I haven't posted much of anything for NHL yet this year but I did some work over the holidays and I have a few models that I'm watching. Believe it or not we are making a play on tonight's game where the Leafs are kicking off a West coast road trip with a visit to the Pond. Game Time:
Wednesday, January 06, 2016 10:05 PM Puck Line Toronto Maple Leafs +1½ -220 Anaheim Ducks -1½ +180 Money Line Toronto Maple Leafs ML +143 Anaheim Ducks ML -153 Total Over 5 -115 Under 5 +105 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes Looking at this one the money line opened at -171 favoring the Ducks at home. The public is all over the home team with a ticket count at 63% on the Ducks. However the line is has moved a full 20% towards the Leafs showing a strong reverse line move. When I dig into the numbers it actually makes sense. After starting off the year with only 1 win over their first 10 games, they have turned things around and actually have a winning record since the beginning of November. They also play better on the road, away from the pressure of Toronto's hockey market. I do have some reservations about backing Bernier, as I think he is a terrible goal tender, but he has been doing enough to keep them in games recently, and he is slightly better on the road. We are following the sharp money on this one, it's one of those games where you probably won't want to watch it, but just check and see how we did in the morning. The Pick: Toronto ML +143 Get this line at 5Dimes. 1/6/2016 10:05 PM Hockey 55 Toronto Maple Leafs* +143 vs Anaheim Ducks Pick By: Rob Holiday The downswing continues and the last two picks have been a bit rough. In each bet we had one half of the game go completely to our side and one half going down hill costing us the bet. This was the first bet that put us slightly in the red so we need to really focus and get back to our winning ways. Only down a single unit since we started we are pretty close to having an even record and this no time to panic and every chance to work harder. 11 games in the NBA tonight so there is going to be a lot of action making it a great night to hopefully find some value and grab back some of those units we lost. The last two bets have felt a lot like Dirk Nowitzki must have felt last night when he got hung by the rim on a failed dunk after the whistle. If you have not seen the video its worth a look for a laugh. Its even better that him and Zaza have a friendly season long dunk bet and that it might count as a minus one towards it. We need a little more magic like Deron Williams game winning double overtime 3 pointer last night and less hang ups so lets get into tonight’s pick as we try to maneuver our way back into the green. Pick #1 – Toronto Raptors vs. Brooklyn Nets
The Toronto Raptors games have gone over the given total for today 11 out of there last 12 games and I can see no reason for that slowing down tonight especially given that they must win by 7 points on the road. Sure Demare Carroll might be re-hurt but he was never fully healthy for this current Raptors scoring run so this should not be a big factor. Toronto even has center Jonas Valanciunas back and fully healthy giving them even more scoring options on the floor. The big key here is that Brooklyn's starting point guard Jarret Jack (Joe Johnson also has a bruised thigh, though I think he plays) is out with an injury and his back up point guards in Larkin and Sloan are not very good. That being said the line still feels over compensated for this as the Nets still have lots of firepower in Lopez, Young and company. 6 out of 8 of the Nets game have also gone over today's over / under so we have to feel really good about the over in this bet. In addition to all of the above score a combined 197.4 and give up 200.8 again setting us up nicely for what should be a decent scoring game that hits its over mark without problem. Lowry and DeRozen should be able to eat up the depleted Brooklyn front court putting up a ton of points on there way to trying to cover the large -7 away point spread. While the money has moved the line 1 point down since we have been watching the bet I still like the value here and if we liked it at a higher total then the lower total is even more appealing. Bojan Bogdanovic has also been really stepping up his game lately and if he can get even little hot from the field it will be all the more a bonus. For all of the above reasons lets take the over in this one and look to pick up a couple units, get back into the positive and start moving the right direction. Game Time: Wednesday, January 06, 2016 7:35 PM Spread: 507 Toronto Raptors -7 508 Brooklyn Nets +7 Total: 507 Toronto Raptors Over 195½ 508 Brooklyn Nets Under 195½ Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: Over 195.5 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games! Picks By TexasMatt We got smoked on our first bet of the New Year and it seemed doomed when they announced Wade going to the locker room due to illness during pre game warm ups. Losing a fast pace playing scoring superstar a few minutes before game time is never good when you bet the over. As much as we would like to hope this was just a late injury bad beat we have to admit this bet was pretty much dead from the start so there might be bigger factors we need to reevaluate to get our game back on track. The Heat are starting to emerge as one of premiere defensive teams in the league so betting there overs will take a lot careful consideration going forward as well which is a nice lesson to learn from this latest betting debacle. The good news is were even in our record and still up one unit so its time to fight back and grab some of units we lost over the last few days. Its not often you can write or say this but shout outs to Jimmy Butler for breaking Michael Jordan's Bulls record (39 points) with points 40 after halftime against the Toronto Raptors in his last game. Truly amazing. Another observation we will need to note is that every game went under the total on New Years day. Do teams have New Years eve hangover syndrome? Something we will want to consider for next year... Now lets see how we can start some streaks of our own and get back to our winning ways of maintain a plus unites betting record. Pick #1 – Sacramento Kings vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
