus on one team. Whether it’s a belief in the old adage of two heads being better than one and since everybody agrees they must be right, or just a feeling of camaraderie by needing the same side as everybody else, these bettors find a degree of comfort in the safety in numbers train of thought.
You won’t be able to make a precise guess, but if the public betting percentages were showing 50% of the wagers on the Bears and 50% of the wagers on the Jets and the line moved from New York -1 to New York -2.5 you could reasonably conclude that more money is coming in on the Jets, even though the number of bets are the same.
People will use public betting percentages in several different ways. Some bettors like to be on the same teams as their fellow gamblers and look for those games in which there appears to be a consensus on one team. Whether it’s a belief in the old adage of two heads being better than one and since everybody agrees they must be right, or just a feeling of camaraderie by needing the same side as everybody else, these bettors find a degree of comfort in the safety in numbers train of thought.
How to Profit from NFL Public Betting Percentages
The more popular method of using NFL public betting percentages, however, is going against the betting public, a theory which on the surface seems to make good sense.
The majority of sports bettors are going to lose over time, so when the majority of bettors are on one team, why not go against them?
It’s hard to fault that logic, but unfortunately it’s not quite that easy. A bettor who hits 50% of their plays is going to be a losing bettor, but if you happen to bet against them, you’ll also be a 50% bettor and will end up on the losing side of things. In order to show a profit by betting against somebody, you need their winning percentage to lower than 47.62%, as the break-even figure in sports betting when laying 11-to-10 odds is 52.38%.
But there are several instances in which a bettor can profit from public betting percentages and going against the public when they are overwhelmingly on one side.
The majority of sports bettors are going to lose over time, so when the majority of bettors are on one team, why not go against them?
It’s hard to fault that logic, but unfortunately it’s not quite that easy. A bettor who hits 50% of their plays is going to be a losing bettor, but if you happen to bet against them, you’ll also be a 50% bettor and will end up on the losing side of things. In order to show a profit by betting against somebody, you need their winning percentage to lower than 47.62%, as the break-even figure in sports betting when laying 11-to-10 odds is 52.38%.
But there are several instances in which a bettor can profit from public betting percentages and going against the public when they are overwhelmingly on one side.
NFL Public Betting Percentages on Road Teams Receiving 25% or less of public money
Another NFL Public Betting Strategy is taking road teams receiving 25% or less of the public wagers have shown a 58-39 record since the start of the 2005 season and you can boost your winning percentage a couple of points if you focus on teams which missed the playoffs the year before.
NFL Road Dogs with under 20% of Public Betting Percentage
Closely related is taking NFL road underdogs who are receiving 20% or fewer of the wagers on a game, as these teams have covered the spread close to 57% over the past 10 seasons.
You’ll notice that both methods that were mentioned have you jumping in when at least three out of four bets are coming in on one team and then going the other way. As a result, you’re frequently going to be on some ugly teams and are you going to suffer your share of blowout losses, but remember that you don’t get style points in sports betting and losing 38-7 with a seven-point underdog is no worse than losing 21-13. Likewise, a number of the games that you win will be nail-biters, but once again, having your seven-point underdog lose 20-14 is no different than watching them win 28-17. The second scenario might be a little bit easier on your stomach, but your bet pays the same amount. In sports betting you either win or you don’t and if you happen to go against the huge public favorites, you’ll find yourself winning more often than not.
You’ll notice that both methods that were mentioned have you jumping in when at least three out of four bets are coming in on one team and then going the other way. As a result, you’re frequently going to be on some ugly teams and are you going to suffer your share of blowout losses, but remember that you don’t get style points in sports betting and losing 38-7 with a seven-point underdog is no worse than losing 21-13. Likewise, a number of the games that you win will be nail-biters, but once again, having your seven-point underdog lose 20-14 is no different than watching them win 28-17. The second scenario might be a little bit easier on your stomach, but your bet pays the same amount. In sports betting you either win or you don’t and if you happen to go against the huge public favorites, you’ll find yourself winning more often than not.
NFL Public Betting Percentage Reverse Line Moves
Another situation that can lead to a profitable betting strategy using NFL pubic betting percentages is to focus on teams that have a low percent of the public money, but have the line move in their favor. This usually happens when there are a few large bets from so called "Wise guys" or Vegas professionals. Notice in the graph below the line moves from -4 down to -3 with only 25% of the public money on Pittsburgh. This is known as a Reverse Line Move.
Hopefully this article was helpful.
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Author: Rob Holiday
My background is in business, consulting, finance and entrepreneurship
I started Sports-Picker.com to share my love of sports and to share my picks and strategy with others.
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