Pick #1 – Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
The game were going to set our sights on tonight is the Detroit Tigers (61-50) versus the Seatle Mariners (57-53) should be a war between two teams both fighting for playoff positioning. Were excited right off the bat to start this one as the expert money has already shifted this from a 8 over/under total down a half point to a 7.5 giving us a great opening read on the UNDER. Breaking open some of the key numbers for this game we note that the total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games on the road hioghlighting the fact that they are having a bit of trouble as of late producing away from home. In addition to this the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Detroit so we get a team struggling to score on the road against a team they struggle to score against in gerneral setting up a perfect combination of scenarios to creat yet another UNDER play. These two teams played an identical pitching matchup in June where the end result was a 5-1 Tigers victory so we have to think much of the same low scoring output will be seen again today. Both teams look to continue their lockdown piching and defense and the public consensus is on the same side as this MLB total spread is regestering a 55% public money push towards the UNDER. The Detroit Tigers produce 4.77 runs this year and the Seattle Mariners show up with 4.67 so this I a very situational play when contemplating the UNDER. The park factor for this game is the lowest on the board with a -85 rating so very favorable conditions for the bats to show no signs of life while the pitchers to excel. The weather at Safeco Field is looking like 57°F, Mostly Sunny , Humidity is 88% and Wind is S 5 mph so perfect conditions for lockdown pitching. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Michael Fulmer (R) has been pitching out of his mind recently with and absurdly low 1.35 ERA on the month. He also just smokes past SEA hitting giving up a miniscule 2.08 ERA. Also Hisashi Iwakuma (R) fares very well against right handed hitters at a rate of a .259 batting average which bodes well in tonights matchup (7/9 RH hitters on the Tigers). The computer predicted score for this matchup is 8 so no big prediction output lean for this wager but we have to feel good about getting the UNDER here at 7.5 which should take us home to victory. Game Time: Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners - Monday, August 08, 2016 10:10 PM Spread: 965 Detroit Tigers +1½ -190 +111 966 Seattle Mariners -1½ +165 -121 Total: 965 Detroit Tigers Over 7½ -110 966 Seattle Mariners Under 7½ -110 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 7.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals
The game were dissecting tonight is the Atlanta Braves (39-69) versus the St. Louis Cardinals (57-51) and its the tale of one sliding into playoff oblivion while the other fights for their postseason lives. Were excited about this one from the get go as the savvy money has already pile up on the OVER moving this opening 8 over/under total to an 8.5 giving us strong signals were on the right track with this pick. Delving right into some of the key numbers for this contest we note that the total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 8 games and its becoming clear that the bats are coming alive for one of the best home run hitting teams in baseball as the wins become increasingly important down the stretch. When these two teams last played in April the score was 12-7 and 12-2 for the last two times they faced off giving us every impression that are putting up runs is never an issue when these two teams meet further helping are confidence about where this pick is going. The teams look to step it up down the home stretch and the public consensus seems to feel the same way as this MLB total spread is pushing max levels on the leaderboard with an 83% push towards the OVER. The St. Louis Cardinals produce 5.03 runs this year and the Atlanta Braves show up with 3.48 (this number has actually been rising as of late) runs on average for the season so just purely on standard stat alone we get to this OVER no problem. The park factor for this game is at a not that stellar -90 rating but we get a huge 14 mph wind out to right center so should be a prime opportunity for some offensive chaos to ensue. The weather at Bush Stadium is looking like 80°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 71% and the Wind is N 3 mph so should be no problem for the bats to find a groove. Another stat we have to feel solid about that points to the OVER in this contest is the fact that the Braves are dealing with an injured relief staff and while Jim Johnson has been holding it down it will be interesting to see if he can keep it up so we can expect some runs in the later innings here. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher Joel De La Cruz (R) pitches terribly on the road with a 5.56 ERA. He also just gets lit by left handed hitting giving up a whopping .304 batting average (4/9 LH hitters on Cardinals tonight) which should make hitting the over that much easier. Also Jaime Garcia (L) has been doing terrible as of late giving up an outstanding 16.20 ERA over the last 7 days. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 8.6 so hitting the total in this one seems to have all the right factors going for it and we will take the OVER here at 8.5 and feel great about the value were getting. Game Time: Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals - Friday, August 05, 2016 8:15 PM Spread: 905 Atlanta Braves +1½ -110 +210 906 St. Louis Cardinals -1½ -110 -230 Total: 905 Atlanta Braves Over 8½ +100 906 St. Louis Cardinals Under 8½ -120 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: OVER 8.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