It was just announced that Kevin Durant will be sitting out this one which takes not only a huge amount of scoring out of play but also a weaker small forward defender (the suns small forwards just destroyed Durant on offense). Less scoring and better defenders playing more minutes should give the under some decent value when considering making a play. One of the most interesting aspects of this NBA over under total is the last time these two teams met (less then a month ago, December 6th) the score was 98 to 95 making the under of this total very appealing. Of other note is that the both teams score 214 combined but only allow 207.9 which is a full 7 point cushion which we simply can not overlook. The Kings have been hitting under this total more often then not lately and while the Thunder have been making a lot of over we have to give a lot of credit to having one best of players in Durant on the court which will not be the case tonight. We also have to like that the Kings have been really struggling on the road this (4-11) and also have made comments that they want to step it up defensively to become to form the elite team they know they can become. This was actually the last total released today so we have to believe the odds makers were having trouble coming up with and ideal line giving even more credence to the idea that this NBA over/under line might be softer then usual. With Durant out the Kings looking to be more defensive minded we will take a couple of units on the under 215 here and hope to get back to our winning ways. Game Time: Monday, January 04, 2016 8:05 PM Spread: 513 Sacramento Kings +7½ 514 Oklahoma City Thunder -7½ Total: 513 Sacramento Kings Over 215 514 Oklahoma City Thunder Under 215 Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: Under 215 (2 Units) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games! Picks By TexasMatt Well we did not ring in the New Year with a win the last pick being our first case where are prediction missed the mark by a wide margin. The minute they announced Derrick Favors was not playing the smart money started pouring in on the under and the bet looked from there. A terrible first half by both teams all but sealed are fate putting our first major loss on the books. Utah's next game without Favors went over so we have to think our assessment might have still been okay despite such a lousy result. The good news is that its a New Year and we are still up units on our picks. Like the Kobe Bryant farewell retirement tour its time to get back on the court and showcase our skills. Lets review tonight's New Years day games and see if there is any value to be picked up as we look to get back to our winning ways. Lets start this New Year off right by picking a winner and adding some units to our freshly minted 2016 bankroll. Before we do that though lets have a moment of silence for the NBA All-Star Weekend Shooting Stars Competition. Chris Bosh will not get to try to defend his title for the 4th year in a row as the event is no more. May we all hope that a new and better All-Star event will emerge from these ashes! Pick #1 – Dallas Mavericks vs. Miami Heat
Since I have been watching this line it has moved a point up which was one of the indicating factors in our last bet on which way the money thought the results would go. It was also a change in injury news that started to create significant line adjustments off the opening number. Here we see the same trend happening again. It was just announced that Deron Williams will be playing tonight and now the line is moving up on the total. Looking at the 195.5 Over/Under we see that the Mavericks have gone over this total in there last five games. While most of those games were without Deron we still have to love the pace of the current Dallas play and have to think Deron will not slow this down. Most likely attributed to the return of Parsons and a coach that is set on reigniting his team the Mavericks seems to be playing with a new confidence. If we look at some of the recent Heat scores we can see they have a real tendency to play at the pace that their opponent dictates. Miami is also fully healthy right now among there stars which is rarity. We can expect the Heat to try and match Dallas new fast play and with all superstars healthy on both sides of ball we should be in for a lot of scoring. 2 out of the last 3 Heat games have gone way over this total as well showcasing a possible new pace of play as well. They even shot over 50% against the Grizzlies tough defense in the first quarter of last game showing they have the firepower to out muscle even the staunchest of defenses. Both teams also score and give up more points then the total combined here which is another great indicator that we have some value on our hands(199.3 points and 196.3 points respectively). With a 3.5 point spread it should be a close battle with lots of scoring down the stretch. All the factors that went against last bet we get to try and counteract here so lets take the over 195.5 and pick up extra spending money for the new year. Here is to hoping to start 2016 on a great note! Game Time: Friday, January 01, 2016 7:35 PM Spread: 803 Dallas Mavericks +3½ 804 Miami Heat -3½ Total: 803 Dallas Mavericks Over 195½ 804 Miami Heat Under 195½ Betting odds provided by 5Dimes The Pick: Over 195.5 (1 Unit) As always bet within your means and bankroll. Enjoy the games! Picks By TexasMatt |
Help keep the FREE Picks coming. Sign up for an account at one of my recommended sports books.
Authors
|