The game were focusing our sights on tonight is the Oakland A's (47-59) versus the Los Angeles Angels (48-58) and its a battle between two teams that have been slumping for the most part of the season. This bet gets us excited just on the surface as the savvy money has moved the opening over/under line from 8.5 to 9 giving us a great first impression of where this score is headed. The value of the bet becomes even more evident once we start to breakdown the more finite stats such as the fact that the total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing Oakland. In addition to this particular number the total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland so this is a very favorable situational matchup that we will be happy to take advantage of. When these two teams played their last game which was yesterday the score was 4-5 making it very clear that these two teams are lighting it up when facing each other. The Athletics and Angels both look to make a late season surge and the public consensus seems to feel that both will keep up there hard hitting ways against each other as they have this MLB total spread at a reasonable 55% confidence on the OVER. The Oakland A's produce 4.08 runs this year and the Los Angeles Angels show up with 4.62 runs on average for the season so were getting right where we need to be for the OVER to have a great chance in this simply on averages alone. The park factor reading for this game is not that appealing at -86 but these two teams having been putting up serious runs when faced off against each other and with an additional 4 MPH blowing out to left center we have to think the scoreboard is getting lit up on this one. The weather at The Big A is looking like 69°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 72%, and the Wind is SW 2 mph so very nice conditions for the bats to come alive. Another stat we have to feel solid about that points to the OVER in this contest is the fact that the Angels have very questionable and injured relief staff so if the Athletics can push past J. Weaver (R) they should get a lot of favorable batting matchups late in the game. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher J. Weaver (R) does poorly at night showcasing a 6.53 ERA after the sun goes down. He also struggles mightily with right handed hitting giving up a .308 batting average to hitters (7/9 RH hitters on A's tonight) which should present problems for him. Also K. Graveman (R) does not fare well on the road this year holding a 5.15 ERA and gets hits by left handed hitters to the tune of a mediocre .253 batting average against right handers (8/9 RH hitters on Angeles). The computer predicted score for this matchup is 8.6 and we have to think it has missed some variables as based on the above the OVER 9 is looking extremely promising in this scenario so lets grab it at that and take home a win. Game Time: Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels - Wednesday, August 03, 2016 10:05 PM Spread: 925 Oakland Athletics +1½ -200 +100 926 Los Angeles Angels -1½ +170 -110 Total: 925 Oakland Athletics Over 9 +100 926 Los Angeles Angels Under 9 -120 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: OVER 9 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt Pick #1 – New York Yankees at New York Mets
Well its the start of the battle of the Big Apple and that will be the focus of tonight's bet as the New York Yankees (52-52) versus the New York Mets (54-50) both of which are fighting for a playoff run and to stay above .500. This pick gets us excited right out of the gate as the smart money has already spoken and shifted the line from 8.5 to 8 on the MLB over/under total for this MLB giving us every indication that this game has a strong chance of hitting on the UNDER. Diving right into some of the notable statistics for this stand off we see that the total has gone UNDER in 15 of NY Mets's last 19 games and the total has gone UNDER in 13 of NY Yankees's last 16 games so we get two teams that have been really struggling to find the scoreboard lately while also doing a great job on the defensive side of equation. In addition to this the total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Mets's last 10 games at home and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games when playing at home against NY Yankees so were really getting a very stadium and team specific opportunity tonight where almost every variable is favoring the UNDER. Both teams look to heat up down the stretch and for these teams that means bringing out the defensive clamps and the public consensus seems to feel top level defense and pitching will be the focus as well as this MLB total spread is coming in at a strong 60% on the UNDER. The New York Yankees produce 4.03 runs this year and the New York Mets produce 3.66 runs on average for the season so the standard production from these teams gets us to the UNDER mark easily. The park factor for this game is also an appealing -90 on the scale with 15 MPH winds blowing in and starred as a pitchers advantage so just ideal conditions for a low scoring affair. The weather at Citi Field is reporting currently at 81°F, Mostly Sunny, Humidity is 73%, Wind is NE 12 mph so an extremely nice setup for lockdown pitching. One great aspect of this pick is that both teams have an elite closing staff right now so at no point in this game should things get out of hand as far as scoring goes. A final and most important point to this pick is the fact that starting pitcher L. Verrett (R) is pitching the best he has all year with a solid 3.86 ERA over the last 7 days. He also just crushes at home and showcases a .329 while on his home turf. Also C. Sabathia (L) has been pitching his best lately as well with a 7 day ERA of 2.70. He also thrives on the road sporting a stingy 3.28 ERA while away from Yankee Stadium. The computer predicted score for this matchup is 7.1 so all signs point perfectly to go on the UNDER here at 8 and we shold be really happy getting this bet in. Game Time: New York Yankees at New York Mets - Monday, August 01, 2016 7:10 PM Spread: 915 New York Yankees -1½ +150 -112 916 New York Mets +1½ -170 +102 Total: 915 New York Yankees Over 8 +100 916 New York Mets Under 8 -120 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: UNDER 8 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games and be responsible when betting! Picks By TexasMatt |
Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books.
Authors
|